Two players from opposing teams. The spread on the game is pick.
Player A: Ave 31.29 min per game and has 56 three pointers on the year in 29 games. In his last game he hit 4 because the side got their ass beat. He also played 33.5 min.
Player B: Ave 28.69 min per game and has 77 three pointers on the year in 29 games. In his last game he played 30 minutes and hit 3 of them in a game they won handily.
Player B is on the home team and they are up 1-0 in the best of three play-off series.
Odds for more 3pters:
Player A: -117
Player B: -117
Plugging those numbers in to poisson using 3 pointers per minute on the court and then adjusting it up to expected minutes and adjusting player A up slightly to account for some extra minutes and error - I still have player B as a decent bet. I know a lot will come down to who will trailing at the end, but this could be very well be either side. How's my method and thinking?