03-11-09, 04:05 PM
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#1
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Reverse Line Movements
Has anyone tracked reverse line movements (where the majority of bets are placed on one team yet the line moves in the opposite directions expected) over a large sample size? I've just been looking at the numbers on pregame.com and it seems like it would be a pretty good spot to start to find some good games. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
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03-11-09, 04:34 PM
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#2
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50/50
if there's an edge, idiots would jump all over it
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03-11-09, 04:55 PM
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#3
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yeah i kinda figured it wasnt' as easy as just taking the line every time it moved the opposite of the public - do any of you guys use it as a factor though? It seems like if only 20% of the bets are going in on one side yet the line actually gets worse for that team there would have to be some big money going in on that team to offset the 80% of bets on the other team. Would it be fair to say that this big money is usually going to be more educated than the public? Or are these line movements just done by the sportsbooks in response to something else - like injury updates? Either that or perhaps sites reporting betting percentages arent' very accurate?
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03-11-09, 05:14 PM
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#4
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There is actually a lot of discussion on this site about this subject.
I can't seem to link it, but look for the thread title "When the spread doesn't move, follow the money" in the NFL betting forum.
That's a good place to start.
Last edited by smitch124; 03-11-09 at 05:18 PM.
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03-11-09, 05:16 PM
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#5
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RLM has won in every sport with Sides the last two years. Do not use it for totals though with the exception of NHL Totals triggered by Pinnacle.
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03-11-09, 05:17 PM
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#6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vince Carter
50/50
if there's an edge, idiots would jump all over it
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Not True. Read my last post.
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03-12-09, 02:17 AM
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#7
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A valid tool is rarely ever a method onto itself. In my opinion you need to have a stronger angle than only RLM to pull the trigger on a bet. For method-based plays that are strong, I would ignore RLM. But if my play is not as strong, I might cancel it because of RLM.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LT Profits
RLM has won in every sport with Sides the last two years.
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Do you have the numbers over that time period? I remember guys playing this here for football and getting blasted. |
SBR Founder
Join Date:
12/14/2005
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03-12-09, 03:10 AM
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#8
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really LT? I've been tracking it, but my sample size is very small so maybe that is why.
I find that following the money when the spread doesn't move works the best.
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03-12-09, 03:13 AM
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#9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LT Profits
RLM has won in every sport with Sides the last two years. Do not use it for totals though with the exception of NHL Totals triggered by Pinnacle.
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which side? the side getting the points? or losing the points
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03-12-09, 03:23 AM
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#10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vince Carter
which side? the side getting the points? or losing the points
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Depends on if the fave or the dog is getting the consensus...the rlm is on the side that moves against the consensus.
One example I see from today is:
Charlotte (23 % of bets)
St Joseph's (77% of bets)
Line moved from St Joe -3.5 -110 to St Joe -2 -105 at Pinny...the move was against the consensus so by the rlm and play would have been on Charlotte.
I haven't followed it exclusively but have used betting % in my capping since the beginning of mlb last season.
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03-12-09, 03:58 AM
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#11
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public is heavy on minny -2 and line just moved to -1.5 so the rlm play is on nw then
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03-12-09, 04:03 AM
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#12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vince Carter
public is heavy on minny -2 and line just moved to -1.5 so the rlm play is on nw then
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LT tracked them with 1 pt line move against the consensus (using Pinny) after at least 5000 bets via sportsinsight but yeah you have the right idea with it moving against 87% and showing +101 at Pinny...I've also noticed that when a play is heavy on one side (say 75%+) and there is no line movement but Pinny drops the juice like it has here that it has been fairly solid within a few hours of the gametime. Haven't tracked it...just something I use when looking at consensus and handicapping.
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03-12-09, 05:48 AM
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#13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vince Carter
really LT? I've been tracking it, but my sample size is very small so maybe that is why.
I find that following the money when the spread doesn't move works the best.
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What do you mean by "following the money"... are you following the smaller bets or the larger bets?
If 65% of "actual" bets are on side A and 35% of "actual" bets are on side B, yet the line does not shift in either direction, obviously the larger bets are being placed on side B. I really hope your post does not indicate that you'd bet on side A in this scenario.
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03-12-09, 05:52 AM
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#14
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the larger bets are obv. on B so that's what i meant
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03-12-09, 06:51 AM
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#15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark Horse
A valid tool is rarely ever a method onto itself. In my opinion you need to have a stronger angle than only RLM to pull the trigger on a bet. For method-based plays that are strong, I would ignore RLM. But if my play is not as strong, I might cancel it because of RLM.
Do you have the numbers over that time period? I remember guys playing this here for football and getting blasted.
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I will update the numbers and do an updated article when there is some down time, probably after NCAA Tourney. That is actually perfect timing, as it coincides with the beginning of baseball season.
As for the guys that got blasted in NFL, I suspect many were using half-point moves instead of full-point, or they were using selective moves and not all of them. All of this will be confirmed when I run the numbers.
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03-12-09, 02:03 PM
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#16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LT Profits
I will update the numbers and do an updated article when there is some down time, probably after NCAA Tourney. That is actually perfect timing, as it coincides with the beginning of baseball season.
As for the guys that got blasted in NFL, I suspect many were using half-point moves instead of full-point, or they were using selective moves and not all of them. All of this will be confirmed when I run the numbers.
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Much appreciated, LT.
I'd be interested in the fluctuations as well. Especially in football there may be little time to catch up with a losing streak in the same season. (A single angle is often subject to major swings, whereas a combination of separate angles into a cohesive 'method' is more stable).
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SBR Founder
Join Date:
12/14/2005
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03-12-09, 03:31 PM
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#17
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It does work. I find it works ALOT better with home dogs more then anything. That is what I play more often then not. I have done very well over last few yrs.
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03-12-09, 09:38 PM
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#18
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I tracked this for 3 years but lost my data on the other computer without backing it up anywhere else 
A couple things though:
Early in the season is better than late
A HUGE spread that moves against say 25 to 24 is not that great (NCAABB and NCAAFB)
Pro Basketball seems most profitable doing this
I use 15 pts on the ML in baseball and hockey |
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03-13-09, 02:19 AM
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#19
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My SS used to track it, until I upped at books and started using it. Since then NBA has done 6-12 down 7 units and NHL 4-8 down a unit. I'm sure they will come back and I plan on using it all through MLB since i joined hockey and NBA late. I'm also using the free service, which means my data can be late, but it is what it is for now.
Thanks LT for the insight and I look forward to your article tomorrow.
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03-13-09, 10:02 AM
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#20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FreeFall
My SS used to track it, until I upped at books and started using it. Since then NBA has done 6-12 down 7 units and NHL 4-8 down a unit. I'm sure they will come back and I plan on using it all through MLB since i joined hockey and NBA late. I'm also using the free service, which means my data can be late, but it is what it is for now.
Thanks LT for the insight and I look forward to your article tomorrow.
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What guidelines are you using?
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03-24-09, 03:00 PM
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#21
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My company, Sports Insight, has been tracking reverser line movement since 2002. We've published countless articles on the subject. When the line goes against the public betting percentages it's a excellent indicator of "Sharp Money" (big money) being placed. Based on 6.5 years worth of data across all major US based sports the edge works out to be 53%-54%. It may not need seem like much but when your sample size is well over 15,000 games its very significant.
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03-29-09, 03:13 PM
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#22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SportsInsights
Based on 6.5 years worth of data across all major US based sports the edge works out to be 53%-54%.
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Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
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03-31-09, 03:26 PM
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#23
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I Know, We Know, We Know, do not bet with JP but Man "53%-54%" Is Just Not Enough, for Me, I hit that % and I would Not Be Betting at All. IMO Yes RLM with a good team plus Big STeam, Wait, wait wait, for Only those spots then play, and Now With MLB Play ALL The Square Plays Small Big Dogs Now There one Me Happy to go 50%=Big Profits...
bol  |
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03-31-09, 03:27 PM
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#24
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P/S I'm a Premium Pro" Member....
IMO It's Not the Be All End All, just a good tool to have esp. on the real time odds.
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03-31-09, 03:30 PM
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#25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mixpicks
I Know, We Know, We Know, do not bet with JP but Man "53%-54%" Is Just Not Enough, for Me, I hit that % and I would Not Be Betting at All. IMO Yes RLM with a good team plus Big STeam, Wait, wait wait, for Only those spots then play, and Now With MLB Play ALL The Square Plays Small Big Dogs Now There one Me Happy to go 50%=Big Profits...
bol |
The most successful gamblers in the world that bet any kind of volume are very happy to hit 55%.
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03-31-09, 04:59 PM
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#26
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Thoughts: Predict the games, don't watch money because money does not flow the way the books attempt to tell people it does.
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04-01-09, 03:21 AM
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#27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SportsInsights
My company, Sports Insight, has been tracking reverser line movement since 2002. We've published countless articles on the subject. When the line goes against the public betting percentages it's a excellent indicator of "Sharp Money" (big money) being placed. Based on 6.5 years worth of data across all major US based sports the edge works out to be 53%-54%. It may not need seem like much but when your sample size is well over 15,000 games its very significant.
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Is there any way we can get this data?
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