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  1. 01-19-12 07:18 PM #1
    jolmscheid
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    Default Kelly Calculator - More Than 15 Events?

    Hey guys...using the simultaneous bet kelly calculator, the max can be 15 events...what if one has more than 15 events going on at once? How will this change the kelly outputs?
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  2. 01-19-12 07:18 PM #2
    jolmscheid
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    Thanks in advance for the help..
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  3. 01-19-12 07:42 PM #3
    RickySteve
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    Read Ganchrow's thread on the subject and create your own.
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  4. 01-19-12 09:10 PM #4
    jolmscheid
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    Thanks Steve..I did that..im not skilled enough to make my own however..ha
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  5. 01-19-12 11:22 PM #5
    FourLengthsClear
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    Suppose you have three concurrent wagers and normally bet full Kelly

    a) With a recommended risk amount of 6.0% of BR if it was a single non-concurrent wager.
    b) With a recommended risk amount of 5.5% of BR if it was a single non-concurrent wager.
    c) With a recommended risk amount of 4.0% of BR if it was a single non-concurrent wager.

    The risk amount of each wager should be reduced by the risk percentage of all the other concurrent wagers.
    So in the case of wager a) The adjusted/reduced risk amount would be calculated as follows:

    6% * (1-5.5%) * (1-4%)
    = 5.4432%

    Below is a screenshot of the type of Excel sheet you should consider developing. See if you can follow the steps/logic and then extend it down to 20, 30 or however many rows you need.

    Last edited by FourLengthsClear; 01-19-12 at 11:43 PM.
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  6. 01-20-12 10:30 AM #6
    jolmscheid
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    Thanks four lengths...I appreciate the help..I will look at the scteenshot...any possibility you could guide me on how to develop one?
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  7. 01-20-12 11:27 AM #7
    jolmscheid
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    Also, is it recommended to use full or half kelly?
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  8. 01-20-12 12:34 PM #8
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by jolmscheid View Post
    Thanks four lengths...I appreciate the help..I will look at the scteenshot...any possibility you could guide me on how to develop one?
    I have attached the actual spreadsheet. See how you get on with it.
    Do you understand the basis of how to calculate?
    Attached Files
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  9. 01-20-12 12:35 PM #9
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by jolmscheid View Post
    Also, is it recommended to use full or half kelly?
    Very much depends on your confidence in your EV calculations.
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  10. 01-20-12 01:31 PM #10
    bztips
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    As noted by Ganch in his original thread, and as I posted a couple weeks ago, Ganch's simultaneous Kelly formula is optimal only if you also bet ALL of the intermediate multi-team parlays -- not likely to happen with 15 simultaneous events. So don't sweat the exact formula provided by fourlengths.
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  11. 01-20-12 02:47 PM #11
    jolmscheid
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    Thanks guys...I am confident with my edge....its just that on a busy Saturday, I could have more than 15 events and so I want to be sure o am implementing kelly as optimal as possible..
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  12. 01-20-12 03:03 PM #12
    FourLengthsClear
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    Bztips is right about the parlays issue, I was going to come on to that.
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  13. 01-20-12 08:17 PM #13
    jolmscheid
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    Hmm...I cannot seem to get a hang of the spreadsheet you attached FourLengths...perhaps I am using it wrong.
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  14. 01-22-12 12:10 PM #14
    jolmscheid
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    Quote Originally Posted by FourLengthsClear View Post

    I have attached the actual spreadsheet. See how you get on with it.
    Do you understand the basis of how to calculate?
    Hey 4LC...could you look at the attachment? Have I set it up correctly? For instance, I have entered in example edges and put in the last column of 1/2 Kelly Risk....does the last column look correct? Would the last column show what my RISK amount would be for 1/2 kelly?

    I would appreciate your help...
    Attached Files
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  15. 01-22-12 01:26 PM #15
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by jolmscheid View Post
    Hey 4LC...could you look at the attachment? Have I set it up correctly? For instance, I have entered in example edges and put in the last column of 1/2 Kelly Risk....does the last column look correct? Would the last column show what my RISK amount would be for 1/2 kelly?

    I would appreciate your help...
    I will but it won't be until tomorrow sometime.
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  16. 01-22-12 02:58 PM #16
    jolmscheid
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    That sounds fine...thank you 4LC
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  17. 01-23-12 11:08 AM #17
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by jolmscheid View Post
    Hey 4LC...could you look at the attachment? Have I set it up correctly? For instance, I have entered in example edges and put in the last column of 1/2 Kelly Risk....does the last column look correct? Would the last column show what my RISK amount would be for 1/2 kelly?

    I would appreciate your help...
    No, that wasn't right.

    I have attached another spreadsheet which I think is what you are looking for. The only inputs you need are in the shaded cells. I still have not taken any account of recommended parlays.
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  18. 01-23-12 05:40 PM #18
    jolmscheid
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    Thanks 4LC...that helps a ton
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