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11-28-2006, 04:43 PM
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#1 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 09-14-05
Location: Who's asking?
Posts: 1,499
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Is a parlay ever the smart play?
I ask because of this scenario.
Two teams, hot favourites at 1.4 to win their games (ie each bet $100 and win $40).
Now, place two $100 singles and you :
win $80 if both win
lose $60 if one wins
lose $200 if none win
If you place a $100 double
you win $96 if both win
lose $100 if one or both lose.
So thats half the exposure for a higher gain when playing short favourites.
Do you think this is the smarter play given you think the 1.4 prices are good value plays?
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"Break Like the Wind"
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11-28-2006, 04:45 PM
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#2 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 09-14-05
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Just, for me personally, I am currently playing the singles and I am seriously thinking of "regressing" back to my niave parlay days of old in such cases.
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"Break Like the Wind"
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11-28-2006, 04:57 PM
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#3 (permalink)
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SBR Wise Guy
Join Date: 07-19-06
Posts: 727
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There should be no difference . The amount you bet of your starting bank should relate to the risk of losing. You have a greater risk of losing with a parlay and should therefore bet less.
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11-28-2006, 05:03 PM
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#4 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 10-30-05
Posts: 1,555
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Is a parlay ever the smart play?
Depends if the 2 bets are correlated even if slightly.
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11-28-2006, 05:24 PM
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#5 (permalink)
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SBR Posting Legend
Join Date: 07-20-05
Posts: 23,465
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Better off betting 2 separate games and doubling up the bet from the 1st game.
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11-28-2006, 05:47 PM
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#6 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 09-22-05
Posts: 1,042
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any time I parlay teams i back it with a teaser.
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11-28-2006, 05:50 PM
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#7 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: 08-28-05
Location: Forest Hills, NY, Home of the Blitzkrieg Bop
Posts: 4,632
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11-28-2006, 06:04 PM
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#8 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 10-30-05
Posts: 1,555
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Ganchrow is sharp as a tack
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11-28-2006, 06:09 PM
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#9 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 09-14-05
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Ganchrow is the man ... I will read this when i get time (friends round at the mo)
thanks gents for the feedback in the meantime (jjj ... not sure I follow your logic there ... not a first i know ... but, wheres the advantage?)
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"Break Like the Wind"
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11-28-2006, 06:33 PM
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#10 (permalink)
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 12-14-05
Posts: 6,895
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One of the best books that covers parlays indepth: win more, lose less. An instant classic. Key to success with parlays is your winning percentage. If it's not high enough, don't mess with parlays.
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11-28-2006, 06:37 PM
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#11 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 09-22-05
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JJs talking about the double up catch up method. It works fine if you have very-very deep pockets. I dont like doing it myself. Or he's saying take your winnings from game 1 and invest it along with your original stake on game 2.
Last edited by Aces : 11-28-2006 at 06:39 PM.
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11-28-2006, 06:46 PM
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#12 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 08-12-05
Location: Arizona
Posts: 1,432
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dark Horse
One of the best books that covers parlays indepth: win more, lose less. An instant classic. Key to success with parlays is your winning percentage. If it's not high enough, don't mess with parlays.
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key to success is the payout odds.... doent matter how many teams in your parlay if the payut is high enough.
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"Hey Brick, C-R-E-D-I-T. That is how you spell it. I can't really respect the opinion of someone that cannot even spell a 5 letter word."
- Johnny W, owner of BetOnStars
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11-28-2006, 06:49 PM
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#13 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: 08-28-05
Location: Forest Hills, NY, Home of the Blitzkrieg Bop
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Aces
JJs talking about the double up catch up method. It works fine if you have very-very deep pockets. I dont like doing it myself. Or he's saying take your winnings from game 1 and invest it along with your original stake on game 2.
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Rather, I think that JJ is indicating that in the case of two (or more) non-contemporaneous bets, the payout structure of a parlay can be duplicated by risking the proceeds of the first bet on the outcome of the second.
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11-28-2006, 06:55 PM
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#14 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 09-22-05
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LOL!!! In Alabama we call it take the winnings from game 1 put it with your original stash and pound the hell out of game 2.
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11-28-2006, 07:29 PM
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#15 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: 07-31-06
Posts: 1,957
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Stay away from parlays, unless you 1. master the math, and 2. have sharp opinions. As Dark Horse mentioned, Don Peszynski's "Win more, lose less" is great material on this topic.
Generally, the payouts on a 2-team parlay are close to what you get if you bet your winnings and principal from the first game on the second (retail on a 2-teamer is 2.6, but 2.64 is "fair" if -110 is fair).
The real problem with parlays is that it increase your variance. Losing streaks last longer playing these. The one time parlays are good (other than correlated parlays) is when you are a winning player. If you are a 55% handicapper, you can make more money (EV) with parlays... but variance still lowers your max bet.
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11-28-2006, 07:42 PM
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#16 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: 08-28-05
Location: Forest Hills, NY, Home of the Blitzkrieg Bop
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Justin7
If you are a 55% handicapper, you can make more money (EV) with parlays... but variance still lowers your max bet.
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One interesting (although largely academic) point here is that for large enough favorites, a proper Kelly bettor would actually choose the parlay in preference to the singles. (Assuming for some reason he couldn't bet both the parlay AND the singles).
A bit of a surprising result.
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11-28-2006, 08:10 PM
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#17 (permalink)
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Founder (semi-unemployed)
Join Date: 07-12-05
Location: Texas
Posts: 6,515
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There was a poster named Roo from long ago that actually brought down a couple of decent size offshore books betting nothing but parlays.
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