[Bullajami]

I was looking at some MLB lines today and this caught my eye:

Arizona +110 with runline (+1.5)(-210) (Sportsbook A)
Colorado -120 with runline (-1.5) (+175) (Sportsbook B)

Contemplating the value of betting on AZ to win and COL on the runline.

If 30% of MLB games are decided by one run (read that someplace) can you say that you'd have a 15% chance of losing both bets here, or is there a better estimation method for determining your probability of losing both bets?

What I am exploring is this:
At some point there'd be value in betting sides vs runlines (If the numbers were good enough - although this may not be the case for my example). Is there an easy way to tell where that value point is?

Thanks.

[Bullajami]

Place looks great, btw. I've been in Africa for 5 months and have not been to SBR for a while. I like the recent changes.

[u21c3f6]

Originally Posted by Bullajami

I was looking at some MLB lines today and this caught my eye:

Arizona +110 with runline (+1.5)(-210) (Sportsbook A)
Colorado -120 with runline (-1.5) (+175) (Sportsbook B)

Contemplating the value of betting on AZ to win and COL on the runline.

If 30% of MLB games are decided by one run (read that someplace) can you say that you'd have a 15% chance of losing both bets here, or is there a better estimation method for determining your probability of losing both bets?

If there was only a 15% chance of losing both bets, this would be a very good wager. However, this is not the case. I believe the % of games by one run is closer to 28% but the real problem with the example above is that the home team wins by one run about 17% and the away team only about 11% of the time. If you use these %'s you will see that your wager would be a long-term loser.

Joe.

[Pancho sanza]

30 % is an overall total, you have to treat each game seperately, the total has a big impact on the one run ratio's.

Without even crunching any numbers I can tell you this strategy will fail.

[Bullajami]

Originally Posted by Pancho sanza

Without even crunching any numbers I can tell you this strategy will fail.

But with crunching the numbers this strategy will work if applied selectively. It is the selection criteria I am looking for.

[xyz]

I would suggest thinking about the moneyline and runline bets as two separate bets, and evaluate them separately. For your strategy to work, at least one of the two bets must be +EV over many trials. Can you make that happen? If not, betting two -EV bets long term is a sure loser.

[MonkeyF0cker]

You have to look at totals and what a run is worth in each game. Unless both the ML and RL are +EV, it's pointless, and I have a hard time believing that you'll find a ML on one side and a RL on the other that are +EV...

[Bullajami]

Perhaps I should re-word my question:

In MLB, if I bet the side on one team, and the runline on the other, how do I calculate the probability of losing both bets?

[Bigbrewhaha]

All you need to do is go to covers.com, add up all the games for the season, then tally all the games where the fav won by 1 run divide by all the other games, i actually did this the other day and the previous post is correct, so far this season its around 14-15 percent that the fav wins by a run. You would also want to screen all the games to ensure both sides are heavy dogs to increase your profitability as much as possible for example +150 on both the underdog moneyline and the fav runline or even better, there are usually about 3-4 of these games per day. You could even chase it out to 3 steps but you have to start laying down heavy money at about the 3 step because you would need to make up for your previous losses plus a profit on just one side of your bet, if you lose on 1 chase series it will hurt bad, the odds you will lose a 3 step chase series however would probably only be about 2-3 percent. Truthfully unless you could find an effective secondary filter this approach is just basically very high risk small reward, may be profitable but its hard to tell...

[Pancho sanza]

Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker

You have to look at totals and what a run is worth in each game. Unless both the ML and RL are +EV, it's pointless, and I have a hard time believing that you'll find a ML on one side and a RL on the other that are +EV...

This post pretty much sums it up.