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#1 | ||||
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I ask because of this scenario.
Two teams, hot favourites at 1.4 to win their games (ie each bet $100 and win $40). Now, place two $100 singles and you : win $80 if both win lose $60 if one wins lose $200 if none win If you place a $100 double you win $96 if both win lose $100 if one or both lose. So thats half the exposure for a higher gain when playing short favourites. Do you think this is the smarter play given you think the 1.4 prices are good value plays?
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"Break Like the Wind" |
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#2 | ||||
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Just, for me personally, I am currently playing the singles and I am seriously thinking of "regressing" back to my niave parlay days of old in such cases.
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"Break Like the Wind" |
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#3 | ||||
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There should be no difference . The amount you bet of your starting bank should relate to the risk of losing. You have a greater risk of losing with a parlay and should therefore bet less.
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#4 | ||||
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Is a parlay ever the smart play?
Depends if the 2 bets are correlated even if slightly. |
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#5 | ||||
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(7:05EST) Detroit -130
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Better off betting 2 separate games and doubling up the bet from the 1st game.
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JJ's Picks |
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#6 | ||||
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any time I parlay teams i back it with a teaser.
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#7 | ||||
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I potsed the following some time ago:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...1-parlays.html And you can find my Parlay Calculator here: Betting Tools Temporary Home
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#8 | ||||
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Ganchrow is sharp as a tack
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#9 | ||||
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Ganchrow is the man ... I will read this when i get time (friends round at the mo)
thanks gents for the feedback in the meantime (jjj ... not sure I follow your logic there ... not a first i know ... but, wheres the advantage?)
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"Break Like the Wind" |
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#10 | ||||
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One of the best books that covers parlays indepth: win more, lose less. An instant classic. Key to success with parlays is your winning percentage. If it's not high enough, don't mess with parlays.
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#11 | ||||
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JJs talking about the double up catch up method. It works fine if you have very-very deep pockets. I dont like doing it myself. Or he's saying take your winnings from game 1 and invest it along with your original stake on game 2.
Last edited by Aces; 11-28-2006 at 06:39 PM.. |
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#12 | |||||
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Brick House!
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Quote:
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"Hey Brick, C-R-E-D-I-T. That is how you spell it. I can't really respect the opinion of someone that cannot even spell a 5 letter word." - Johnny W, owner of BetOnStars |
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#13 | |||||
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Quote:
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#14 | ||||
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LOL!!! In Alabama we call it take the winnings from game 1 put it with your original stash and pound the hell out of game 2.
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#15 | ||||
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Stay away from parlays, unless you 1. master the math, and 2. have sharp opinions. As Dark Horse mentioned, Don Peszynski's "Win more, lose less" is great material on this topic.
Generally, the payouts on a 2-team parlay are close to what you get if you bet your winnings and principal from the first game on the second (retail on a 2-teamer is 2.6, but 2.64 is "fair" if -110 is fair). The real problem with parlays is that it increase your variance. Losing streaks last longer playing these. The one time parlays are good (other than correlated parlays) is when you are a winning player. If you are a 55% handicapper, you can make more money (EV) with parlays... but variance still lowers your max bet. |
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#16 | |||||
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Quote:
A bit of a surprising result.
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#17 | ||||
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There was a poster named Roo from long ago that actually brought down a couple of decent size offshore books betting nothing but parlays.
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#18 | ||||
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Brick House!
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i hate when players win the first legs of parlays and i fiond out i have 20 time more on one game. but if you offer shitty odds... the book will never lose.
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"Hey Brick, C-R-E-D-I-T. That is how you spell it. I can't really respect the opinion of someone that cannot even spell a 5 letter word." - Johnny W, owner of BetOnStars |
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#19 | ||||
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(7:05EST) Detroit -130
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Your better off betting 2 TEAM parlay wheels ONLY if you have a big edge on a game so you bet Game A with E,F,G,H,I,J
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JJ's Picks |
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#20 | |||||
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Quote:
I will do the maths (us Europeans are a bit more opinion-based in betting than maths-based I think) on the stuff youve all posted and (undoubtedly) come back with some brilliant and suprising points. If not, thanks for the pointers there. Good stuff.
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"Break Like the Wind" |
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#21 | |||||
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Quote:
I was just attempting to clarify JJ's point.
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#22 | ||||
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One of the first pieces of advice I was given when I first began wagering on sports was to "stay away from parlays, they're for suckers". So I did.
But then I found this place and I noticed that a few sharp posters (St. Andrew for instance) often make parlay plays and are relatively successful (Andrew appears to be running around 55%). So my question is, do sharps make habits of utilizing the parlay?
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Even Jesus Hates The Yankees |
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#23 | |||||
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I think doubling up on a straight wagers several times then cashing out is more easier and profitable in the long run. It will require a lot of patient on your part though. |
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#24 | |||||
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For the average bettor I recommend avoiding parlays if only to avoid tilt. A true Kelly bettor might be able to avoid tilt but most players can become emotional when they lose money despite not having a losing record. The amount that a player can lose when acting irrationally (tilt!) should be balanced against the incremental gains one gets from betting Kelly as opposed to betting straight up.
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The foundation of every state is the education of its youth. Diogenes Laėrtius |
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#25 | |||||
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I play small round robins to accompany my straight bets fairly often (always two-team only).
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It is time to turn MLB 2009 around to keep my streak of consecutive winning seasons in ALL Sports alive. Quote:
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#26 | ||||
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I should note that I am talking here about uncorrelated parlays. Correlated parlays are an entirely different manner and should almost be viewed as a straight bet even if there are 4 outcomes and you only profit from one. Unfortunately correlated parlays have become harder to find as books have wised up (possibly due to rectal bleeding).
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The foundation of every state is the education of its youth. Diogenes Laėrtius |
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#27 | |||||
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Quote:
This is not a situation that is unthinkable at all. If you are betting NHL pucklines for instance, a situation similar to this could easily present itself. Well if your bankroll is $1,000, the Kelly calculator shows that in addition to your straight bets, you would also want to bet $63 on a parlay for each 2-team combo, and do a $27 parlay on all three. |
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#28 | ||||
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HG: you are correct on the math but that ignores the psychological effects.
When Chris (Jesus) Ferguson was an up and coming math guy he found out that poker pros were over betting AA. Math wise he was correct. However, a lot of poker pros admitted that they HATED getting aces cracked and wanted to either win a pot fast or make the pot large. Making the pot medium size and then getting beat later would hurt their future play much more than the incrimentel benefit they would gain from betting aces "correctly." When you go x-1 and don't win it can be very frustrating.
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The foundation of every state is the education of its youth. Diogenes Laėrtius |
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#29 | ||||
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