I've often wonder if line movements tell us much of anything? There seems to be two schools of thought here.
1-Line movement toward one team (some call it steam) is indicative that that team is more likely to win. This is consistent with the efficient market concept where the opinions of the general public collectively are pretty good indicators.
2-Some people are in the contrarian mode, feeling the public is generally wrong and one should go against line movement.
I am interested in baseball money lines in particular, and have some past data that I'm going to analyze. This data has "opening" and "closing" lines for about a six year period. I'm going to look at this to see if significant movement in one direction tells us anything about who is likely to win the game. And more importantly, what does that say about which way to wager.
I'm posting this for two reasons. The first one is curiosity. What do you guys think I'll find?
Secondly, as I do the analysis, I will likely post some raw results in hopes that someone may interpret them differently than I do.