[hillardoh]

Is it possible to hit 70% or more on 2 team teasers?

[arwar]

According to Wayne Winston in Mathletics (p 260) from 2000-2005 teams covered 7 point teasers 70.6%, pushed 1.5% and lost 27.9%. He considers one/both push as a push, your win may be a bit higher on a push/win. But following his logic:

p(win) .706^2 = .498436
p(push)=(.015)(1-.985)+(.985)(.015)+.015^2=.043516
p(loss)=1-.498436-.043516=0.458048

the expected payout on 7 point -130 teaser is then 100(.498436)+0(.043516)-130(.458048) = -9.7
this is a win for the book. Still using the push logic from above, player needs to win 73.6% to break even.

[hillardoh]

wow that means I should be playing more 2 team teasers if both teams can hit 70% of the time. Why play against the spread if you can change it through a teaser?

[LT Profits]

Stick to Wong Teasers in NFL and you'll be fine.

[Snowball]

I've also done well with the Super Teasers. 3 or 4 team 10 or 13 pts.
Super Teasers only when the line will fall on a non-major point, however, because ties lose.

[Facepunch]

Whenever I do a teaser I find that I would have won a 2 teamer parlay outright.

so I have been doing a two team parlay, and hedging it with a 7 pt teaser for the price of the 2 team parlay.

I have also been doing three team parlays and hedging with 10pt teasers.

a little expensive when it goes the wrong way entirely, but overall its not too bad.

[Justin7]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

Stick to Wong Teasers in NFL and you'll be fine.

Bingo!

And I would add NCAAF teasers where you bet 1. home favorites from 7.5 to 8.5, and 2. the total is less than 48.

[arwar]

Here are the games so far this year w\ fav -(7.5-8.5) & un<=48
ATS the dogs covered 6-2 and the UNDER was 5-3
I don't know what the tease numbers are (6, 6.5, 7 ??)
It is only 8 games - far too small of a sample

e car 43' 17 OVER
unc -8' 31 <<<
----------------------
miss st 45' 15 <<<
vandy -8' 3 UNDER
----------------------
wake 48 3 UNDER
clemson -8' 38 <<<
----------------------
akron 46 17 <<<
buffalo -7' 21 UNDER
----------------------
uconn 47 24 <<<
w va -8' 28 OVER
----------------------
air for 42' 16 <<<
utah -8' 23 UNDER
----------------------
rutgers 44 28 <<<
uconn -7' 24 OVER
----------------------
duke 48 28 <<<
uva -7' 17 UNDER

[BET THE HOOK]

I play probably 65% of my plays as teasers and would say that while 70% of the teams on the teasers hit not 70% of the teasers win because a team loses here and there. I usually back my bets up playing the moneylines on the teams I like the most pretty big.

[BigdaddyQH]

Why would you play two team teasers in hopes of itting at 70% when you need to hit over 73% just to break even?

[The Seer]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

Stick to Wong Teasers in NFL and you'll be fine.

If I'm not mistaken 'Wongs' are crossing the 3 and 7, correct?

[HedgeHog]

Originally Posted by The Seer

If I'm not mistaken 'Wongs' are crossing the 3 and 7, correct?

You are not wrong on Wong. Tease through the NFL 3 and 7.

[arwar]

Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH

Why would you play two team teasers in hopes of itting at 70% when you need to hit over 73% just to break even?

i wondered if anybody notced that about 73%

[statnerds]

Teasing on the blind is a losing endeavor. I don't care what qualifier you slap on NCAAF, futile excerise as well.

However, I think if one had the deisre and time to dig and find some qualifiers on NFL, one could target some late season opportunites for tease.

forgive my lack of preparation, missing all sorts of data. i was tracking teasing the O/U of top and bottom 7 NFL teams in scoring from week 8 out and it clicked at over 80%, if i could find my damn numbers.

and of course when you can tease through the key numbers. should we mention 37 and 41?

[Kevy]

I have my 5Dimes account set up with what's called by 5Dimes "Vegas Rules" on my teasers. On a two-teamer a tie and a loss equal no action. Where at other books that would be a loss. I've always felt that Teasers under the right circumstances (juice and teaser rules that can vary book by book) are a great wager when selectively placed. But when players who are action junkies blindly play them, I feel they become worthless.

[arwar]

It always seemed intuitively obvious to me that 7 or 10 points is worth more in the NFL than in NCAA.

[hillardoh]

Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH

Why would you play two team teasers in hopes of itting at 70% when you need to hit over 73% just to break even?

the main point here is you are setting the spread not the bookmaker. Everyone here seems to quote the 73% however im just talking about playing 2 team teasers. I also heard that the sportsbooks in vegas alot of them dont have 2 team nfl teasers because they can hit often. Why does it seem so diffcult to make money on 2 team teasers when they can hit 70% of the time. I will take that versus most guys can barley hit 50% on a single game dude.

[statnerds]

Originally Posted by hillardoh

Why does it seem so diffcult to make money on 2 team teasers when they can hit 70% of the time. I will take that versus most guys can barley hit 50% on a single game dude.

because the 70% you quoted is for ONE team to cover the tease. and since you need 2 teams to cover, and the likelihood of each event is 70%, you would have a .70 X .70 chance of winning your teaser, or 49% as stated above.

so the odds on a blind tease (any 2 teams at random) are 49%

[LT Profits]

Right, the 70% is for each individual leg of teaser. Wong legs hit around 76%, thus they are +EV.

[Pancho sanza]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

Right, the 70% is for each individual leg of teaser. Wong legs hit around 76%, thus they are +EV.

76 % in NFL?

Not happening with a 6 point tease.

[LT Profits]

Originally Posted by Pancho sanza

76 % in NFL?

Not happening with a 6 point tease.

Yep, actually 75.2% from 1985 to 2008. That's why some books (Pinny, 5 Dimes) play with their spreads and some that do still offer Wongs no longer pay +100 on 6-pointers.

[Pancho sanza]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

Yep, actually 75.2% from 1985 to 2008. That's why some books (Pinny, 5 Dimes) play with their spreads and some that do still offer Wongs no longer pay +100 on 6-pointers.

You must have diffenent data from me, can't find a subset that high, not even through 3 and 7.

What #'s is that through?

Its the differential between regular/6 point tease that you want to use anyways.

Saying 75.2% is meaningless if the sides covered at 54 % without the 6 points.

[LT Profits]

Then I suggest you double check your data, I am talking specifically about Wongs only (Favorites with straight line of -7.5 to -8.5, Dogs with straight line of +1,5 to +2.5, all teased 6 points).

You can also simply Google Wong Teasers and you will find results similar to mine.

Wong Teasers add over 24% to the winning percentage without the teases (I get 50.8% ATS for non-teased Wong spreads).

[Pancho sanza]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

Then I suggest you double check your data, I am talking specifically about Wongs only (Favorites with straight line of -7.5 to -8.5, Dogs with straight line of +1,5 to +2.5, all teased 6 points).

You can also simply Google Wong Teasers and you will find results similar to mine.

Wong Teasers add over 24% to the winning percentage without the teases (I get 50.8% ATS for non-teased Wong spreads).

I get 49.8% and 73.3 % for those ranges, an extra 23.5 %.

Those probabilities are in line with pinnacle's prices, look at NFL games lined -7.5 through -8.5 for example, calculate the win probability and back out the historical frequency of games won by 1-2 points, youll end up around 73 %.

[Snowball]

buying points ATS and flat ML are the best bets for mitigating risk, however a large teaser increases odd payout rather impressively if you get 5 or more teams teased. Hit one tonight.
So I think it's fine to treat teasers like parlays with "insurance" increasing your odds, but still a big payout. Rather just add back-to-back SU's than risk a 2 or 3 team tease

[LT Profits]

Originally Posted by Pancho sanza

I get 49.8% and 73.3 % for those ranges, an extra 23.5 %.

Those probabilities are in line with pinnacle's prices, look at NFL games lined -7.5 through -8.5 for example, calculate the win probability and back out the historical frequency of games won by 1-2 points, youll end up around 73 %.

Are you getting those results for the same years I specified (1985-2008)?

[Pancho sanza]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

Are you getting those results for the same years I specified (1985-2008)?

Yes, 1142 games total.

[arwar]

i am glad there are actual numbers to look at as opposed to some unfounded claim. Is the difference you all are reporting due to the way pushes are handled?

[DaliJared]

Pretty sure when I bet them in 2006-2007 my record on the teasers themselves was like 148-34 or so, with like an 88% individual game win rate. Run hot is fun.