Betting Run Lines

jjgold · 08-16-2005, 06:08 AM

I know these are not really good bets but I always seem to pull the trigger on these lines when a good offensive team that has a high line with a good pitcher plays against a bad team and you can get like -1.5 -110 or so than laying heavy juice on ml.

I cannot see how anyone can win betting -180 favs and above and I would think sqaures bet the big chalk in bases.

Illusion · 08-16-2005, 06:16 AM

I do that sometimes myself jj. I usually just bet -1 though.

Illusion · 08-16-2005, 06:20 AM

How often do you bet reverse run lines jj?

Last year I made a killing betting reverse run lines towards the end of the season.

jjgold · 08-16-2005, 06:42 AM

I never bet them and do not even look at them

Lusion how many things can you look at??

There are just too many lines now and it is mind boggling

Next year maybe I should try though

Mudcat · 08-16-2005, 08:02 AM

For MLB, I only bet alt. runline dogs of +250 or higher.

SBR_John · 08-16-2005, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Last year I made a killing betting reverse run lines towards the end of the season.

A Pinnacle bookmaker told me they lose money for the year on the alternate run line just about every year because only pros play them and they always bet the dog.

BuddyBear · 08-16-2005, 10:13 AM

Like J.J. I just completely ignore them. Way too many games end up being decided by 1 run. I'll stick to money lines. I've never been good at totals...seems like a crapshoot to me.

BuddyBear · 08-16-2005, 10:17 AM

I cannot see how anyone can win betting -180 favs and above and I would think sqaures bet the big chalk in bases.

Pretty much. Anything really over -150 or -160 is like committing betting suicide. It's just not worth the risk. Your better off playing the dog in this situation. Ask Oakland backers the past two nights if they regret playing lines of -190 and higher. You really have to be a square to play this type of line. This is a bookmaker's dream come true to find a large part of their clientale playing heavy favorites. It's the surest way to go to the poor house!

Mudcat · 08-16-2005, 12:35 PM

My research supports that statement. When I studied MLB moneylines some years ago what I found was that you could make money long-term just betting all the big dogs (so obviously you would be doing very badly laying the chalk on big favorites.)

No capping involved - just every time you see a dog of greater than a certain amount, put a unit on it. Off the top of my head, the magic numbers were dogs greater than +180 for the American League, dogs greater than +160 for the NL.

I'd like to revisit that research sometime but right now I'm focusing on alt. runlines.

BigBollocks · 02-26-2008, 12:03 AM

Any follow up figures or discussion with another baseball season approaching?

diogee · 02-26-2008, 12:10 AM

Another 2 year old thread...excellent digging though BB

BigBollocks · 02-26-2008, 12:39 AM

There's only 4 pages in the think tank, and I was looking specifically for a discussion of heavier favorites in baseball when the line disparity can be higher. Please add your two cents when you get a chance sir

diogee · 02-26-2008, 12:43 AM

I just started betting towards the end of the baseball season last year and had no clue what I was doing at all...I feel that this thread will be one of the many useful baseball threads for a noob.