[HedgeHog]

What is the break even percentage for correlated pars at 13/5 odds?

Likewise, what is the BE % if your pars pay 14/5?


I'm guessing pars need to be at least 30% correlated to break even at regular 13/5 odds. Anyone have actual stats on this?

[suicidekings]

Breakevens

13/5: 38.5% overall win rate
14/5: 35.7% overall win rate

Are you trying to quantify how strong the correlation is between your bets (ie: Team A wins / Total goes over)?

[HedgeHog]

Originally Posted by suicidekings

Breakevens

13/5: 38.5% overall win rate
14/5: 35.7% overall win rate

Are you trying to quantify how strong the correlation is between your bets (ie: Team A wins / Total goes over)?

Yes. Also, the Under with the Large 'Dog--which I suspect has similar percentages. Thank you for responding.

[RickySteve]

Originally Posted by suicidekings

Breakevens

13/5: 38.5% overall win rate
14/5: 35.7% overall win rate

Are you trying to quantify how strong the correlation is between your bets (ie: Team A wins / Total goes over)?

The right answer is 27.7778% & 26.3158%.

[HedgeHog]

Originally Posted by RickySteve

The right answer is 27.7778% & 26.3158%.

That is closer to the 30% level I was thinking. I've been betting all pars at 30% and better and doing okay.

[suicidekings]

Originally Posted by RickySteve

The right answer is 27.7778% & 26.3158%.

RickySteve: If you don't mind me asking, how did you come to those results?

[bleedblue]

Looking at my NCAAf db, games with 30-39.9% correlation won at 27.66%, so breakeven is probably somewhere in that range.

I think rickysteve and suicideking were answering the wrong question

[The Bishop]

Originally Posted by suicidekings

RickySteve: If you don't mind me asking, how did you come to those results?

1/3.6 and 1/3.8

[bleedblue]

Suicideking,

Breakeven for a parlay paying 13/5 is not 5/13 = .3846. You need to win 5 out of 18 to break even.

5 wins paying 13/5 - 13 1 unit losses = 0

[HedgeHog]

Originally Posted by bleedblue

Looking at my NCAAf db, games with 30-39.9% correlation won at 27.66%, so breakeven is probably somewhere in that range.

I think rickysteve and suicideking were answering the wrong question

Yeah, I think RS was giving the winning % of all parlays breaking even at 13/5 and 14/5 odds. So my question is what correlation level gets you to these BE levels?

For example, assume a game has a line of 15 and total of 45. Correlation is 33.33%. Is this enough of an edge to make + Ev parlays? (Fav/Over and Dog/Under).

[The Bishop]

Most books, from what I know, don't let you parlay anything with a line/total ratio of 30% or 33.33% (depends on the book) or higher. Thus, based on that, I would assume that is the general breakeven percentage.

Also, dog/unders hit higher than fav/overs.

[suicidekings]

Originally Posted by The Bishop

1/3.6 and 1/3.8

Ha! My fault. I hope I did the math better than that while working out my bets for the day...

[HedgeHog]

Originally Posted by The Bishop

Most books, from what I know, don't let you parlay anything with a line/total ratio of 30% or 33.33% (depends on the book) or higher. Thus, based on that, I would assume that is the general breakeven percentage.

Also, dog/unders hit higher than fav/overs.

This has been my experience as well.

[shantystar]

suicidekings is quite right!!!

[HedgeHog]

[quote=bleedblue;2473845]Looking at my NCAAf db, games with 30-39.9% correlation won at 27.66%, so breakeven is probably somewhere in that range.

BB:

If a game is in the next range, 40-49.9% correlation, what do you show for the parlay winning percentage then?

[bleedblue]

I realized a small mistake with my original numbers, as I was counting pushes as losses, so I just removed them.

40-49.99%
Total games - 218
Home-fav+over - 61 (.2798)
Away-dog+under - 59 (.2706)

Total games - 64
Home-dog+under - 23 (.3594)
Away-fav+over - 13 (.2031)

30-39.99%
Total games - 341
Home-fav+over - 98 (.2874)
Away-dog+under - 96 (.2815)

Total games - 157
Home-dog+under - 48 (.3057)
Away-fav+over - 39 (.2484)

[HedgeHog]

Thanks--very useful info. The Large Home Dog with the Under cashes nearly nearly one third of the time (71/221= 32.1%) in games that are 30-50% correlated! I need to be betting more on these when they are available.

[RickySteve]

Welcome to 2005. You need to take a hard look at the underlying BE% of the sides.

[HedgeHog]

I don't understand the 2005 reference, but I agree the % of the sides is very important. For example, if the dog/under pars are hitting 32%, the average side is winning 56.5% of the time. However, one factor could be hitting at 60% and the other at 53% and still produce 32% winning pars.