[SBRforum Staff]

American Idol: Betting the Final 4

By: Robyn & Bread | sbrforum.com

This season's American Idol is down to the last four contestants, but unlike the Final 4 during the recent March Madness, there aren't four No. 1 seeds remaining. Speaking of seeds, Jason 'Puff Daddy' Castro is the most likely candidate to get the boot when the numbers come in and are announced tonight. Stoning his way through a Marley tune was one thing, but forgetting Dylan lyrics will prove fatal.

With a large catalog of songs to choose from, this was sure to be the best week yet!

Wrong.

Ryan Seacrest, looking shinier than ever, dramatically announces, "Thisssss is American Idol!" And Jason Castro does a funky jig. Or maybe it was a weed tremor. Who knows.

Each contestant chose two songs and unlike last week, they were allowed to change their wardrobe in between performances. This is the moment for the American Idol stylists, makeup artists and hair experts to shine. I do wonder however, why they have been ignoring the fact that David Cook seems to be crawling out of bed right before his performances.

David Cook – Hungry Like the Wolf & Baba O’Riley

Bread: Most sites now have Cook's betting odds at around -150 as a decent favorite. Hopefully this pans out. This week’s performance didn't do anything great for his longevity, but it will definitely get him through to the next round.

David performed a song by Duran Duran. They're in the Rock and Roll HOF? Really?!

His second song was about a 'Teenage Wasteland,' which was a direct slam on David Archuleta's shrieking little girl fans.

Robyn: David’s first song did absolutely nothing for me. He actually looked a little creepy and predatory-like when he was singing the lyrics “hungry like the wolf” while scouring the audience for his lady fans. Uh, no thanks.

Thankfully, David redeemed himself with an excellent rendition of Baba O’Riley. I have a feeling that the house band really enjoys backing his performances. Oh, and let me take a minute to say that the best thing the producers have ever done was to remove the karaoke tracks and introduce Rickey Minor and the Band. In doing so, that added a whole new dimension to the show. But then had to go and allow Sanjaya to happen.

Anyway…it’s about time that one of the David’s fall in the bottom two. I would look for this to happen to David Cook this week. He will be safe, but his first performance may have put him in this position.

Randy said that his first performance was just OK but his second was great!

Paula said, "I think you are hungry like a wolf and you left me with a big appetite!" (WTF?)

Simon thought the first song was a little copycat, but liked the second song.


Syesha Mercado – Proud Mary & A Change Is Gonna' Come

Bread: Good lord Syesha! I always knew this girl was talented and hot, but not to these levels! I am now depressed because before Robyn I briefly dated this girl who wasn't half as hot as she thought she was. She lived in Sarasota, just like Syesha.

So close...yet so far.

For her first performance, she sang a song by Tina Turner and gyrated about the stage like Mick Jagger during the Super Bowl. But when Syesha does it, it doesn't make me feel sick inside. At all.

For her second performance, Syesha explained the song's importance of being written during a "very pivotal time in history for the civil rights movement." She then equated the song to this "very pivotal time in her life." I love me some Syesha, but I just don't know about comparing such serious social accomplishments to whether she stays or goes home on American Idol.

Then after her song, she started crying like crazy. When asked by Ryan what was wrong, she started explaining the civil rights movement thing again, and Ryan looked utterly confused. Before the show, Syesha was the favorite to be the next contestant eliminated. But that has changed drastically since then.

Robyn: First of all, Bread needs to calm down. And secondly, the girl he was talking about from Sarasota, he was dating both of us at the same time, until he got caught. What a sly dog.

I don’t care what anyone says, both of Syesha’s performances were excellent. I don’t know what has transpired over the last few weeks, but she isn’t even the same performer. It’s almost as if something finally clicked with her. She was up there dancing with Beetlejuice and moving about the stage like a seasoned professional. It’s about time!

With the influx of tears (and two solid performances), Syesha should be safe this week. Oh hey, I forgot to look. Was Syesha wearing shoes this week? If not, the secret to her improved performances has been revealed!

Randy said that for the third week in a row, Syesha showed up in the zone, but didn’t like the second song at all.

Paula said, “Woooooooooo, you look like a star!” and stood up and clapped like a seal after the second performance.

Simon thought her first song was a bad impersonation of Tina Turner. He agreed with Paula on the second song.


Jason Castro – I Shot the Sheriff & Mr. Tambourine Man

Bread: Jason started off with a Bob Marley song. The white Rasta savior does his best to embody his hero, but it is dreadful. I'm sure Bob was rolling a new one in his grave.

And then, pure TV magic. Castro decided to follow up Syesha's powerful civil rights movement song with a song by Bob Dylan. Castro calls Dylan the "starter of the folk rock movement." I'm thinking as far as movements go, Dylan's ranks right up there with The March on Prune Square.

Then out of nowhere, he forgot his words. A lot of them. And solidifying his position as the most apathetic contestant of all time, he replaced those words with elongated moans. MMMMM MMMMM MMMMMMMMMMM MMMM. It was the funniest thing I've seen in some time. The judges skewered him, but he just doesn’t care. He kept on grinning like he just won the POTtery. But at this point, he really weeds to go home.

Next to be eliminated
Odds Before the Show:
Syesha Mercado -125
Jason Castro +120

Odds After the Show:
Syesha Mercado +170
Jason Castro -800

That has to be the biggest jump in a spread within a 60-minute span ever. LOL.

Robyn: Oh Jason, Jason, Jason. When he announced that he was singing a Marley song, I knew that it was going to be a huge mistake. And it was. The song was hardly recognizable!

Jason’s second song wasn’t any better. When he forgot the lyrics, I swear he was singing ‘Manamanah’ (do doo do do do) from The Muppet Show.

Here is the youtube clip. Hilarious.


I think it’s time for Jason and his magical “draggin” to hit the road. Photo courtesy of Joey B, Photoshop extraordinaire.

Randy said that Jason wasn’t in the zone this week.

Paula said, “The song didn’t blow us away, but you blow ME away.”

Simon said, "Stand back, that was utterly atrocious. It was like a first round audition massacre. What were you thinking?" Jason replied, "I was thinking Bob Marley!" Bless his heart.

David Archuleta – Stand By Me & Love Me Tender

Bread: Blahhhh. Two more solid, yet completely boring performances for the Boy Wonder.

He sang Love Me Tender by Elvis. True story: I once sang that song at karaoke on a gambling boat during its cruise back to the mainland. I was wasted and sang terribly. But for that one shining moment, I was the American Idol of Crappy Gambling Cruise Boats.

Archuleta's odds to win it all are now around +120. He might be the best value bet right now, as Cooks odds continue to skyrocket up in the -300's. I hope some of you took my advice and grabbed Cook when he was around even money.

Robyn: David sounded great, as usual. I just don’t know how he is able to get away with singing ballads week after week. No contestant in the history of American Idol has been able to do this without ridicule from the judges.

I nearly snapped when he added Sean Kingston’s “beautiful girls” hook at the end of Stand By Me. All of Kingston’s songs have that effect on me. After the song finished, the girls in the audience went into some kind of feverish frenzy.

David’s second song was chosen because he, "wanted to sing a love song on the big stage." Gee, Daddy Dearest is doing an excellent job catering to David’s fan base. Off camera, I am certain that girls were fainting and clawing at their faces. Imagine their disdain when he pulls a Clay Aiken on them in a few years. Yep…I just went there.

After the amazing pimping from the judges, it is clear that David isn’t going anywhere this week.

Randy said that David brought the hot, mad vocals.

Paula said that it is clear that he is listening to the judges and making changes as the weeks go on.

Simon said that David couldn’t have whistled and sounded better than Jason. He also said that he didn’t just beat the competition of the night, he crushed it.

Robyn’s Bottom Two:
• David Cook
• Jason Castro (going home)

Bread’s Bottom Two: Jason and Jason

[BadNina]

So, Bread thinks that Jason might be in the bottom 2?

[Tchocky]

If Jason Castro is still on the show after today, then I am going to shoot my TV. His "Mr. Tambourine Man" was okay even though he forgot some of the lyrics. He destroyed "I Shot the Sheriff". Why is this guy still around? He should have been voted off weeks ago. He's this year's Sanjaya.

[Sportsgirl]

Here's why he's still around and will stay around:

Total posts for each at the Fox American idol forum:

David Archuleta - 181,054

Jason Castro - 243,926

David Cook - 180,566

Syesha Mercado - 8,318

By their posting, the people who do the dialing tell you who they are interested in and who they are not.

[BadNina]

Jason's studio versions of past songs are pretty good. I have downloaded a few from iTunes and burned them to a disc. They were better than I thought they would be and I have enjoyed him more so. But...yeah, last night he was even telling people to not vote. He wants to go home.

[Bread]

I love Jason Castro holler!

[picoman]

i think Jason Castro got talent. i love the song, who shot the sheriff...but i didn't shoot no deputy.

i hope Jason Castro wins it all...the other three are dime a dozen in hollywood.

[picoman]

[babaoriley]

My thoughts on last night's show are well documented in another thread below, but let me sum up my feelings:

Stop it, American Idol. Just stop it. I have a wife and daughter who both need to be able to count on me for support and love. I can't help them from prison.

[Nicky Santauro]

are you guys all nuts.. JASON CASTRO goes home tonight.. bank on it.. if there is any book out there that is taking this action, i will put 15% of my whole bankroll. it's 100% guaranteed. i know this show. i have never missed an episode in 7 yrs. whoever thinks jason is not leaving tonight should not be allowed to post about american idol anymore.. i bet you can't find me one book that will take this bet.. because books are not stupid.


this is so f-ckin guaranteed, it's not funny. bye bye jason. if jason does not get eliminated today, i will send everyone here in this thread 20 bucks.. and i am a man of my word.. up to a max of 10 posters. that's how sure i am.

[Robyn]

It's time for Jason to go home. I don't see them having an all male top three, either. Nobody likes a sausage fest.

[Tchocky]

I think the show will suffer irreparable damage if Jason Castro makes it the finals. The show has no credibility if it's just a popularity contest. If I was the producer of the show, then I would make sure Castro goes home tonight regardless of the votes.

[BadNina]

I agree its time for Jason to depart.

[picoman]

you guys has no taste. he is the most talented of the four.

[Nicky Santauro]

pico, i love the kid.. i love his voice, its so mellow.. i love his character. he seems like an ok kid.. very humble, doesn't have a big head (constantine maroulis).. but he f-cked up so badly last night, that the fans have no choice but to vote him off. he butchered both songs, he forgot the lyrics in the 1st song, and he seemed like he didn't care.

it's all over for jason. in less than 4 hrs he will be officially booted of AI..

[BadNina]

Pico, I am a Jason fan. But didn't you see him saying "Don't vote" when Ryan was giving his numbers? Unless he was making a political statement about the Democratic primaries yesterday, I think he is ready to go home.

[Stacocakes]

Vote off Jason. That chick was terrible last night

[RickySteve]

I'm the 8th poster in the thread. Go Jason!