[WillC]

I've recently been combining all my daily picks into one massive round robin parlay and seem to be having great success. Not sure about the maths behind it tho

I've got this 6-fold round robin 9 leg parlay for today:

Cincinnati over West Virginia
Temple (-5) over Akron

Blackhawks over Toronto
NY Islanders (+1.5) over Carolina
Anaheim (+1.5) over Columbus

Rockets/ Kings Over 206.5
Celtics/ Atlanta Under 193
Portland over Hornets
Philadelphia (-2.5) over Utah

Apparently I just made 84 bets ... so 84 different 6 way parlays out of the above? I'm assuming 6/9 would break even ... with anything better making profit (without going into fine detail). Does any one else do these bets on a consistent basis and Is this a good method?

Staked $50 so should be interesting.
a potential win of $900 but doubt I'll get 9/9 ..

BOL for tonight.

[skrtelfan]

What odds does your book pay on parlays? If they pay true odds, your expectation is the same whether you bet straight or parlay, your variance is just higher with the parlays. If they pay the "parlay chart" odds, typically you get ripped off with parlays of 4 teams or more, with 2 and 3 teamers the only ones that pay close to true odds. (2 teamers pay a little worse than true odds, 3 teamers pay a little better.)

[WillC]

Just like normal parlays .. i.e. odds multiply so the more legs you put the greater value you get?
Round robin parlays are the same except theres a bit of insurance in case you get 1 or 2 wrong.

Anyways, almost Hit the jackpot tonight

Cincinnati over West Virginia WIN
Temple (-5) over Akron WIN

Blackhawks over Toronto WIN
NY Islanders (+1.5) over Carolina WIN
Anaheim (+1.5) over Columbus WIN

Rockets/ Kings Over 206.5 WIN
Celtics/ Atlanta Under 193 WIN
Portland over Hornets WIN
Philadelphia (-2.5) over Utah LOSS

Still managed to turn $50 into $280 thanks to the round robin parlay system.
Happy days

[steady hustlin]

But think about it man you just went 8/9 if you bet those straight up you would've done better. Personally I think Round Robin Parlays are garbage. Just do it once if you want to parlay it. Not to get to preechy but you should max out a parlay as a 3 teamer, 4 teamer at the absolute most if you want to make money. Those are good picks. Get more value from them.
Peace.

[skrtelfan]

I don't know what you mean by "normal parlays." There are books that pay the fair odds on parlays, i.e. on -110 bets, (1.91^X) - 1, where X equals the number of legs in the parlay, so a 4 teamer would pay +1228, but a lot of other books use a parlay chart where a 4 teamer only pays +1000. In that case you're getting ripped off compared to betting straight.

[bookie]

The mathematics of RR parlays is very ably discussed by a basic but still well done book on football betting called Win More, Lose Less.

http://gamblersbook.com/product.php?...cat=903&page=2

[arwar]

cincy -10 v WVA didn't cover

[WillC]

Originally Posted by steady hustlin

But think about it man you just went 8/9 if you bet those straight up you would've done better. Personally I think Round Robin Parlays are garbage. Just do it once if you want to parlay it. Not to get to preechy but you should max out a parlay as a 3 teamer, 4 teamer at the absolute most if you want to make money. Those are good picks. Get more value from them.
Peace.

That's kind of true, but aren't parlays all about big payouts?, if I had went 9/9, then the profit would have been over $900. However, I would've lost my stake if used a normal parlay despite going 8/9, instead the round robin acted as a 'safety net'

Probably was a big risk to add so many picks. Will take this on board and max out on 4 or 5 teams per parlay.

Originally Posted by skrtelfan

There are books that pay the fair odds on parlays, i.e. on -110 bets, (1.91^X) - 1, where X equals the number of legs in the parlay, so a 4 teamer would pay +1228

This is correct for mine.

Originally Posted by arwar

cincy -10 v WVA didn't cover

Didn't take the line ..

[arwar]

cincy -380 on ML changed the payouts

[Snowball]

Round Robins only work when you have no more than one "iffy" entry.
Say you have 5. At least 4 should be top picks for you. (and possible ML not ATS)
In other words, one loss the bet is still very profitable, but 2, much less.

[skrtelfan]

If your book is paying +1228 on a 4 team parlay at -110, it won't change your expectation betting round robins vs straight bets, it will just increase your variance. The proper kelly bet size is different for parlays vs straight bets, of course.