Im currently just learning some basic mechanics about sports betting and I come across quitte some questions regarding to:
opening-/closing lines, Efficient-/ineffecient markets and beating the closing line.
(I'm looking to bet on mostly european football 1x2.)
There is a pretty easy way to check how efficient the market is, or atleast I know of one way that I read about on this forum:
Bet in a certain competition all games were the opening line is higher then the closing line, and the result would be X. If X is a positive number you are most likely talking about a efficient market.
- wich sample size would i be looking for?
- How high does X+ have to be to be fairly certain about a efficient market? (in correlation with #bets I'm sure?!)
I havent come across a site where I can find historical data wich contains, for example, the pinny OL and CL's in a format that i can easily put in a model. I can do it manually, no problem, but it would take alot of time.
So lets say I have a model that I have believe is solid for soccer. Would I be right to think that in the efficient markets I should be able to beat the CL by X, while in a inneffecient market this:
A) wouldnt matter at all
B would be less relavant
C) should be the total opposite
Thanks in advance!
p.s. I read forums/googled alot but couldnt find the answers I was looking for hence im asking.
While writing this i remeber Justin7 saying and i quote:
"Even in the smaller markets, I'd rather see consistent line movement in the correct direction."
Im wondering here because to me it seems how smaller the market (we were talkin about low/max-bets < 1k/agame) the less efficient/sharp these markets are. What am i missing here?