[bookie]

I have a ledger spreadsheet that tracks my ATS results in various categories, and I'd like to get better feedback from it by incorporating the ATS margin of each result. I'd like any feedback anyone has about how to go about this.

Option One) Calculate each sample's Z-score and the average ATSM of the set leaving them as independent measures to eyeball.

Option Two) Incorporate the ATSM into the Z-score by translating the results into the odds of an an action bet. So if I lost a bet by 6 ATS points I would count it as a moneyline -600 loss, and so on.

Or does someone have a better idea?

Edit: I should add that I only bet the NBA & WNBA--and keep a seperate spreaadsheet for my prop, moneyline, and team totals bets. So I'm only interesting in evaluating my pointspread results--although these are complicated by many of them being on halves and quarters.

BTW: This is a topic that has been indirectly discussed in this excellent thread (I thank Dark Horse for pointing me to it): A better way to measure handicapper success

[MonkeyF0cker]

In my opinion, action point grading is virtually useless unless you really want to make a lot of unnecessary work for yourself. To get an accurate indication of your level of success from action points, you'd have to account for far too many variables. How would you plan on accounting for 1 run victories in MLB vs. 6 point victories in NBA? Not only is this a concern for intersport accounting, but even intrasport. A 14 point victory in NCAAF with a total of 35 surely couldn't be the equivalent of a 14 point victory with a total of 68. In order for any type of action point grading to have any significance, you would need to get a z-score from each individual game's probability distribution.

[Dark Horse]

I'd love a calculator (experimental) that 'weighs' entrees for winning expectation, Z-score, and action points (or MSE for wins and losses) against full Kelly. For purpose of bet sizing. By experimenting with the numbers it may be possible to approximate a Kelly number that is more specific to sports betting.