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[NBA] Playing totals that differ 1 point from Pinny line
My local is pretty slow at moving lines early on so I'm usually able to bet totals that differ 1 pt from the real line. Problem is that he gets sharper when it gets closer to tipoff. I can usually do this 7-8 hours before the game starts. Is this profitable at all?
If I could get 1.5 points, I would do it blindly. 1.0..I would probably pass.
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I can get at least 1.5 pts different totals (compared to pinny) in 4/8 tonight's games. It happens all the time with sides as well (f.e. at this moment I can bet 76ers +9.5, Warriors +8.5 and Nets +11.5), though the line is -117. Would you exploit this using kelly? And how reliable is HPC in these cases ?
Look at push charts. If the market price is +7 -110, I would pass at +7.5 -110, but bomb away on +8 -110. +8 -117 is very marginal though.Originally Posted by Stef@n
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Justin, what are you thoughts on this topic for sides and totals for 1H and 1Q plays?
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You mean sides, not totals.
And yes, it is profitable. I'd blindly bet them.
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for nba totals I don't think it's worth it. For spreads if you can get a full point on the game spread then yes it is.
from his follow up post he's referring to spreads, I think.
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Thanks!
+8 -117 is still +EV assuming true spread of +7 flat. But I think it's a stretch to say Pinnacle is the most efficient ALL the time. When my partners and I move on something, we'll move other lines before we move Pinnacle generally. And I've noticed patterns during baseball, for instance, with big money moving Cris and Pinnacle following. That said, a stale line is a stale line...but I wouldn't take Pinny being 100% right when it differs from some other big-money books as a given...
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