[Peep]

I like this bet a bit.

The bet I like in it is tied first half/favorite 2nd half. You can get this at around 20-1 most times, I think the true odds in many cases are closer to 15-1. For example, I had a bet the other day that was a case in point, with the database analysis. (it lost, but still)...

Cinn/So Fla double result tie 1st half/Cinn win 2nd half.

I know ABC/Jazz group have it at 20-1, I think quite a few other books do to.

Thinking behind the play:

1) I have 285 games in the database with two point homedogs.
2) 32 of these were tied at the end of the first half.
3) Road favorite won the 2nd half in 19 of these games.

So you are getting 20-1 on a 19/285 =7% chance play =14-1.

In NFL, the bigger the dog the less chance they will win the game if losing the first half.

For example, Ladbrokes has the Giants/Arizona game, with the Giants as a -7 pt favorite, at +1000 for a Giants win first half/Ariz wins Game.

Or with the StL/Indy game, with the Colts -13, they have it +2000 for Colts win first half/StL wins game.

So a quick quiz for anyone who has read this far. What would be the correct odds on a game lined at -9.5 for the favorite to win the first half/Dog win game based on the above prices? 400 SBR points split amongst those who post the correct answer. :smile:

[The General]

How about +1418, peep?

-7 1000/1
-8 1167/1
-9 1334/1
-9.5 1418/1
-10 1501/1

[Peep]

Thanks General, you have just won some points!

If you get a chance, e-mail Justin lol. Funny story about all this, which may (I hope) never come out.

[The General]

ok, peep. I'm not worried about the points though so no big deal there. I'll email Justin at your request.

Take care of yourself

[Peep]

Oh, Justin and I are fine General, no problem there. No e-mail necessary.

I just thought that you, being a curious fellow, might like to know "the story behind the story" lol.

[Justin7]

Originally Posted by Peep

Thanks General, you have just won some points!

If you get a chance, e-mail Justin lol. Funny story about all this, which may (I hope) never come out.

Love to hear it. You can email me at Justin at Sportsbookreview.com (Hope I don't get an infraction!)

[The General]

I'd like to hear the story, yeah. I'll keep it to myself if needed. Maybe Justin can forward to me.

Thanks

[Peep]

Oh geezs guys.

The "funny story" is just re-grading of a bet that Justin is working on for me. "Humor here is nerds corner". Well, it is a little different....

[shantystar]

Originally Posted by Peep

I like this bet a bit.

The bet I like in it is tied first half/favorite 2nd half. You can get this at around 20-1 most times, I think the true odds in many cases are closer to 15-1. For example, I had a bet the other day that was a case in point, with the database analysis. (it lost, but still)...



In NFL, the bigger the dog the less chance they will win the game if losing the first half.

For example, Ladbrokes has the Giants/Arizona game, with the Giants as a -7 pt favorite, at +1000 for a Giants win first half/Ariz wins Game.

Or with the StL/Indy game, with the Colts -13, they have it +2000 for Colts win first half/StL wins game.

So a quick quiz for anyone who has read this far. What would be the correct odds on a game lined at -9.5 for the favorite to win the first half/Dog win game based on the above prices? 400 SBR points split amongst those who post the correct answer. :smile:

yes i heared that!