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  1. 02-03-12 05:31 AM #1
    statnerds
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    Default Can anyone help with Edge on this Prop please

    and I thank anyone willing to read and/or answer

    my dumb ass bet Brady Over 324.5 yards

    thing dropped 9 yards to 315.5. however, Local sent a prop sheet this week and has Brady at 327.5.

    Should I make the yards increments of 12 to determine my edge via Poisson? and then buy it back and then some?

    any help is appreciated.
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  2. 02-03-12 08:49 AM #2
    AlwaysDrawing
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    This is the wrong application for Poisson.
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  3. 02-03-12 04:27 PM #3
    statnerds
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    and Poisson is wrong if we used a yardage increments because....
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  4. 02-03-12 05:04 PM #4
    AlwaysDrawing
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    Conditions for using Poisson:

    1. number of trials is large (false, not discrete trials)
    2. odds of an occurrence are small p<10ish% (again, not discrete trials)
    3. increments go up by exactly 1 (false, yards go up in bunches)
    4. Past performance is (likely) indicative of future results (maybe true).

    Poisson is used to estimate things like sacks or rebounds.
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  5. 02-04-12 12:00 AM #5
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlwaysDrawing View Post
    Conditions for using Poisson:

    1. number of trials is large (false, not discrete trials)
    2. odds of an occurrence are small p<10ish% (again, not discrete trials)
    3. increments go up by exactly 1 (false, yards go up in bunches)
    4. Past performance is (likely) indicative of future results (maybe true).

    Poisson is used to estimate things like sacks or rebounds.
    1. Using pass completions, this gets very close.
    2. P is definitely too high. Is n/p high enough for a confident approximation? Probably not... but it will still give a decent estimate.
    3. Using clumps of x yards will work, treating each clump as "1"
    4. Valid, as long as you correctly consider injuries.
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  6. 02-04-12 12:13 AM #6
    MonkeyF0cker
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    Yuck. It's your money though...
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  7. 02-04-12 09:37 AM #7
    AlwaysDrawing
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    1. Using pass completions, this gets very close.
    2. P is definitely too high. Is n/p high enough for a confident approximation? Probably not... but it will still give a decent estimate.
    3. Using clumps of x yards will work, treating each clump as "1"
    4. Valid, as long as you correctly consider injuries.
    This sounds like you're endorsing Poisson for this application.

    Would you personally analyze this prop that way? I would most certainly not.
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