Does anybody have an idea, or know of a post, that suggests a rule of thumb way for determining push frequencies for in-progress games?
I think Ganchrow's half-point calculator is based on the idea of using only results that fall within a point or so of a given line. So the question is of all the games where the line was three what % fell X, Y, Z. Using this methodology you can price a result as having, in a rough rule of thumb way, about a three and a half percent chance of falling.
Does that rule of thumb hold when you're buying at different points in the game? So, for example, I have SA +3.5 and Oklahoma +3 tonight (it's half time of that game as I write with OKC up 8 and the HT line -5.5). Anyway, using the rule of thumb my five middle numbers and side number should make my chances to win about 16%, but that doesn't seem right to me...seems a little high.
Any helpful comments on how to approach this kind of evaluation?