1. #71
    Unknown User
    Update your status
    Unknown User's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-23-14
    Posts: 33
    Betpoints: 190

    When using the definitions posted by the OP Yield is a more important stat in a capper you want to follow.

    Comparing yields will be more accurate and will also be easier to copy.

    The definition of ROI used by the OP can lead to very strange records. If you follow a winning capper his most recent bets are going to influence his stats greatly. This increases the sample size you need to review. If you are betting a large bankroll yourself it might be impossible to copy his results because the liquidity to attain the same ROI isn't there. In addition you won't be able to withdraw from your roll to copy his results.

    But having said that I don't like yield that much either. Especially if you are designing your own systems, there are many factors to keep in mind. Not just yield. For example $/hour and ability to scale up. I think for example for guys with small-medium bankrolls (small=me) trying to cap by actually watching games will return terrible $/hour.

    -When determining to follow someone else go with Yield but adjust for reliability (sample size)
    -When evaluating your own results go with (absolute $ - cost of capital) vs time invested

  2. #72
    lamichaeljames
    lamichaeljames's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-02-14
    Posts: 40
    Betpoints: 109

    Good response.. But I do think Bimmer2 hit the nail on the head.

  3. #73
    Sawyer
    Sawyer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-01-09
    Posts: 7,592
    Betpoints: 6650

    ROI, Yield, Win rate etc. These stats alone are not enough! You must know how serious the capper is. Is he a professional? Part Time Handicapper or Full Time Handicapper? Is he a student who is living with his parents? Does he take day offs during periods when he's troubled with exams? Is he an emotional person who is unable to concentrate on handicapping when broke up with his girlfriend? %20 ROI may sound amazing but what if he is betting 20$ each game? I would prefer a capper with %10 ROI who bets 1000$ / game then a capper who bets 20$ game with %20 ROI.

    Numbers are subject to change. You're talking just too theoretical. At the end of the day, the most succesful capper is the one who has the most money in his pocket, not the biggest ROI, Yield or Win Rate..

    If anyone is claiming he is a very succesful, brilliant, genius handicapper, then I always ask them, Are you a wealthy man? If you have such a sexy ROI, Yield then you must be a very wealthy man, a millionnaire. You should respect only cappers who made a respectable wealth by betting..
    Last edited by Sawyer; 06-06-14 at 05:19 AM.

  4. #74
    snapperman2
    Keep bothering on
    snapperman2's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-19-10
    Posts: 2,078
    Betpoints: 16306

    No successful, wealthy handicapper is going to sell his picks. He can make more money by betting them himself, and he will be afraid that other people will reverse engineer his system if he gives them picks.

  5. #75
    Sawyer
    Sawyer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-01-09
    Posts: 7,592
    Betpoints: 6650

    Quote Originally Posted by snapperman2 View Post
    No successful, wealthy handicapper is going to sell his picks. He can make more money by betting them himself, and he will be afraid that other people will reverse engineer his system if he gives them picks.
    Well, it depends actually. If it's a minor sport/league, or a system that can be figured out by other people, then you may be right. Otherwise, a successful handicapper will do better by selling his picks. Why?

    Let's say you're betting 2k/game. You make +10 units/month. It makes 10,000$.
    Now, let's imagine you have 50 clients. Every client pays you 200$/month. It makes +10,000$ more.
    So you double your income by selling your picks.

    However, if it's a minor sport/league, you may prefer to bet by yourself in order to again advantage of line since odds/line may move dramatically after everybody bet.

  6. #76
    magyarsvensk
    magyarsvensk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-25-14
    Posts: 193
    Betpoints: 378

    Quote Originally Posted by snapperman2 View Post
    No successful, wealthy handicapper is going to sell his picks. He can make more money by betting them himself, and he will be afraid that other people will reverse engineer his system if he gives them picks.
    If someone could reverse engineer a system just by seeing the picks themselves, then they could reverse engineer the actual winners each day in the exact same manner. In other words, both are impossible.

    A capper with saleable picks would clearly make more money betting his picks AND selling them than by doing either one or the other. I would be suspicious of a capper who doesn't be this own picks. How good could they be?

  7. #77
    Sawyer
    Sawyer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-01-09
    Posts: 7,592
    Betpoints: 6650

    Quote Originally Posted by magyarsvensk View Post
    I would be suspicious of a capper who doesn't be this own picks. How good could they be?
    Must ignore handicappers who sell their picks but don't bet on them.

  8. #78
    statnerds
    Put me in coach
    statnerds's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-23-09
    Posts: 4,047
    Betpoints: 103

    Quote Originally Posted by snapperman2 View Post
    No successful, wealthy handicapper is going to sell his picks. He can make more money by betting them himself, and he will be afraid that other people will reverse engineer his system if he gives them picks.
    tell that to eddie golden and RAS at $2,400 a pop. not being critical here but your post ignores limits and obstacles to get enough money down. also, much less risk involved selling rather than trying to find credible books that would take the action and pay out.

First 123
Top