Originally Posted by
a4u2fear
Using a points system, I have come up with a way to estimate each teams points for in each game.
Since I have every total since 2003 in Excel, I have the luxury of going back through and seeing how my estimates stack up versus the totals set by Vegas. These totals have ZERO trends in them. All based on stats from their prior games to estimate the current week's game.
The stats below start in 2003 and I do not bet any lines until week 7 (so there is more consistency in team's performances)
I add up both team's estimated scores and if there is a 4pt differential between my estimated total score compared to the vegas total, there were 81 occurrences since 2003 hitting at 59.3% rate. i.e. If my estimate is 4pts lower than vegas line, bet under, if 4pts higher, bet over.
For a 7pt differential between my line and vegas, hits at 66.7% (60 occurrences)
For a 14pt differential between my line and vegas, hits at 79% (28 occurrences)
For a 20pt differential between my line and vegas, hits at 87.5% (8 occurrences)
From what I can see, everything here makes sense and is HIGHLY profitable. I will divulge more info if requested but looking for thoughts and/or comments.