Love the Action referred me to this section.
I have a question about baseball totals, I made some picks in the past and theyve done well. The special thing about them is that my picks are hardly ever totally off, so I basically never have Under 7 when the end result is 11. My question to you guys is, could i just track by which margin my games are winning and by which margin they are losing and calculate the average run differential and therewith calculate at which percentage they would hit (juice of -105)? So basically if f.e. the average run differential was 2, could i calculate the estimated %?
Also, does it matter whether the totals are more overs or unders? Because for overs there is no limit and that could I guess shade the result if you have Over 10 and the end result is 15-13, because with Under 7 you might soemtimes get a 2-1 or so, but the margin could be smaller.
LTA already told me that value was measured against the closing number, however I think that the closing lines should be real close to real number over a large sample size of course and therefore a 2 run differential on average would be 2 runs of value.
Any help would be appreciated.