Fading the public - March madness

BigOrangeTitans · 03-22-2008, 01:51 AM

1st day results
3-4
friday results
W ky Win
MDBC LOSS
S Bama LOSS
American WIN
Boise LOSS
San Diego WIN
Austin Peay Loss
3-4 again today

Given that traditionally first round of the tourney is a time to load up on faves, not a bad start. Will be better suited after the weekend to put an analysis on this.

BigOrangeTitans · 03-23-2008, 01:43 AM

First round
6-8
Second round day 1
Mich St W(outright)
Marq W
Texas A&M W

3-0
Good day for this trend.
9-8 overall(52%)

I see ALOT more of the same tomorrow, heres whats on the watch list
SD +5.5
Davidson +4.5(definitely a play. PUblic % too high with more bets on this than any other game).
Arkansas (definitely a play.)
Miami
Oklahoma(definitely a play).

I am going out on a limb here, but i see at least 3 wins here. This is a make/break day for the trend I feel.

WestsidePete · 03-23-2008, 01:49 AM

BOT,

you mean with the spreads??

Ark +11
Davidson +4.5
Miami +6.5

I can see these covering ....

BigOrangeTitans · 03-23-2008, 01:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WestsidePete

BOT,

you mean with the spreads??

Ark +11
Davidson +4.5
Miami +6.5

I can see these covering ....

Yes with the points. Outright games i havent been able to put a number on(a lot more variables).
Not saying im playing all of them yet either, other than the couple i noted as being a definite play.
But i really see a 4-1 day at worst.

SexyMit · 03-23-2008, 08:47 AM

I had some thing like this for college football. All the money going one way right before game time and the line moving in the opposite direction. It would only be a night where there was one game not multiple games. I don't have the exact percentage of win to loss but I know that I made some serious cash off of them. I will be watching these games if you could before game time please put up the ones that you think will work. I also noticed alot of money on PITT last night and the line was not moving. I had MS ML also and they won.

Ganchrow · 03-23-2008, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigOrangeTitans

Only went back four years. Thats about 500 games.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigOrangeTitans

I could not get the public numbers of anything before 4 years, thus why its only at a 4 year sample.

I was wondering if you could possibly post your sample data here. I'd love to check it out.

SexyMit · 03-23-2008, 09:45 AM

Ganchrow... where can you find 2nd half lines on NBA games from mths back to see how many have covered? I know you are a stat freak and very well with them could you please help?

Ganchrow · 03-23-2008, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SexyMit

Ganchrow... where can you find 2nd half lines on NBA games from mths back to see how many have covered? I know you are a stat freak and very well with them could you please help?

You can get this data as a subscriber to the Don Best "Real-Time Odds" package.

BigOrangeTitans · 03-23-2008, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ganchrow

I was wondering if you could possibly post your sample data here. I'd love to check it out.

Ganch, after the games tonight I will post what i have left of my sample.

As for the games before tip, heres the late games following the trend:

Ark +11
Miss st +9.5
Oklahoma +7.5

Earlier plays were:
davidson +5(covered)
Miami +6.5(covered)

BigOrangeTitans · 03-23-2008, 04:02 PM

2-0 so far today
11-8 in the tournament.
I said today would be a big day for this trend, and it looks like i was correct.

BigOrangeTitans · 03-23-2008, 11:28 PM

Ark +11 Loss
Miss st +9.5 WIN
Oklahoma +7.5 Loss
3-2 today

12-10 (54.5%)

BigOrangeTitans · 03-27-2008, 02:21 AM

12-10 (54.5%)

Possible plays and welcome back to the tourney folks

Tennessee +3
W KY +12
WSU is tentative upon line movement.
UT looks like strongest plat ATM.

imgv94 · 03-27-2008, 02:58 AM

Curious to know if your planning on betting Davidson? Nice avi

BigOrangeTitans · 03-27-2008, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by imgv94

Curious to know if your planning on betting Davidson? Nice avi

IMGV,
Davidson fits this trend better than any other game.
But on the flipside, Wisc is 2-0 against this trend(beatingIllini and in beating Kansas St. Granted, they were within a few points of 4.5 which is the current davidson line, but clearly not as good as davidson...)
I liked wisky at first but if you look at the purdue games, in which they lost twice this year, purdue played much like davidson is playing now.

With davidson fitting this trend and the fact that they will use the same gameplan as purdue, I gotta go against the chalk.