[a4u2fear]

I have a sample of 553 NHL games.

Betting the same scenario over multiple money lines (dog/fav, home/away), I find that the system goes 258-295, profiting +11.5 units (wagering 1 unit per play).

Is +11.5 units too low to consider this a decent system to play or are there enough games to equal out the variance? If not, how many + units would you feel safe playing this system?

Thanks.

[jgilmartin]

How did you do against the closing line?

[mathdotcom]

I have a sample of 553 NHL games.

Betting the same scenario over multiple money lines (dog/fav, home/away), I find that the system goes 258-295, profiting +11.5 units (wagering 1 unit per play).

Is +11.5 units too low to consider this a decent system to play or are there enough games to equal out the variance? If not, how many + units would you feel safe playing this system?

Thanks.

I would not feel good betting any system derived in that way

In fact I would feel sick to my stomach

[a4u2fear]

its betting teams on the 4th game in 6 nights, no filtering is done on moneyline, so it could be best team in league or worst.

[LT Profits]

its betting teams on the 4th game in 6 nights, no filtering is done on moneyline, so it could be best team in league or worst.

Mathy is referring to you giving no regard to price.

[a4u2fear]

Mathy is referring to you giving no regard to price.

As soon as its narrowed in price you are too limited in games to chose from. I can provide a range, but would be a large span

[durito]

That's not what he means.

So you maybe found some undervalued subset in the past, what happens when the market becomes aware of this factor? How do you find out other than losing all your money.

[Inkwell77]

That's not what he means.

So you maybe found some undervalued subset in the past, what happens when the market becomes aware of this factor? How do you find out other than losing all your money.

So what if you find some type of trend, like his for example (4th game in 6 nights), within a certain price range and then you find the average win percentage within that price range, and then bet the individual game when the price is lower than the push rate?
Is there than value in that?

[a4u2fear]

That's not what he means.

So you maybe found some undervalued subset in the past, what happens when the market becomes aware of this factor? How do you find out other than losing all your money.

The rule of thumb is that the team on 4 in 6 should be bet against heavily, and it's not a smart thing to do, but the news trends the public that way because they "should" be tired.

I hardly think my measly 11 units and small bet sizes will hardly make Vegas notice

[thom321]

a4,

I think the point here is that how do you figure out what the fair odds should be for the "4 in 6" team, so that you can compare that to the odds the market is offering? If the win % is 50% in your historical sample and the avg odds offered implied <50% win %, your system would not work going forward if the market has figured this out and is offering odds that imply >50% win %.

[slapshot]

just bet against the team in the 3rd game in 4 nights position.
for a 100 USD player you would have been up 2818 after the season with 108-59 record.