I have been playing hoops props for about 3 months, I have made 424 plays so far. Turned a $400 deposit into over 5k of profit. Mathematically, I'm trying to see if I have just been lucky or if I may have something that works.
Using the Z-score test I calculated it for a 51.45% probability of win (my average line was -106) and got 1.55
I also calculated it for a 50% probability of win and the Z-score then is 2.14 (much better).
My first question is: Which of the 2 Z-scores is correct (if any)?
Also, I want to look at the line movement test to get a better idea of whether this will work going forward. Is the prop market and efficient market so that the line test will be meaningful?
Also, which books would you check for closing lines? Pinnacle, Greek, Bookmaker, etc.? Is there a place where the closing lines on props can be found?