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1. ## What's preferred? Yield or ROI

Two questions...

1. Yield vs. ROI
I'm assuming its a personal preference, but since there is a difference in ROI and Yield, curious as to what is most commonly preferred to measure performance.

I know some may say they are the same thing...but they're not.

ROI is the %age your bankroll has increased from its initial starting bank

Yield is how many times you had to re-invest your say 100 to get to the 300, and the resulting %age profit made from re-investing.

Is one preferred over the other?

2. Yield

Another question, on Yield

I use a formula of [(aw - ab) / ab] x 100%
aw = amount won
ab = amount wagered/risked

But if you risked \$1250 to win say \$1190, is your Yield still negative?

Ex. 1190-1250 = -60
-60/1250 = -0.048 or -4.8%

So is Yield really -4.8% or did I forget something?

2. None. Most preferred stat is Total Units Won. You don't pay the bills with your yield stat. A bettor with %4 yield may make profit then a bettor with %12 yield..Total Units Won; your total profit matters most.

3. Thanks for the input. Yes - also following units won/loss.

Regarding Yield though, is the below correct as although it shows I won, thus making profit, the yield is negative???

===================
I use a formula of [(aw - ab) / ab] x 100%
aw = amount won
ab = amount wagered/risked

But if you risked \$1250 to win say \$1190, is your Yield still negative?

Ex. 1190-1250 = -60
-60/1250 = -0.048 or -4.8%

So is Yield really -4.8% or did I forget something?
=====================

4. what do you care about yield anyways

but if you do then change the numerator to (aw+ab).

5. What I'm seeking (if it exists) is just one formula to use to calculate the yield since I'll be building this out in a spreadsheet and then into a program (the goal). In my research I keep seeing
[(aw - ab) / ab] x 100% , but I soon realized it doesn't take into account the above scenario where the amount won (aw) is less than the amount bet (ab)
I don't want to have to keep changing the yield formula (aw-ab) or (ab-aw).., so I assumed there should just be one simple formula that addresses the above???

Can anyone in here lend a hand to look at my spreadsheet to offer some feedback that the calculations are correct? Yes - I've got yield, ROI, units, etc.

6. If you can help, best way I think is to lend your expertise to look at my spreadsheet ? Help?

7. you're in way over your head if you can't do that for yourself

8. Please don't place any bets till you learn a little more math.

You are also using a different definition of ROI than I've seen ( profit / staked)

Sawyer is right though. ROI / Yield is a means to an end not an end in itself.

9. Looking for some help to validate the calculations.

Can you help me here, then I'll spread some Karma. If not..well..don't post.

10. Originally Posted by Sportsguy_USA
Looking for some help to validate the calculations.

Can you help me here, then I'll spread some Karma. If not..well..don't post.
If you think about it a bit longer, you'll understand that this is the best help you could hope for

ROI / Yield is a means to an end not an end in itself.
Also, how sure are you that you even have what you must have to even deserve ROI/Yield?
Some call it edge/positive expectation. After all, without it where all this ROI/Yield would come from.

So how sure are you?and where this confidence is coming from?

11. Originally Posted by Sawyer
None. Most preferred stat is Total Units Won. You don't pay the bills with your yield stat. A bettor with %4 yield may make profit then a bettor with %12 yield..Total Units Won; your total profit matters most.
You must be kidding.

Two tipsters:

a) 100 unit profit with 5% yield.

b) 75 unit profit with 15% yield.

Are you saying you prefer tipster "a" cause he has won more units? That's the funniest thing I've ever heard...

12. Originally Posted by Raizen
You must be kidding.

Two tipsters:

a) 100 unit profit with 5% yield.

b) 75 unit profit with 15% yield.

Are you saying you prefer tipster "a" cause he has won more units? That's the funniest thing I've ever heard...
First of all, I don't "prefer" any tipster. At the end of the month, when eveluating my performance, I consider total units won more then yield because as I said, you don't pay the bills with yield/roi. You may have a very sexy ROI by making very few bets but a high-volume tipster can come up with more profit. It's all about money won. Not about stats like yield/win rate etc.

13. Originally Posted by Sawyer
First of all, I don't "prefer" any tipster. At the end of the month, when eveluating my performance, I consider total units won more then yield because as I said, you don't pay the bills with yield/roi. You may have a very sexy ROI by making very few bets but a high-volume tipster can come up with more profit. It's all about money won. Not about stats like yield/win rate etc.
mathdotcom has deducted 232 SBR points from Sawyer for this post.

14. September,

You placed 50 bets. All odds are 2,00 (+100/EVEN). Your win rate is %60. You risked 1 unit on each game.

Total unit risked 50. (You win 30 bets and lost 20)
Your net profit is +10 units. It makes %20 return.

October,

You placed 80 bets. You won %58.75 of these 80 bets, 47-33.

Total unit risked 80. You won 47 bets, lost 33. Odds are +100 again in order to make the calculation easy.
Your net profit is +14 Units.

Total Unit risked 80, Net Profit +14 Units. It's %17.5 yield but you made more profit then previous month.

If 1 unit is 1000\$,

In September, you had %60 WIN RATE and %20 YIELD. Looks sexy, isn't it? But your net profit is 10,000\$.

In October, you had a lower win rate and a lower yield, %58.75 and %17.5 yield..Your net profit is 14,000\$.

Which one you prefer?

To have %20 yield but to make only 10k?
Or to have %17.5 yield but making 14k.

We're paying the bills with Total Units won, The Real money. Not with yield or win rate stats..

Of course, yield gives you a picture about a specific tipster about his productivity and style but there's no need to exaggerate it so much.

Have a great Saturday everyone!

15. I don't agree. The most important thing to evaluate a tipster is the yield or ROI. Always.

Following your reasoning I can say that we pay the bills with money, not with units. Units are another stat like yield and win rate. In your example the one who has won 10 units may be has made more money than who has won 14 units. And of course I prefer the first case.

It's curious how the US players make the units the more important and don't care about yield. It's really annoying cause in rest of the world is the yield which determinate how good a tipster is.

For example, I'm looking for some good handicapper to follow and bet in US sports but it's impossible. All the stats I found are something like "180-120 (60%) +35 units". WTF? Who cares about his units and win rate? Without yield it's impossible to know if he is a profitable tipster or not.

I found a really interesting handicapper with stats pretty similar to 650-250 (72%) +10000units. I thought he should be a money machine, awesome. But making a more detailed research of his historical I realized he has a 3% yield. Mediocre tipster. And people paying 500\$ for him. Off course, he has a lot of units....

Sorry for my english.

16. 3% is not at all mediocre if it is against real widely available lines. almost no one does better than that over the long haul, although 900 picks is a fairly small sample size so could be due to luck.

most everyone i know uses roi the way you are describing yield, the return on the individual bets without accounting for bankroll growth.

17. Originally Posted by skrtelfan
3% is not at all mediocre if it is against real widely available lines. almost no one does better than that over the long haul, although 900 picks is a fairly small sample size so could be due to luck.

most everyone i know uses roi the way you are describing yield, the return on the individual bets without accounting for bankroll growth.
Well, I consider a good tipster who have between 10-30% yield. All wich I follow have this yield. Ok, 3% isn't mediocre if you don't want to call it this way but is a really low yield and it's not worht to follow.

And yes, ROI and yield are pretty the same.

18. Originally Posted by Raizen
Well, I consider a good tipster who have between 10-30% yield.
Those records will have been faked, or are simply random (ie not a big enough sample size).

19. Originally Posted by HeeeHAWWWW
Those records will have been faked, or are simply random (ie not a big enough sample size).
No man, those records exist, I have been following many tipsters with it for 3-4 years....

About the sample size, some people consider it's all about the number of picks. I think that when a tipster is specialized in a particular leage it's impossible to wait until he have 3000-5000 picks, it may take 10 years to achieve this number. I think in this cases the time is also important, about 2-3 season will be enough to evaluate a tipster, even he have only 300-400 picks.

20. Originally Posted by Raizen
No man, those records exist, I have been following many tipsters with it for 3-4 years....

About the sample size, some people consider it's all about the number of picks. I think that when a tipster is specialized in a particular leage it's impossible to wait until he have 3000-5000 picks, it may take 10 years to achieve this number. I think in this cases the time is also important, about 2-3 season will be enough to evaluate a tipster, even he have only 300-400 picks.
Put it this way: 400 bets at 20% roi using half-Kelly turns a thousand bucks into a mean of \$7 million. Using the median, you would quadruple your bankroll every 82 bets.

21. Originally Posted by HeeeHAWWWW
Put it this way: 400 bets at 20% roi using half-Kelly turns a thousand bucks into a mean of \$7 million.
Yield/ROI is the profit on the investment. If your stake average are 2 units, in 400 bets you have staked 800 units. In this 400 bets you have a net profit of 100 units. Your yield will be 12.5% and your ROI 112.5%. ROI consider all the returned and yield only the net profit.

22. the guy with the lower roi might just be squeezing out more value by finding more bets that are less profitable whereas the guy with the higher roi is leaving some money on the table.

23. At the end of the day, (or month) what really matters is..How much your bankroll is increased. It's definetely another subject but wanted to say anyway: DON'T WITHDRAW MONEY OFTEN. DON'T WITHDRAW ANY MONEY FROM YOUR BANKROLL 'TIL YOU REACH YOUR TARGET! ALWAYS REINVEST YOUR PROFITS!!

I can't stress it enough!

The snow ball thing you know. The bigger the bankroll is, more profits..MORE POWER!!

Guys, about yield/roi thing. I think this way. It doesn't mean this is the universal truth. You may be disagree with me, I respect you. It's your opinion your after all. But my truth is this. I'm paying the bills with UNITS. I'm even paying my mortgage with my fukking units.

I wish everyone a profitable sunday. May Lady Luck Be With You!

24. Originally Posted by Raizen
No man, those records exist, I have been following many tipsters with it for 3-4 years....

About the sample size, some people consider it's all about the number of picks. I think that when a tipster is specialized in a particular leage it's impossible to wait until he have 3000-5000 picks, it may take 10 years to achieve this number. I think in this cases the time is also important, about 2-3 season will be enough to evaluate a tipster, even he have only 300-400 picks.
Yes, some people do consider a sample size to be the most important factor when evaluating prediction results.
And these people are right.

According to the law of small numbers, "short term" is a land of unbelievable extremes and yet, short term variance is commonly and drastically underestimated.

Universe does not care how long you have to wait till you get an appropriate number.
You not going to get any preferential treatment just because you are on a big hurry to get rich.
If you chose to chase most spectacular short term results you'll be chasing luckiest, not the best.
That's given.

Moreover, the best would not be advertising or fighting for your attention either, but that's another story.

25. Originally Posted by Inspirited
the guy with the lower roi might just be squeezing out more value by finding more bets that are less profitable whereas the guy with the higher roi is leaving some money on the table.
In a comparation of both that's true. But in terms of following them, you will adapt their stake average at what you want. In an equitable adaptation who will bring you more profit is who will have more yield even with less picks.

26. Originally Posted by Sawyer
At the end of the day, (or month) what really matters is..How much your bankroll is increased. It's definetely another subject but wanted to say anyway: DON'T WITHDRAW MONEY OFTEN. DON'T WITHDRAW ANY MONEY FROM YOUR BANKROLL 'TIL YOU REACH YOUR TARGET! ALWAYS REINVEST YOUR PROFITS!!

I can't stress it enough!

The snow ball thing you know. The bigger the bankroll is, more profits..MORE POWER!!

Guys, about yield/roi thing. I think this way. It doesn't mean this is the universal truth. You may be disagree with me, I respect you. It's your opinion your after all. But my truth is this. I'm paying the bills with UNITS. I'm even paying my mortgage with my fukking units.

I wish everyone a profitable sunday. May Lady Luck Be With You!
Let me put one last example:

Two fixed-term deposits with no limit investment:

a) 9% interest rate

b) 5% interest rate

It's obvious that everybody would choose the option "a", but you are saying that will choose the "b" and put the double money that people are depositing in "a" for win more than them. Good luck.

27. Originally Posted by hutennis
Yes, some people do consider a sample size to be the most important factor when evaluating prediction results.
And these people are right.

According to the law of small numbers, "short term" is a land of unbelievable extremes and yet, short term variance is commonly and drastically underestimated.

Universe does not care how long you have to wait till you get an appropriate number.
You not going to get any preferential treatment just because you are on a big hurry to get rich.
If you chose to chase most spectacular short term results you'll be chasing luckiest, not the best.
That's given.

Moreover, the best would not be advertising or fighting for your attention either, but that's another story.
As I said the time is another important factor. For example:

If I make one bet each month, and after 30 years I have 360 picks and 30% yield. Would you say that may be I've been lucky for 30 years?

And I'm who advise you. I can't believe that in a big fourm like this nobody knwos how to follow tipsters and make money even with no sports knowledge. It's shocking.

28. Originally Posted by Raizen
As I said the time is another important factor.
You said it - OK.
I'm not sure why you did and I certainly don't agree.

Time is an arbitrary measure and is completely useless for these types of evaluations.

For example:

If I make one bet each month, and after 30 years I have 360 picks and 30% yield. Would you say that may be I've been lucky for 30 years?
I absolutely would say it and you most certainly were lucky for 30 years.
Or, rather, over 360 flips (picks, tries...). Was it over 30 years, weeks or seconds does not matter.

And I'm who advise you.
Don;t worry, you don't.
You just exhibit a very common misunderstanding of a fairly simple subject.

I can't believe that in a big fourm like this nobody knwos how to follow tipsters and make money even with no sports knowledge. It's shocking.
That is, probably, not because nobody knows, but b/c pretty much everyone is totally aware that following tipsters and making money is oxymoron.
This is true, weather it is shocking to you or not.

Let me put one last example:

Two fixed-term deposits with no limit investment:

a) 9% interest rate

b) 5% interest rate

It's obvious that everybody would choose the option "a", but you are saying that will choose the "b" and put the double money that people are depositing in "a" for win more than them. Good luck.
If you believe, that numbers shown by tipster today are as guaranteed to stay the same in a future as interest rate on your CD (thus making tipster and CD basically the same thing in your mind) - then good luck to you.You gonna need a lot of it.

29. Sorry hutennis but my english is really poor and keep a conversation with technicals terms is an extra effort for me so I will leave here the conversation.

Just one point, I'm living of this (following tipsters) since 4 years and know a lot of people also and we use this methods I've described. Here in europe is really common. It's curious how in US is really difference.

I disagree with you but anyway thank you for your correct debate. Good luck in future

30. Originally Posted by Raizen
Let me put one last example:

Two fixed-term deposits with no limit investment:

a) 9% interest rate

b) 5% interest rate

It's obvious that everybody would choose the option "a", but you are saying that will choose the "b" and put the double money that people are depositing in "a" for win more than them. Good luck.
Sports betting doesn't work this way. You can't compare a fixed interest rate with yield. In interest rate, choosing "a" will give you more money without doubt..however, in sports betting you can win more money by selecting Tipster-B. A tipster with %5 yield, may make profit then a tipster with %8 yield. There's too many factors such as number of plays, limit/liquidity of leagues selected etc.

In additon, you must add human factor too. Humans are not machines. There may be %5 fixed interest rate, but there isn't anything such as %5 fixed yield.

I don't say yield/ROI is unimportant, I just say that's not the whole thing. No need to exaggerate yield/ROI so much. I can show you a tipster with %20 yield, interested? Great but he picks only 10 bets/month, LoL. What's the beauty of %20 yield if you gonna make only +2 units/month?

31. Originally Posted by Sawyer
Sports betting doesn't work this way. You can't compare a fixed interest rate with yield. In interest rate, choosing "a" will give you more money without doubt..however, in sports betting you can win more money by selecting Tipster-B. A tipster with %5 yield, may make profit then a tipster with %8 yield. There's too many factors such as number of plays, limit/liquidity of leagues selected etc.

In additon, you must add human factor too. Humans are not machines. There may be %5 fixed interest rate, but there isn't anything such as %5 fixed yield.

I don't say yield/ROI is unimportant, I just say that's not the whole thing. No need to exaggerate yield/ROI so much. I can show you a tipster with %20 yield, interested? Great but he picks only 10 bets/month, LoL. What's the beauty of %20 yield if you gonna make only +2 units/month?
You say it as a joke, but this is exacly what we are looking for, but he has to be spezialiced in one league and have at least 300-400 picks. We collect a group of tipsters like this and follow them. At the end, for example in 4 years I'm doing this, the total I have is 5000-6000 picks and 10-15% yield. The yield depends on how good you are selecting tipsters. So I have a 10-15% interest rate on the long run and can invest what I want, doesn't matter if a tispter bet 1 or 1 million units per pick. What bank offer you a 10-15% interest rate? I know it's not the same, obvious, but if you want more interest have to accept more risk.

Regards.

32. The problem is you don't realize %20 yield with 10 bet is something very flexible. 60 or 100 bets is a more reliable size for a specific tipster. Even if he starts out cold, say like 0-6 or 0-7, still he has more upcoming bets ahead. On the other side, when 10 bets/month pick guy goes 0-6, best he can do will be 4-6. Google Standart deviation and Law of Averages.

Btw, you don't know the difference between interest rate and return on your investment. A bank offering %5 interest and %10 yield are completely different things.

Let's say your capital/bankroll is 100,000\$. If you put this money to bank, assuming your bank gives %5 interest rate, your bankroll will be 105,000\$.

If your yield is %10, it doesn't mean your bankroll will be 110,000\$ after 1 year. Will be much higher. You may have only 10,000 bankroll but you can risk 100,000\$ in a month since stakes are returned after you win.

You're talking in yields, let's talk in units. Let's say you're too lazy to handicap games on your own and 10 tipsters are available in market for you, waiting for you to choose them.

James %5 yield, makes +4 unit/month.
Lars %20 yield, makes +2 unit/month.
Jason %30 yield, makes +1 unit/month.
Kirk %4 yield, makes +6 unit/month.
Dave %3 yield, makes +10 unit/month.

You have to pick 2 tipsters so you pick Lars and Jason, correct?

Great investment..

There's some great sites and tipsters, making consistent profits but not a sexy yield. Let me give you an example. Won't give its name since I don't know if it's legal to give other betting/tipsters sites names here; XXXXX team produced 77.87 units (+623 Units actually but by betting 8 units flat, each game. So in case of betting 1 unit/each game, it's equal to 77.87 units) with a YIELD BELOW %3.

A yield wh*re would probably miss/ignore these guys. However, +77.87 units/year (makes approximately 6.5 Units / Month, pretty good profit from a single tipster!) is a great extra profit.

I'm afraid you don't understand me, you keep talking blah blah blah and you think your true is the universal truth, %100, proven/tested by scientists etc. I'm afraid there isn't anything I can do for you. I wish you success and good luck in your betting adventure.

33. Raizen I think you underestimate the power of randomness especially when these touts can have 50 different accounts with 50 different sets of picks. They only need one to look good.

34. Originally Posted by Sawyer
I'm afraid you don't understand me, you keep talking blah blah blah and you think your true is the universal truth, %100, proven/tested by scientists etc. I'm afraid there isn't anything I can do for you. I wish you success and good luck in your betting adventure.
Don't worry, must be the idiom. That's why I can explain it clear. For example in this:

James %5 yield, makes +4 unit/month.
Lars %20 yield, makes +2 unit/month.
Jason %30 yield, makes +1 unit/month.
Kirk %4 yield, makes +6 unit/month.
Dave %3 yield, makes +10 unit/month.

I will win more money with Lars and Jason because I prorate their stakes. For example one tipster have an stake average per bet of 10 units and other tipster have 1 unit per bet. I divide first tipster /2 and multiply second *2. Isn't so easy, I also take in consideration the average number of picks per month. So at the end I staking the same amount with each tipster, and I can win more money with one that win 3 units than another that win 100 units. It's all about yield.

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