[hillardoh]

how would would you handicap a game with out starters and find a predictable sore and spread

[MonkeyF0cker]

I would probably work hard to model and backtest it.

Then, I'd post it on a public forum.

[Justin7]

how would would you handicap a game with out starters and find a predictable sore and spread

Do you see a betting opportunity on this?

[hillardoh]

yes for betting the second half of the game when starters often get fouled out of the game or often the players get hurt during the first half of the game. Also in the NBA coaches often times sits out key players just before the playoffs starts if they have already clinched a playoff spot. Sometimes I can spot a rare case in college basketball where 3 or more starters are suspended or hurt and cant play.

[Justin7]

yes for betting the second half of the game when starters often get fouled out of the game or often the players get hurt during the first half of the game. Also in the NBA coaches often times sits out key players just before the playoffs starts if they have already clinched a playoff spot. Sometimes I can spot a rare case in college basketball where 3 or more starters are suspended or hurt and cant play.

Basketball on Paper discusses analyzing individual player efficiency in one of its appendices. This is a good starting point.

[TomG]

adjusted plus minus i think is what people use. just google that phrase there's lots of basketball geeks out there who do the work for you