[zacher]

Anyone have any good programs I have been using a site that can try and predict NCAAF and NCAAB but thats it...



The website is also only correct about 55% of the time and with 3 different methods that it plays the numbers are all over the place.


I like the different methods and different outcomes but tracking the site consistently for NCAAB on any given day the website is only about 50% right and then you have to make sure you pick the right winners…like taking bad odds

Now the NCAAF is actually really well done and I would say when in season it was hitting 75% correct and you just had to take the picks off the computer…

I also understand this can be because basketball is such a swing game.


Now, my question is does anyone have a program or use a program that has a high percentage of hitting that has different sports and if so can you share, if you've developed it yourself, PM me and we can talk..


I am not looking for something that just spits out like PICK this game or a handicapping type service I am looking for a computer program that crunches numbers and spits out different outcomes using different scenarios and then I make the moves I like..


For those that have experience using different programs like this check in.

[Miz]

a lot of people have random number generators they refer to as models

[zacher]

I know, I was asking if you like yours and where you had gotten it or if you programmed your own.

I am trying to find one with more sporting options of have a different one with different sports that has a bit better numbers

[Miz]

nobody that has something that is actually successful will share it with anyone else without getting something extremely valuable in return. Besides if your website is giving you 55% winners even in just one major sport, you can retire now.

[zacher]

Im willing to pay money, thats not the problem there are programs that they sell out there that hit pretty reliable. And you can buy them BIG SURPRISE... not. It was probably something IT/Math Wiz that doesnt wager and just needs money created it using a common algorithm. They just know how to put the algorithm that you can find on a common google search into a software that you can run on a computer.


And heres the deal, it doesnt make the picks or tells which ones are more reliable thats for you, and its tough. But It does help, it does believe me I am a college student who has lived slightly beyond my means these past couple months since I have been wagering. And I am looking to continue to grow.

There are people out there that have programs they have bought they like that make a ton of extra income by being smart. its not hard to do the numbers dont lie. You can be profitable with a 52% win percentage and good odds.


Your not telling me anything I dont know dipshit

[matthew919]

Ok I'll bite. How much are you willing to pay for a program that generates an expected return of 120 units per season in a small market (~$500 limit)?

[weirimdi]

I can share a system which generated 189-149 in the NFL on ATS and TOT. 30+ profit and over 10% Yield.
Mine works on pen and paper, just need someone to program it into excel or other platform.
If anyone is interested, and i am no talking about money, just share of information, you can contact me.

[weirimdi]

Seems like I need some more Messages to reply to the PMs I got. Sorry that I can not reply sooner. I will get back at everyone who asked as soon as possible.

[zacher]

Thanks weiri but Matthew what's the sport and PM me if you wanna talk

[Miz]

Your not telling me anything I dont know dipshit

I think you meant "you're" not "your". You should study more and bet on sports less you little twat.

[zacher]

tight mix you're awesome your grammar is impeccable. it really is.


you honestly took everything I said and rephrased it, a second grader could've done that. but your fantastic.

[jtoler]

No offense, but think youre wasting your time with this, too many games are determined by situations, spots, and determination.

[zacher]

No offense, but think youre wasting your time with this, too many games are determined by situations, spots, and determination.

games vary but its nice to have a pretty good idea, find the games that seem the best than do the research, its a proven strategy, almost anyone who builds bankrolls and/or lives off sports has a system like this in place that analyzes outcomes using an algorithm.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

games vary but its nice to have a pretty good idea, find the games that seem the best than do the research, its a proven strategy, almost anyone who builds bankrolls and/or lives off sports has a system like this in place that analyzes outcomes using an algorithm.

Any that are shared or solid publically will get absorbed by the market, and produce nothing.

[nash13]

Do you make any progress with the spreadsheet I send you?

[zacher]

Any that are shared or solid publically will get absorbed by the market, and produce nothing.

Yeah I've been reading but that is also why in my opening to the thread I had stated that if you had designed your own that you could PM me and we could talk,


But we have started work on a new spreadsheet and formula now with java programming my friends a very intelligent IT guy, so hopefully we can pull data directly from a website database, second day working on it and I can tell you right now IF we ever finish it, it will be like the start of next college football season lol

[nash13]

best of luck, if there is anything i can do or you want to share information, contact me.

[Miz]

But we have started work on a new spreadsheet and formula now with java programming my friends a very intelligent IT guy, so hopefully we can pull data directly from a website database, second day working on it and I can tell you right now IF we ever finish it, it will be like the start of next college football season lol

That's the way to go. We all start somewhere. Not being a dick. Best of luck. Good luck with your model.

[JJones07]

Well, I created something like that, took about 2 years working by myself using only excel. I did this for MLB,NFL, NHL, NBA I took the data from ESPN imported into excel using data import, forgot exactly step by step. But once I got it in I added a lot of formulas, algorithms, to make it easy than typing each teams stats. Then used those teams stats that were selected to simulate 1,000 games, then from each of those games I got the average total & point differential. Of course I tweaked the simulation formulas to get more accurate results producing Totals and Spreads that were as close as possible to Vegas's lines. After I added a lot of Dynamic stuff, like typing in a spread to either team and project if they should cover that number, the same with the total. Of course I've been using this to help guide me to spot games numbers that were out of whack and bet those games. I never kept track over the years my winning percentage or record, until recently here on SBR. But I can say I have won more than I lost bet number wise, but got really confident on certain games and bet more than usual and lost a few of those so... Anyways here are screen shots of todays NBA games.

[nash13]

I am working on something similar like you JJones07 but I am still at the start of everything.
Maybe some people would like to contribute or help.
;
I am working on Rating Systems like Dunkel Index, Sagarin etc. I have some problems in collecting the data. So now I do everything manually. If someone likes to help PM me.

Manual results so far this year: 392-306 in NBA, NFL (ATS and TOT) I'd like to improve it for NHL, NCAAB and NCAAF

[Kababayan]

Check out procomputergambler.com. It may be something that you are interested in. If it's not what you are looking for, I apologize, as I just scanned the posts here and didn't read them too closely. Good luck.

[Dakota]

Check out procomputergambler.com. It may be something that you are interested in. If it's not what you are looking for, I apologize, as I just scanned the posts here and didn't read them too closely. Good luck.

been checking them out .....I notice they have 2 sets of plays...raw and their own selections..........r they decent plays to wager on?thanks for any info

[Professor1215]

Very interesting thread.

Looks like procomputergambler.com isnt worth $300 a year. Nothing more than a tout service, IMO.

It would be nice to find a group of people who have a common goal of working together to earn a long-term profit betting sports. I understand the greed that comes with gambling, but is it not logical to put minds together and work towards the bigger picture? Everyone wants to keep everything hush hush.

I would not want to share a secret with the world, but a group of dedicated minds could probably develop a more potent secret...something to think about...

[TheMoneyShot]

Yeah I've been reading but that is also why in my opening to the thread I had stated that if you had designed your own that you could PM me and we could talk,


But we have started work on a new spreadsheet and formula now with java programming my friends a very intelligent IT guy, so hopefully we can pull data directly from a website database, second day working on it and I can tell you right now IF we ever finish it, it will be like the start of next college football season lol

Zacher. I like the fire out of you man... but structuring an entire wager based upon logic isn't fool proof. I've been wagering 15 years of my life. Night and Day. There isn't any logical plan/model out there that shows + DESIRE and - DESIRE etc. + HEART - HEART. With that being said... money management based upon your own percentage bankroll is the key. Trust me on this. Even that one dude who had a model in the NBA who self proclaimed made 20 + million one year... but barely broke even the next year... sh#$ happens. Honestly it's about FEEL. You need to have a good sixth sense. If you can't feel out the game... you shouldn't be wagering. Other things to look at... opening lines... line movement... national TV broadcasts... the list goes on and on. Best of luck.

[nash13]

It depends on the people you meet. For myself I am willing to share and open for suggestions. It is not a battle between bettor and bettor for me, more like bettor vs the industry.

[zacher]

Zacher. I like the fire out of you man... but structuring an entire wager based upon logic isn't fool proof. I've been wagering 15 years of my life. Night and Day. There isn't any logical plan/model out there that shows + DESIRE and - DESIRE etc. + HEART - HEART. With that being said... money management based upon your own percentage bankroll is the key. Trust me on this. Even that one dude who had a model in the NBA who self proclaimed made 20 + million one year... but barely broke even the next year... sh#$ happens. Honestly it's about FEEL. You need to have a good sixth sense. If you can't feel out the game... you shouldn't be wagering. Other things to look at... opening lines... line movement... national TV broadcasts... the list goes on and on. Best of luck.

Thanks man, I wasn't really looking at a full proof model just more of one that gives me numbers that I can then put into consideration against all of the above.. more of a starting point, like I said the models I use now are good but limited in sporting options..

I haven't started work on it yet been busy with school and went out to vegas last weekend……barely made it out alive lol but it didn't get me this time.

[chunk]

Thanks man, I wasn't really looking at a full proof model just more of one that gives me numbers that I can then put into consideration against all of the above.. more of a starting point, like I said the models I use now are good but limited in sporting options..

I haven't started work on it yet been busy with school and went out to vegas last weekend……barely made it out alive lol but it didn't get me this time.

I think that you are on the right track here. One needs to start with the math and then incorporate other factors that are learned through years of experience. I'm not sure where feel, line movement (assuming no new information), or Nat'l tv games enter into the equation, but I guess we all go about this in a different way. Good luck with your search.

[Git Lo]

Zacher. I like the fire out of you man... but structuring an entire wager based upon logic isn't fool proof. I've been wagering 15 years of my life. Night and Day. There isn't any logical plan/model out there that shows + DESIRE and - DESIRE etc. + HEART - HEART. With that being said... money management based upon your own percentage bankroll is the key. Trust me on this. Even that one dude who had a model in the NBA who self proclaimed made 20 + million one year... but barely broke even the next year... sh#$ happens. Honestly it's about FEEL. You need to have a good sixth sense. If you can't feel out the game... you shouldn't be wagering. Other things to look at... opening lines... line movement... national TV broadcasts... the list goes on and on. Best of luck.

Makes sense but can't 'feel' be quantified? I think you look to much into desire and heart when the $$ already talks. If a player can't play with heart and desire he doesn't play for the league because there is another player who can do that.

[peacebyinches]

Very interesting thread, from the looks and sounds of things a lot of you have really put in the time and effort at handicapping from a variety of analytical approaches. I've also spent what seems like a frustratingly massive amount of time brainstorming different approaches/variables/statistics to use when handicapping. I have programmed some of my own handicapping software, but admittedly the majority of the approaches I used were either so overly zealous/scatter brained that you would think a mad scientist made them and were quickly abandoned when they got out of hand, or were just ineffective as a handicapping tool. I'd share them, but like I said, as the 'programs' (aka some functions I wrote in matlab) are now, no one would understand what the hell is happening (even I sometimes struggle to figure out what I was trying to do in some sections code I wrote a while ago) and/or would just be a waste of time since they haven't helped me improve my returns from handicapping.

The excel sheet jjones posted screenshots of looks very nice, even promising. Also, its made to be readable, something I seem to never get around to implementing with my stuff lol. If anyone wants to bounce handicapping ideas back and forth with me, feel free to pm, I'm always looking for new perspectives in general and helpful critiques about potential shortcomings of my methods madness.

[AOSpades]

Pretty interested in this thread. As someone who's somewhat new to sports betting using bankroll management, I've been looking for a place to start as far as developing my own model.

I'd be really interested to hear jjones07 talk about his a little bit and how he came up with it.

I also very much agree with Professor1215. I understand the whole idea of finding something that works and keeping it for yourself, but it seems like forming a small "team" would be even better as far as fine tuning a system.

[JJones07]

I don't mind forming up a group or team to build something or tweaking what I have. How should we go about doing this. We all ultimately have the same goal, lets get started. Any suggestions or questions post them or PM

As far as the basics of how mine works, or what I used to calculate the lines and totals NBA example:
TEAM A (Home) VS TEAM B

For TEAM A average points: TEAM B Points allowed per game PLUS randomly (-3 to 3), PLUS TEAM A Points per game PLUS randomly (-3 to 3), + Home Court which I use (-1 to 3), DIVIDE by 2

For TEAM B average points: TEAM A points allowed per game PLUS randomly (-3 to 3), PLUS TEAM B points per game PLUS randomly (-3 to 3), PLUS randomly (-3 to 3), DIVIDE by 2

Simulate those events 1000 times, record or find out how many times either team won and by how much on average. And add together each teams points to find out the average total of each game. In all events of a tie divide the ties by 2 then split evenly between the teams.

There you go, that pretty much sums up what I did. Honestly the hardest part was putting it all down and replicating each game 1000 times. That and making it organized, I hate clutter. Also making excel understand what I was trying to do with the numbers I put in. Then I got fancy with it and added a "dynamic" line and "dynamic" Over/Under. All that does is, type a number in and it searches for how many times that particular line or over/under hit, or projected to hit percentage wise out of the 1000 "simulations" here are some screen shots of that, using tonights LA Lakers and Charlotte game.

[nash13]

The main problem i see here is sample size. There has to be a certain starting point in the season. For NBA it should work ok, but for sports like NFL with much fewer games, there should be different ways. But this is a solid start.

[Git Lo]

What do you do about injuries? Nuggets with no Lawson tried to use Foye and Fournier for pg duties this changes the whole game.

[JJones07]

Injuries for me come second. If I like a team then find a key injury on my side I stay away, however if there is a key injury on the other side I like it more. But yeah what I have doesn't factor in any injuries at all.

I can't think of any way to incorporate injuries, only a fantasy type thing tracking each players average stat and simulating the same type of thing with minutes, of course a lot more work but could definitely be worthwhile once completed.

[Gradius]

One way to account for injuries in basketball is to determine a player's value compared to replacement level, and the player that will be starting in front of the injured player's value compared to replacement level. A replacement level player is worth about 2-3 points below average (average being 0 points). You might also try accounting for the pace (Point Guards and coaching are very important factors when it comes to pace).