[dimon]

NBA game middle of 2.5 points odds are -120 and (-110 to -115)

Should be very close game...taking into consideration of the worst case scenario max loss seems to be right at 8.5% of the bet...

any suggestion on how to improve such scenario maybe?

[Arilou]

Yes, a 2.5 point middle at -110 and -115 in the NBA is quite good as long as you're not counting zero as a point. Not much you can do to improve things, short of just finding better prices.

I doubt, by the way, that asking for sharps is going to improve matters much.

[dimon]

thanks man...I got the middle of 2 and 2.5 points for today, place a bet a bit early and could of gotten 2.5 and 3 points...with the potential loss of 7.6%

[dimon]

by the way not sure I understand you correctly about the "0" as a point...can you use an example to explain this better? thanks

[icsky3]

oops

[BubbleBobble]

Originally Posted by dimon

by the way not sure I understand you correctly about the "0" as a point...can you use an example to explain this better? thanks

It means a middle like +1.5 and +1, in that case you can only hit it on two possible outcomes.
If the middle is +4 and -1.5 f.e., you can hit on three numbers.

2.5 spread points in the NBA are worth ~45 cents, so of course your middle is good long term.
Except the +1 +1 example above.

[u21c3f6]

Originally Posted by dimon

NBA game middle of 2.5 points odds are -120 and (-110 to -115)

Should be very close game...taking into consideration of the worst case scenario max loss seems to be right at 8.5% of the bet...

any suggestion on how to improve such scenario maybe?

First, I don't know what the qualifications are to be considered a "sharp" but I will give you an idea of how I do this combined with live wagering. The timing of this question is perfect because I used this idea successfully in last night's ECU/VaT football game.

I noticed that there were multiple lines of -11.5, -12.5 and -13.5 for VaT with -13.5 going to be the live wagering line. I thought that VaT had a good chance of scoring early on ECU so I offered the following:

11 units @ -110 to win 10 units @ -11.5
9.43 units @ +106 to win 10 units @ -12.5 and
8.77 units @ +114 to win 10 units @ -13.5

All offers were accepted. I now had 29.2 units wagered to win 30 units. This represented approx 10% of my bankroll but I had no intention of letting these wagers ride without hedging the other side. If VaT performs as I expect, I should be able to cover with ECU for a guaranteed profit and still have the middle opportunity. If VaT does not perform as I expect, I will have to cover with ECU for a "guaranteed" loss but I will still have the middle opportunity that will wipe away that "guaranteed" loss and give me an overall win.

As the game progressed, I scaled out of my position and ended up with an average of +124 +13.5 on ECU for 26.46 units to win 32.75 units.

I now had the following set-up:

If VaT wins by 14 or more, I win 3.54 units
If VaT wins by 13, I win 43.98 units
If VaT wins by 12, I win 24.55 units and
If VaT wins by 11 or less or loses, I win 3.55 units.

Last night I got lucky and VaT won by exactly 13 and I had a 43.98 unit win or an approx 15% increase in bankroll.

Hope that gives you an idea to use. Joe.

[dimon]

well that did not worked out as I planned...but you guys think that with odds +100 and -107 and 1-1.5 middle still will be a good bet?

[BubbleBobble]

Originally Posted by dimon

well that did not worked out as I planned...but you guys think that with odds +100 and -107 and 1-1.5 middle still will be a good bet?

Do some basic research...getting 1 or 1.5 point middles for NBA spreads at such a low price would make you ****ing rich very fast. And that´s exactly why you won´t find them, except with some square locals or whatever.

[bleedblue]

Originally Posted by BubbleBobble

Do some basic research...getting 1 or 1.5 point middles for NBA spreads at such a low price would make you ****ing rich very fast. And that´s exactly why you won´t find them, except with some square locals or whatever.

This isn't exactly true. We're talking 2-4% ROI with massive amounts of variance. But yeah, some basic research would tell you that these are a good bet.

[BubbleBobble]

1.5 points for just 7c?
It would make you rich, even with the variance. Noone could be that unlucky.

[dimon]

OK guys, I see this make some of you very interested in the thread...let me tell you what is going on, I am sure book that we are talking here will catch up, but still that what they offered...we all know about the John Morrison, and his affiliation with BetUs, ok starting the begining of the season his system went 4-0 or whatever...and if you are detected that you play this system than the line were adjusted by at leat .5 points, and then the best part was the odds were -130 and +110...so that means that if you buy points to the -110 from +110 you are getting 1 full point, plus half point at least from the line adjustment...so if you want you can go down to -120 and ended up with 3 points middleand then do simple arb...-107 or so from match book and -120 from betus...and getting 3 full points middle for that...did it one time and did not work out..but I figure that BetUs will spot this and won't allow it in the future

[bleedblue]

Betus will realize pretty quickly that you are betting the opposite of Morrison's plays, especially if you betting a lot (which I assume you are since you are arbing/middling).

Also you're better off betting the +110 than buying 1 pt to -110.

[dimon]

by the way they already did...now it is just .5 points difference in non system plays favor