Originally Posted by
TravisVOX
flsaders85 is right. Before getting too excited about it, you should run the same formula against a set of games that were not used in the original development sample and verify their results.
I use three sets of data...
1 - Development (60% of the events in my database)
2 - Testing sample for verifying the development formulas (20%)
3 - Simulation sample for using the formulas from step one and actually simulating wagering (20%)
You could get away with just two steps, but I found you end-up trying to over fit the second sample as well as the first.