[gavra]

Hello everybody,

I have a question, but somehow hard time finding an answer so I turned here for an advice.

Lets say we randomly pick a games, with odds on 1.90-2.20 on favorite (this being the only criteria).

I picked 103 games like this and 26 of them ended X-X (soccer matches, meaning draw was at HT and draw at FT)...

longest streak that X-X didnt occured was 8 games (9th game came X-X), and the longest streak that this occured in a row is 4 times... this happened during last 10 picks...

what is the probability of X-X not occuring more than 15 times?

picks are randomly taken, but 100 games is maybe too small sample to know what can occur in next 1000 games.

is there a way to calculate this, or not, cause maybe it is simply based on chance, luck or whatever.

I was taking good money by chasing X-X on progression, but I know that sometime that ugly losing streak can happen, so I just want to know if there is a way to calculate will it happen, in how big sample it will happen, and how many times can it happen in 1000 games sample...

The money I took I just kept at side... cause I know his has many bad sides (chasing on progression, similar to martingale, just less progressive)...

and now that I actually have it I want to save myself from losing it, so I'm asking this...

I would be thankfull if anyone can answer. I'm not so good at maths, my brother is... but he doesnt know ANYTHING about betting, odds, chances, so he couldnt be so helpful...

Thanks in advance,
gavra

[Art Vandeleigh]

You may want to play around with Ganch's streak calculator.

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx

[gavra]

Originally Posted by Art Vandeleigh

You may want to play around with Ganch's streak calculator.

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx

valuable tool, thanks...

seems like on 100 games probability is 50% of X-X not happening 15 times, on 500 games, 97%...

I hope I calculated well, I will play with it.


Thanks

Gavra