[Masu485]

Anyone know good money management strategies? I've been doing a flat % of my bankroll now for a while, and it seems like an uphill battle. Even if I hit 55% I'd barely break even. At even odds, a win followed by a loss results in net loss, and a loss followed by a win also results in a net loss. 50% at even odds should result in a break even result, but this is actually like artificial juice, slowly depleting the bankroll.

Progressive methods, which is the opposite of what I do now, seem to rectify this, yet there is way too much risk involved.

I've heard of Kelly, but I don't know how to accurately represent the teams by my own %s.

The final one I've heard of is just flat betting the same amount for every game. This seems ideal, but you must increase at some point, when your bankroll grows, and it would turn into my first example up above, I'm assuming.

Anyone know any other strategies?

[xyz]

You need to know your edge on each bet, and that should play a role in sizing your bets with Kelly.

[ICE-BLOOD]

masu485, stick with the flat bet size, and keep it at a small % of your bankroll for now 'cause it seems like you're currently not hitting a good % of winners

when you can consistently hit 55%, you'll do alot better than barely break even

[gamble4heisman]

Do searches for Kelly and risk of ruin. i would take your roll, make your risk of ruin 1 in 10000 or .0001 for risk tolerance and then play that appropriate stake from Kelly formula based on perceived edge per play.

[head_strong]

be smart and don't do anything stupid.....

[aggieshawn]

keep your money in your pocket. only use it buy beer.

[LT Profits]

If you are playing flat % of bankroll and are really hitting 55% in 11/10 sports, there is no way you are losing regardless of the order of the wins/losses.

[aggieshawn]

use the martingale system. it will end your misery in a hurry

[LT Profits]

Originally Posted by aggieshawn

use the martingale system. it will end your misery in a hurry

That's funny.

But let's try and keep the Think Tank at least quasi-serious.

[jaybird30bruns]

Once your up...don't be a dumbie and cash out!!

[Joe Dogs]

Never bet just for action.....action betters never win.Dont get to high on winning streaks,dont get to low on losing streaks.Try to keep emotions in check.Emotions in gambling are like water and oil.

[aggieshawn]

yes, that is biggest thing, PATAINCE and never bet for action. Always have a reason, angle for a wager. Never a feels as they lead you to chase. Tilting is ruin of all gamblers

[aggieshawn]

excpecially in the casino. have plan, never chase a losing hand

[head_strong]

Originally Posted by jaybird30bruns

Once your up...don't be a dumbie and cash out!!

I like that one, once you are playing with the houses money it relieves a lot of stress.....

[Wrecktangle]

I think the Century system is the best bet for newbies thru intermediates. 1/3 to 1/2 Kelly for pros "with a pair" who can actually calc Bayesian Priors. Not even the Uber Pros (Justin7) go Full Kelly...but Kamikaze folks like me, do.

[Nevada]

I use a modified maritangle/% type system for money management. I only take dogs (or run line faves to make them dogs) and I bet to win a % of the bankroll instead of risking a % of the bankroll... and chase it a few times. each chase is to win what you loss plus the % of the NEW bankroll you are trying to win

[SportGirl]

whats kelly? Im new around here, i could use some help

[u21c3f6]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

For those that make the same kind of wagers over and over and know the %'s as regards their edge, I highly recommend half-Kelly.

Joe.

[Masu485]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

If you are playing flat % of bankroll and are really hitting 55% in 11/10 sports, there is no way you are losing regardless of the order of the wins/losses.

well my problem with flat % is that it raises the break even point sgnificantly. if i would bet a flat amount each time, i'd have to go around 52.5% (approx) to break even, but if i do flat % i'd have to get around 55% to break even.

i dont know i'm probably wrong, but it does feel like artificial juice. if u go 5-0, and then 0-5, u end up losing more because the % would represent a bigger number (this isn't even including the juice). if you go 0-5, and then 5-0, you still have a net loss because the % on the 5-0 represents a smaller amount.

doing this while hitting 52.5% i think (which is ordinarily the break even point), would slowly bankrupt you, and you'd have to hit 55%.

[Masu485]

maybe i should also give you a bit of specifics.

i am NOT a volume bettor. i only have ONE play per day. maybe 26 over the course of 30 days. that being said, does that change the kind of money management system i should be using?

[BigdaddyQH]

I have been doing this for 40 years, and the easiest way to manage mymoney is to wager the same amount for every bet. Sure you can play the unit game, and hit it big if you wager a lot on the right game, but you also lose big if you wager on the wrong game. Remember, this is not a 50/50 proposition. You pay a vig. Also remember this. It can be very fustrating and mentally draining to hit 60% of your wagers and still be in the red. People cannot control themselves, no matter how much thy think they can. Theyare going to get itred, and start "chasing" lost money. That results in more fancy neon lights and pretty women serving drinks at the Vegas books, and the wise guys pocketing more of your money. This is a grind, not a get rich quick sceme.

[Blargh]

How about a Labouchere system?

[Sportslover]

Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH

I have been doing this for 40 years, and the easiest way to manage mymoney is to wager the same amount for every bet. Sure you can play the unit game, and hit it big if you wager a lot on the right game, but you also lose big if you wager on the wrong game. Remember, this is not a 50/50 proposition. You pay a vig. Also remember this. It can be very fustrating and mentally draining to hit 60% of your wagers and still be in the red. People cannot control themselves, no matter how much thy think they can. Theyare going to get itred, and start "chasing" lost money. That results in more fancy neon lights and pretty women serving drinks at the Vegas books, and the wise guys pocketing more of your money. This is a grind, not a get rich quick sceme.

I think this is definately the best advice in this thread and I use the same method. I flat bet the same amount for an entire season. At the beginning of a particular season in a particular sport, I set the amount of my flat bet and then proceed to bet that exact same amount on every play for the whole season. No matter how much my bankroll increases during that season, I make sure I stay disciplined, betting the same amount and treating my betting as a long term investment. When the season finishes, I can then set a higher flat bet for the following season, when that sport starts again.

By using this flat betting technique, I am able to set a target winning percentage and bet on odds that will allow me to be profitable if I hit that target winning percentage. I also bet the same minimum odds for every single play in a particular sport. So if I choose to bet minimum -110 odds in a certain sport, then I will target a minimum winning percentage of 53% in order to be profitable over the season.

[Masu485]

Originally Posted by Sportslover

I think this is definately the best advice in this thread and I use the same method. I flat bet the same amount for an entire season. At the beginning of a particular season in a particular sport, I set the amount of my flat bet and then proceed to bet that exact same amount on every play for the whole season. No matter how much my bankroll increases during that season, I make sure I stay disciplined, betting the same amount and treating my betting as a long term investment. When the season finishes, I can then set a higher flat bet for the following season, when that sport starts again.

By using this flat betting technique, I am able to set a target winning percentage and bet on odds that will allow me to be profitable if I hit that target winning percentage. I also bet the same minimum odds for every single play in a particular sport. So if I choose to bet minimum -110 odds in a certain sport, then I will target a minimum winning percentage of 53% in order to be profitable over the season.

hmm i may actually end up doing this. i do have more discipline than most (never really was a sports fan), and would treat this as a long term investment. while it is possible to go bankrupt using this technique as opposed to flat % of BR, the break even pt is a modest ~53% instead of 55%+
thanks for your input.

[Sportslover]

Originally Posted by Masu485

hmm i may actually end up doing this. i do have more discipline than most (never really was a sports fan), and would treat this as a long term investment. while it is possible to go bankrupt using this technique as opposed to flat % of BR, the break even pt is a modest ~53% instead of 55%+
thanks for your input.

Your welcome.

When setting the amount of your flat bet at the beginning of the season I only set this amount at 1% of my starting bankroll. That means I am comfortable betting in the knowledge that I am not risking a large amount of my bankroll when the season starts.

As long as you continue to either profit or break even throughout the season, you're flat betting amount will always be less or equal to 1% of your original starting bankroll.

For example, in August, most of the major leagues for European soccer got underway. If I started with a hypothetical bankroll of $20,000, I would set my flat betting amount at 1% of this starting bankroll, meaning the amount of my flat bet would be $200 per soccer play for the whole entire season.

If by the end of October I had managed to get my bankroll up to $23,000, I would still keep betting the same flat bet amount of $200 for every single bet for the rest of the season. At this stage, this $200 flat bet would be equal to 0.87% of my current (hypothetical) $23,000 bankroll.

By setting your flat bet to 1% of your starting bankroll you minimize the risk of losing large amounts if you suffer a bad losing streak. As long as you can hit 53% winners over the course of the whole season, you will make a profit.

Whichever strategy you choose to implement for your bankroll management, I wish you luck.

[calm]

Originally Posted by aggieshawn

keep your money in your pocket. only use it buy beer.

Sharpest thing I've read all day.

[Ruifgalmeida]

this is the way to go

[reno cool]

If you're winning at a % which yields an edge less than half of the % of bankroll you're betting you will lose.
That is the problem I believe you're addressing.
You can avoid this by varying bet sizes less after wins and losses.
Make your bets based on a smaller % of a larger (even fictional) bankroll

[PASS IT ON]

Originally Posted by Sportslover

Your welcome.

When setting the amount of your flat bet at the beginning of the season I only set this amount at 1% of my starting bankroll. That means I am comfortable betting in the knowledge that I am not risking a large amount of my bankroll when the season starts.

As long as you continue to either profit or break even throughout the season, you're flat betting amount will always be less or equal to 1% of your original starting bankroll.

For example, in August, most of the major leagues for European soccer got underway. If I started with a hypothetical bankroll of $20,000, I would set my flat betting amount at 1% of this starting bankroll, meaning the amount of my flat bet would be $200 per soccer play for the whole entire season.

If by the end of October I had managed to get my bankroll up to $23,000, I would still keep betting the same flat bet amount of $200 for every single bet for the rest of the season. At this stage, this $200 flat bet would be equal to 0.87% of my current (hypothetical) $23,000 bankroll.

By setting your flat bet to 1% of your starting bankroll you minimize the risk of losing large amounts if you suffer a bad losing streak. As long as you can hit 53% winners over the course of the whole season, you will make a profit.

Whichever strategy you choose to implement for your bankroll management, I wish you luck.

Would u suggest at the end of the season to move up your bet size if u made say $5k profit on your $20k??

[Sportslover]

Originally Posted by PASS IT ON

Would u suggest at the end of the season to move up your bet size if u made say $5k profit on your $20k??

Oh yes, absolutely. If by the end of the tennis season I've turned 20k into 35k then I would start next season with a higher flat bet amount. So if my flat bet for this season was $200, 1% of starting bankroll, my flat bet for the next tennis season be $350, which would be 1% of my new starting bankroll.

Once I set my flat bet for a season of a particular sport, I stick to it. However, when the next season comes along, I re-evaluate my flat bet based on my new starting bankroll. My flat bet is always based on my starting bankroll at the beginning of a season in a particular sport.

Hope this helps you out, good luck.

[PASS IT ON]

was possibly a stupid question, but alot of people do it as soon as possible eg, $20k starting balance = bet $200 every bet, $21k = bet $210 every bet. alot of ppl do it the way i mentioned, thanks for the advice

[Sportslover]

Originally Posted by PASS IT ON

was possibly a stupid question, but alot of people do it as soon as possible eg, $20k starting balance = bet $200 every bet, $21k = bet $210 every bet. alot of ppl do it the way i mentioned, thanks for the advice

That's certainly another way of doing it. Some people also re-evaluate their flat bet on a monthly or yearly basis. I suppose different people have different preferences.

I find that re-evaluating your flat every sporting season or every year gives you more consistant results and helps to defend your bankroll against a bad losing streak.

Think about this, a person starts betting $200 per bet from a 20k bankroll and $200 is going to be equal to 1 unit. This person then re-evaluates their bet size after 100 bets, they have made it up to 21k, a profit of 5 units. They increase their bet size to $210 but have a bad losing streak. During the bad losing streak they lose 5 units, a total of $1050. As a result, they now have less money that what they started with. Some people might say they raised their bet size too early. This is something to be aware of, no method is necessarily right or wrong but its good to know the positives and negatives of different methods.

If you are a consistent sports bettor then your winning/losing streaks should even out over a whole season but week to week or even month to month might not be long enough for the streaks to even out. However, if you are confident of consistently increasing your bankroll without a bad losing streak, then re-evaluating your bet size during the season could be an advantage. It depends on your style of betting, it depends on how successful your bets are, it depends on what kind of winning and losing streaks you expect to experience.

The best thing you can do is to plan what you are going to do before you do it. Whatever money management strategy you use, prepare your betting rules before you start so that you don't change your rules based on emotion at a later stage.

[PASS IT ON]

super advice. thanks for all ur input sportslover.......... tranmere stockport 2.5 +

[Sportslover]

Originally Posted by PASS IT ON

super advice. thanks for all ur input sportslover.......... tranmere stockport 2.5 +

Your welcome, Pass It On.

On the subject of the Stockport vs Tranmere Over 2.5 - they are showing this game on Fox Sports tomorrow morning (early) in Australia.

[Arilou]

There are (at least) two important goals in any money management strategy, and I think it's important to note both of them. First, you have the goal to maximize the expected growth of your bankroll and otherwise make the mathematically correct wager. Second, you have to manage your own emotions and keep yourself off tilt.

Flat betting, especially flat betting where bet size isn't recalculated that often, is based on the theory that goal 2 is far more important than goal 1. When you flat bet, you get some very nice emotional payoffs, the biggest one being that your results correlate perfectly with your W-L record. Betting correctly causes you to turn a profit less often, since you scale up on winning and down on losing, which means you get bigger wins and smaller losses, but lose more often. The problem with that is that humans are built to hate small losses, especially in situations where they "should" have won or broken even.

I think we all have to look at our own character and decide what we can take. Most gamblers simply aren't emotionally prepared for anything other than flat betting for extended periods of time between re-evaluations; this was something I didn't believe at first but have come to as I've witnessed them first hand and read more forums. As long as you aren't hitting the limits anywhere, sticking to flat betting takes a lot of risks out of the system.

However, those that can handle it on all levels should be on a modified Kelly platform.