[20Four7]

I was looking at some of my plays today and we all talk about beating the closing number as one of the keys to success.

Troy Arkansas U66.5 closed at 63.5 3 points
UTEP/SMU O62.5 closed at 63.5 1 point
Ken/vandy O44 closed at 45 1 point
Northwest/Illinois O48 closed at 50 2 points

ON these plays I am currently 1 win 2 loses with one game in progress. If I can consistently beat the closing number then overall these plays should be profitable.

I am starting to keep track of how much I beat/don't beat the closers to see if it does point you in the right direction.

[IrishTim]

ND opened at +7, closed at +5 at some places. Beating the closing number was the difference between a push and a win for some people.

[feltball]

Beating closers + bankroll management = $$$

[twister]

Originally Posted by feltball

Beating closers + bankroll management = $$$

Pretty much this.

[twistedheat]

Originally Posted by twister

Pretty much this.

Yep.

[Willie Bee]

Originally Posted by twister

Pretty much this.

Originally Posted by twistedheat

Yep.

Do you two know each other?

[byronbb]

I just started to do this over 90 plays running 2.5% ROI with a 50% win/loss, however if I take out those plays where I made a mistake and didn't beat the close the record improves to a 54% win rate with a 16% ROI (I've hit some ML dogs). The trick then is not making mistakes, which can be pretty hard. The most amazing thing I have found is how TERRIBLE some lines are, especially at small books and typically on favs. Today for example Pinny has Den ML -175 Wash ML +160. SIA is hanging Den ML -215 Wash +175. Betting on Den at SIA (which most of their bettors will do today) will give a long term return of -8%.