I, like many here, have believed in the efficient market. That results are basically a random walk and that the martingale (in a probability context, not to be confused with that double-your-bet thing) applies in essentially all gambling situations. That said, I've been reading intriguing material re the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH), which, simply put, claims that the market is efficient only after it adjusts; that news is not
instantaneously absorbed. Therefore arbitrage opportunities exist.
In fact, I practiced the technique in the futures market without knowing what it was. I busted in the market after making a bad decision on live cattle, but before then met with appreciable success in forex and coffee. But I digress.
Obvious evidence of AMH working is news of an injury after lines are set. Another one is books setting lines in anticipation of emotional bettors favoring certain teams, adjusting lines as "smart money" recognises the discrepancy, meanwhile sopping up the gravy.
So, this is the think tank, right? Anyone care to share thoughts on how us regular Joes can apply AMH to sop up a little gravy of our own?