http://forum.sbrforum.com/ Handicapping theories, betting systems, tips, tricks, odds and math en Tue, 21 May 2013 05:33:49 GMT vBulletin 60 http://forum.cloud.static-files.com/vb4/images/misc/rss.png http://forum.sbrforum.com/ http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2350960-looking-programmer-would-like-automate-my-model.html Wed, 15 May 2013 03:05:31 GMT Will either share picks or pay for a program. Last season my CBB model finished a little over 60% and almost every game I bet beat the closer. Did very well in NFL & CFB also.

Any positive feedback is appreciated.

MP ]]> Handicapper Think Tank MasterP10 http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2350960-looking-programmer-would-like-automate-my-model.html http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2350692-combining-ml-ats-betting-optimize-kelly-expected-br-growth.html Wed, 15 May 2013 00:11:26 GMT There's a few small sports (global rugby, both union and league) that I've been attacking this year, all exclusively ATS.


I'm starting to ponder whether I should get into money lines. In particular ML favorites. Using the SBR Kelly calculator, it shows me a 5% edge ATS vs a 5% edge on a say, an ML -300 favorite allows me to invest more in the play.


What's the catch here? If I can consistently identify edge, why should I not just take big ML faves and keep taking dogs at the spread in order to maximize my expected BR growth? ]]> Handicapper Think Tank brettd http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2350692-combining-ml-ats-betting-optimize-kelly-expected-br-growth.html http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2349994-new-sport-betting-where-start.html Tue, 14 May 2013 16:19:11 GMT Hey guys, a mate of mine and me decided to start with sportbetting, the problem so far is, that it seems really hard to get profitable and that we dont really know where to start. We already started to create a database for soccer ( thats the sport we want to start with) tho we dont really know... Hey guys,
a mate of mine and me decided to start with sportbetting, the problem so far is, that it seems really hard to get profitable and that we dont really know where to start. We already started to create a database for soccer ( thats the sport we want to start with) tho we dont really know what our next step shoud be. How do we get started to create a profitable model, what shoud be our first step ? Is there maybe someone interested in giving us some tips how to get on the right track.

Chears. ]]> Handicapper Think Tank dr.fred http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2349994-new-sport-betting-where-start.html http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2344698-pros.html Sun, 12 May 2013 05:20:51 GMT So i posted a thread in a different section. thought id try it here. i am looking for some potential pros or experienced cappers to teach me their ways of how to cap games. i am willing to pay and put in complete effort to be successful. i also ask that this d bag, ghenghis kahn, doesnt put a damn... So i posted a thread in a different section. thought id try it here. i am looking for some potential pros or experienced cappers to teach me their ways of how to cap games. i am willing to pay and put in complete effort to be successful. i also ask that this d bag, ghenghis kahn, doesnt put a damn comment on this forum. ]]> Handicapper Think Tank wizcodlifa http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2344698-pros.html http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2341674-clutch7.html Fri, 10 May 2013 16:38:01 GMT tease the dogs in the games tonight, they should be tight!:lock2::lock2::lock2::lock2::lock2::lock2::tongue0015::tongue0015::tongue0015: tease the dogs in the games tonight, they should be tight!:lock2::lock2::lock2::lock2::lock2 ::lock2::tongue0015::tongue0015::tongue0 015: ]]> Handicapper Think Tank theclutch7 http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2341674-clutch7.html http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2339456-bet-sizing.html Thu, 09 May 2013 13:30:20 GMT Is it better to Risk to win X or is it better to risk X every time. I do not know what the names of these 2 bet styles? Does this make no difference? My thoughts: It makes little difference in games where the odds do not change much such as NBA, NFL, etc Is it better to Risk to win X or is it better to risk X every time.

I do not know what the names of these 2 bet styles?

Does this make no difference?

My thoughts:

It makes little difference in games where the odds do not change much such as NBA, NFL, etc

I think it should make a difference in games where the odds vary considerably such as MLB and Soccer.

It is my theory that risking the necessary amount to win $X is superior because the worse the odds the more likely to win.

But as I am writing that it stopped making sense. :+clueless ]]> Handicapper Think Tank BOTSLAYER http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2339456-bet-sizing.html http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2333830-developing-system-handicapping.html Mon, 06 May 2013 20:23:24 GMT Hi all. I posted this question in the Newbie forum yesterday and haven't gotten alot of input. Although thank you to Statnerds for giving me a little direction. I understand it's a littler early for some to be focusing on football but I'm a junkie.

I'm a casual bettor for the most part. I usually come out ahead on the year but I am very much a feel bettor that also relies on statistical mismatches and situation plays. I play NFL, CFB, and CBB and win at a 52-53% clip normally with some good seasons and some not so good seasons. So basically, I win enough of the time to have the vig eat up most of my potential profits. I'm not necessarily looking to quit my job and cap full time but I don't mind putting in the work to be a better player.

What I'm looking for is some help getting me started in coming up with some type of procedure that uses the abundant amount of information on the internet and then apply that to a system to handicap my lines ahead of time as apposed to looking at my book's lines and doing my reactionary analysis from there. I'm not a math genius but I'm a computer tech and am certainly good with math and I'm not afraid of learning knew things. I just don't know where to start and I want to do this "the right way", if there is such a thing.

I'm seeing alot of information about yards per point for both teams and dividing that into the average yards allowed by the opposing teams. I've also seen some people talk about using strength of schedule, QB Rating, ... even yards per pass attempt ... and so on.

I understand noone is going to come in here and hand over the keys to a productive system they have spent years perfecting for free. So I don't expect that. I'm just looking for some advice on what stats and news are more important that others and maybe some other pointers on how to come up with an efficient process to get a somewhat accurate starting line and then I will use situational data and other information to determine if a particular line presents value.

Any input from some of the veterans to help this casual bettor become more of an intermediate capper and possibly a sharp at some point down the road would be greatly appreciated. Also, if anyone knows of a book that isn't complete garbage, I'd be interested in doing some reading up on the subject. Looking for literature on gambling at amazon.com is like walking through a cow pasture. Thanks again guys ... and good luck to all. ]]> Handicapper Think Tank mikmak http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2333830-developing-system-handicapping.html http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2333048-there-formula.html Mon, 06 May 2013 08:39:32 GMT If Team A scores 100 points on average against teams that allow 90 points on average, how much would you expect Team A to score against Team B who allows 110 points on average? My mind goes to a formula like this: 100/90=1.11x110=~122 points but that seems too simple to be correct. If Team A scores 100 points on average against teams that allow 90 points on average, how much would you expect Team A to score against Team B who allows 110 points on average?

My mind goes to a formula like this: 100/90=1.11x110=~122 points but that seems too simple to be correct. ]]> Handicapper Think Tank 1wq23re4 http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2333048-there-formula.html http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2332194-statistical-ratings-system-snooker-other-sports-future.html Sun, 05 May 2013 20:44:15 GMT I have been working with statistical ratings system for a while. I finally made a web interface to my snooker ratings (tennis ratings will follow soon). Now, I'm not much of a web developer so the website might appear a bit funky on some browsers. Any comments on the ratings will be appreciated.

I hope posting the link here is not considered spam, as the content is perfectly on-topic and probably of interest to many of the regulars here. ]]> Handicapper Think Tank HUY http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2332194-statistical-ratings-system-snooker-other-sports-future.html http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2331838-how-much-1-2-point-worth.html Sun, 05 May 2013 13:53:18 GMT I have heard that pro sportsbetters would bet a basketball game hard at -12, but not touch it at -11.5. How much is the 1/2 point worth? Some have said each half point is worth about 2%. Obviously there is a difference if it is a football game hovering around a line of 3 or 7. But are there... I have heard that pro sportsbetters would bet a basketball game hard at -12, but not touch it at -11.5. How much is the 1/2 point worth? Some have said each half point is worth about 2%. Obviously there is a difference if it is a football game hovering around a line of 3 or 7. But are there some rules as to what value we can place on the 1/2 point line move? ]]> Handicapper Think Tank Faceman14 http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2331838-how-much-1-2-point-worth.html http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2330758-finding-what-motivation-worth-nhl.html Sat, 04 May 2013 15:32:20 GMT Ok, so here my thinking. Every team in the playoffs is much more motivated than they would be in the regular season, no matter what the series line, game, or situation, each game "should" bring the highest motivation out of a team.

So here's the playoff stats (these years are only ones at my disposal):
08: H goals/gm = 2.79
A goals/gm = 2.55
Difference = .24

09: H goals/gm = 2.95
A goals/gm = 2.53
Difference = .42

10: H goals/gm = 2.94
A goals/gm = 3.02
Difference = -.08

11: H goals/gm = 2.77
A goals/gm = 2.72
Difference = .05

12: H goals/gm = 2.34
A goals/gm = 2.44
Difference = -.10

So, I wanted to see how these playoff teams fared in the regular season, but to remove the variance of the "bad or non-playoff teams", I found the same stats as above, but only when any of the 16 playoff teams played each other, from Feb 1 and on (teams at the end of the year are playing more like they would be in the playoffs)

So here's the regular season stats of the playoff teams vs each other (was about 130 gms/year):
08: H goals/gm = 2.72
A goals/gm = 2.28
Difference = .44

09: H goals/gm = 3.06
A goals/gm = 2.71
Difference = .35

10: H goals/gm = 2.99
A goals/gm = 2.74
Difference = .25

11: H goals/gm = 2.62
A goals/gm = 2.78
Difference = .16

12: H goals/gm = 2.86
A goals/gm = 2.40
Difference = .46

So, comparing the difference in goals scored in regular season vs playoffs:
08: difference in goals decreased from .44 to .24 = .20
09: difference in goals increased from .35 to .42 = -.07
10: difference in goals decreased from .25 to -.08 = .33
11: difference in goals decreased from -.16 to .05 = .21
12: difference in goals decreased from .46 to -.10 = .56

which avg = .25 and median = .21. So am I way off, or onto something? That from my calculations, that the addition of a motivated team in the NHL is worth about .25 goals? Obviously other factors would contribute up or down, but I "think" this is a start.

Thoughts? ]]> Handicapper Think Tank a4u2fear http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2330758-finding-what-motivation-worth-nhl.html http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2327640-can-middle-polish-middle-bet-ev-if-its-components-ev.html Thu, 02 May 2013 19:29:42 GMT My gut says yes, but I'm struggling to wrap my head around a concrete example. ]]> Handicapper Think Tank Blax0r http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2327640-can-middle-polish-middle-bet-ev-if-its-components-ev.html http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2327392-how-bad-does-line-have-considered-bad-line.html Thu, 02 May 2013 15:49:47 GMT I've always been under the assumption that "bad lines" are obvious mistakes like when a book lists a 3 point favorite as a 3 point dog. When I see something like this I usually inform the book of the mistake, and I never bet it. I've also been under the assumption that when a book has a line that's a point off from the consensus that it's an opinion, and I will sometimes bet these.

Yesterday I made two bets on what I thought were book opinions. They were both moneyline tennis bets, and according to the calculator in the think tank they were off by the equivalent of getting a 2 1/2 point NFL dog as a 3 1/2 point dog, or 10% in win percentage. Both bets were cancelled by the book, but only after the lines on my sides got significantly bet down at all books.

To me it seemed like the book was using the fact that they had the best price as a pretext for cancelling bets on the sharp side. That said, I've never been sure on just how off a line has to be for it to be worthy of cancellation. Where should the line be drawn? Were my bets valid?

EDIT: I tried to add a poll, but I ran out of time. All responses appreciated. ]]> Handicapper Think Tank Ian http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2327392-how-bad-does-line-have-considered-bad-line.html http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2321498-rsigley-you-there.html Sun, 28 Apr 2013 23:35:05 GMT rsigley i am trying to model bets for live betting to make derivatives and stuff so i can make money. you know just trying to grind it out to get out of the slums. please help me please share data for NFL and NCAAF which has pinnacle price and line, espn id for game, and time left in game..!@####... rsigley i am trying to model bets for live betting to make derivatives and stuff so i can make money. you know just trying to grind it out to get out of the slums. please help me please share data for NFL and NCAAF which has pinnacle price and line, espn id for game, and time left in game..!@#### :+clueless:lmao::duh::an_clap::an_clap:: yes::yes::an_dance::an_dance::an_dance:: cheers::cheers::cheers: ]]> Handicapper Think Tank 339955 http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2321498-rsigley-you-there.html http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2320396-calculating-draw-chance-soccer.html Sun, 28 Apr 2013 08:04:36 GMT Lets say a soccer team has x% chance of winning. How much chance is expected for a draw? Assume everything else average. Lets say a soccer team has x% chance of winning.
How much chance is expected for a draw?
Assume everything else average. ]]> Handicapper Think Tank bihon http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2320396-calculating-draw-chance-soccer.html http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2313632-historical-mlb-underdog-betting-records-money-line.html Wed, 24 Apr 2013 22:01:29 GMT Does anyone have or know where to find past records of MLB money line records? For example if you only bet underdogs would you be up or down for the season? Thanks. Does anyone have or know where to find past records of MLB money line records?
For example if you only bet underdogs would you be up or down for the season? Thanks. ]]> Handicapper Think Tank MikeyFingers http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2313632-historical-mlb-underdog-betting-records-money-line.html http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2313518-nba-vs-mlb.html Wed, 24 Apr 2013 20:26:54 GMT When it comes to predicting a winner within a matchup based on the teams’ raw skill, do you find that picking a spread in NBA is easier to decide than picking a moneyline in MLB? I find that when one team is “supposed” to win a matchup in MLB, the result often seems random. Whereas with NBA,... When it comes to predicting a winner within a matchup based on the teams’ raw skill, do you find that picking a spread in NBA is easier to decide than picking a moneyline in MLB?

I find that when one team is “supposed” to win a matchup in MLB, the result often seems random. Whereas with NBA, the team that is “supposed” to win a matchup mostly does. I figured this is because of the nature of each sport. A team in NBA tends to total 100+ points, while a team in MLB only tends to total 5+ points, so therefore NBA will have less surprising results.

I’ve seen a lot of users say that picking random underdogs in MLB is a bad idea. But I find that picking systematically in NBA is more useful than in MLB, at least from the perspective of comparing raw skill within matchups.

True/false? ]]> Handicapper Think Tank MONEYMUFFINS http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2313518-nba-vs-mlb.html