[Igetp2s]

Can anyone give me the % of games decided by 1 goal, that DOES NOT go to OT?

Obviously, the farther back the better, up till the lockout.

Basically, I wanted to compare prices for the favorite at -0.5 for 60 minute wagering (without OT), vs. the favorite at -1.5 on the runline.

Any help would be appreciated.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by Igetp2s

Can anyone give me the % of games decided by 1 goal, that DOES NOT go to OT?

Of the 3,865 NHL games from the 2005/6 season through Nov. 4 of the 2008/9 season:

• 1,803 games (46.65%) were decided by exactly 1 goal (either in Reg Time or OT).
• 881 games (22.79%) went to OT.
• Of the 3,865-881=2,984 games (77.21%) that did not go to OT, 1,803-881=922 games (30.90%) were decided by exactly 1 goal.

But is this really what you're looking for?

[Ganchrow]

If in fact you were looking for these figures as they relate to faveorite winning by Eaxctly :

Of the 3,814 NHL games from the 2005/6 season through Nov. 4 of the 2008/9 season with a clear ML favorite:

• 869 games (22.78%) did not go to OT.
• Of the 2,945 games (77.22%) that did not go to OT 1,812 games (61.53%) were won by the favorite
• Of the 2,945 games (77.22%) that did not go to OT 531 games (18.03%) were won by the favorite by exactly 1 goal.
• Of the 2,945 games (77.22%) that did not go to OT 1,281 games (43.50%) were won by the favorite by more than 1 goal.

[pico]

where can you get these data?

[LT Profits]

I believe Ganch scrapes the data from covers.

[pico]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

I believe Ganch scrapes the data from covers.

is that where you got your stats?

if that is where you all smart people get data, i might as well write a crawler for covers. i don't really want to use perl. tried it with php once, but gave me headaches.

[pico]

anyone willing to post some genric covers crawler code?

[Igetp2s]

Thanks Ganch, exactly what I needed.

[unit1884]

869 games (22.78%) did not go to OT.

I HIGHLY doubt this...

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by unit1884

869 games (22.78%) did not go to OT.

I HIGHLY doubt this...

Why, what does your historical data set say on the matter? If you have evidence to the contrary then by all means please post.

Or is this simply one man's opinion based on no data whatsoever?

Anyway just to reiterate my earlier post:

Of the 3,814 NHL games from the 2005/6 season through Nov. 4 of the 2008/9 season with a clear ML favorite 869 games (22.78%) did not go to OT.

EDIT: No, it was actually my error. Thanks to unit1884 for identifying it.

[unit1884]

Ganch, your data says that 22% of games DO NOT go into OT, I think you mean "GO INTO OT"

[JsmooveFTW]

That's why I like to play -1 lines. I rarely get a push, and the extra winnings certainly outweigh what I would have won on the somewhat uncommon 1 point victories.

[unit1884]

Hey ganch, I have a thread in the NHL section about 1 goal games and a betting scheme, could you take a look at my math and make sure I got everything right?

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by unit1884

Ganch, your data says that 22% of games DO NOT go into OT, I think you mean "GO INTO OT"

YOu see there I go again ... all foaming at the mouth when I think someone's calling my data analysis into question, when of course had I actually carefully read your post or carefully reread my own I would have seen the clear typographical error.

Anyway thanks for pointing it out and my apologies for my earlier curtness. You are of course 100% correct.

I'll edit the above post to correct the erroneous statement.

Thanks again.