[xyz]

Assume the player has the ability to do one of the following (may or may not be a realistic assumption):

1. Book a bet at 5 cents better than no-vig price 24 hours before the game
2. Book a bet at 5 cents better than no-vig price 12 hours before the game
3. Book a bet at 5 cents better than no-vig price 6 hours before the game
4. Book a bet at 5 cents better than no-vig price minutes before the game

NOTE: no-vig price above is referring to the no-vig price at the time the bet is booked, not the closing no-vig price

From Justin's video, option 4 seems profitable long term. My guess is the other three options should also be profitable long term. Is that true? If so, which one out of the four is more profitable? Thanks for your insight.

[Peep]

The "closer to" is more profitable only because you have a (small) positive expectation bet each time.

Further away, you have a chance of the line moving in either direction. So on some you will have a higher margin of expected profit, on some a lesser one, or even a negative expectation.

This is the area that steam chasers live in. They try and get the 5 cents at a slow moving book, creating a positive expectation as a line moves before all the books notice it.

[Patrick McIrish]

There's a reason books afraid to take a bet wait as long as they can before hanging numbers. They want to wait until the number shakes out as much as possible, safer that way. That's why square books like BoDog for example do not get out there early, more risk involved. The big boys that take all comers and are first to hang openers do not have the same hold % as these square books but they make up for it in volume. At least that's the general idea.

What's this about a Justin video? Link please.

[Patrick McIrish]

Originally Posted by Patrick McIrish

What's this about a Justin video? Link please.

Disregard.

[MonkeyF0cker]

The obvious choice is option 4 simply because you could get an edge in nearly all markets. Not all markets present an edge throughout the day since your estimated FV may continuously fall in the vig. Normally, it is easier to find value in openers (essentially the greater the time before the close, the more likely you are to find value at some point in time). Intuitively, the converse would offer the greatest benefit in your proposed scenario since the limited time for variance would mostly continue to give you an edge in each market you bet.

[reno cool]

seems to be no difference.

even if you assume line gets more accurate to some true probability towards the end, on average the movement will balance out.

[MonkeyF0cker]

As well, all available info would already be known in the minutes before game time: from injury to ailment to demotion to trade.

[Peep]

seems to be no difference.

even if you assume line gets more accurate to some true probability towards the end, on average the movement will balance out.

Yeah, that is an interesting approach to thinking about it Reno. You should gain as much "edge" as you lose on the average.

I still think 4 is better though, in that you have a (theorical) edge in all games, which I would prefer to more in some and less in some.

[Justin7]

I agree with the original poster. They're all good, but #4 is the best. The earlier you bet it, the more your edge varies (as does the closing line from where you bet it).

[Arilou]

#1 is best. Think of this as a 2-part process: You place a bet against a line, and you recieve a discount (which could, to make things very clear, take the form of a cash payment back to you). Thus, the only question is, if you have to place a bet would you rather do it early or late? If you have no knowledge of anything they are identical, since you are choosing at random, but if you can do better than random the earlier you book the better you will do.

In terms of variance, there is no practical difference. You can view it as a variance in edge followed by a variance in results, in which case it looks like there is a difference, but if for each bet you choose at random between a 60-40 shot and a 40-60 shot, you still bat 50-50 and still get the exact same distribution. The only risk is that your side selection is worse than random, which against early lines is highly unlikely.