[DOMINATER]

I am disappointed so far, the talent ,or lack of seems like it will be the first season with less interest .SIMON is really being a jerk more so than usual, his first name should be simple, and Ellen just doesn't have any experience, she means well , but does not have the technical knowledge.The talent is definately watered down. The blonde guy looks like the early favorite, and the other guy has a strong hard rock voice . As far as ladies the girl who sang Alicia keyes song is the early fav.

[THE HITMAN]

I dunno, I am losing interest early this season. This week's performances were weak and left me looking for a few standouts, much less winners. And, I'll miss Simon next year......what most of these contestants need most is his dose of reality. They all cry too much and think they are the best.
My early guess was a gal, but the guy that beats Kara's heart double time seems good.

[Mikail]

very dissapointing season thusfar. Gotta like the Casey James kid. He is definitely a contender. Ellen has done little to fill Paula's shoes. I heard that Howard Stern is a possible to replace Simon.

[Nomocino]

The girl who went last on wednesday has some pipes and shes a wierd cute

[DarkMage]

Michael Lynch (Big Mike) is my favorite this year. It is sad that only 3-4 of them can actually sing.

[blanda]

Stay with sports and news!

[GunShard]

I bet some money on American Idol on that Didi and Ashley singers.

You have to know the facts about this show before you bet.

1. Most viewers are teenage girls, choose the singers that would most likely for them to vote for.
2. Attractive singers that sexually attract males will lose.
3. Hispanic and Asian singers don't seem to do well.
4. Watch thier earlier auditions on Youtube, it gives you an insight on who is bad or good.

That Casey James and Crystal Bowersox look like good performers, but will they attract the teenage girls to vote? I doubt it.

[aad722]

Nice insight GunShard, agree with you on some points. Definitely teenage girls are important... but less and less so each year, and honestly, I don't think they were ever the most important category. (Old article but I doubt the trend has changed: http://www.realityblurred.com/realit..._young_viewers) Women are the main viewers though, that's true - but it's normally housewives and mothers in general. It's your average, every day woman, and the average age is around 40!

Spot on about Hispanic and Asian singers though. Should've put $1k on John Park going home this week even though the moneyline was awful... it was a guarantee to any Idol fan.

Casey James actually HAS the appeal to teenage girls though so if that category is so important, I think he's a clear favorite. And knowing that the actual average viewer is a 40 year old woman (a la Kara)... I think that makes Casey even more popular.

My pick: Katie Stevens.
Rounding out the top 5... Alex Lambert, Lee Dewyze, Crystal Bowersox and Aaron Kelly.

[Salamander]

Go Katie go! There is a Katie this year, right? It's my favorite name! If not I hope Alexander wins.

[mrmarket]

God help me I have to watch this with the family and this season is just awful so far. There are a few contestants that have talent but for some reason or another just can't perform. Ellen is just like a parrot and really adds nothing fresh to the show.

If Andrew Garcia can just sing like he did while auditioning in Hollywood this wouldn't be a close contest but so far he has failed massively. Barring that I think that Casey James or Katie Stevens will probably win it with Crystal Bowersox/Lee Dewyze finishing in 3 or 4. Wild Card is Andrew and it reminds me of David Cook situation where he started off rough but got it together to win.

Might be some value in Michael Lynch as Bodog has him at 40/1 to win. He has a sappy but appealing story with the family angle, can sing and his personality is good.

[Darrellp32]

I'm a guy and watch it with my wife and all I know is didi is hot!

[GunShard]

[quote=aad722;3454459]Nice insight GunShard, agree with you on some points. Definitely teenage girls are important... but less and less so each year, and honestly, I don't think they were ever the most important category. (Old article but I doubt the trend has changed: http://www.realityblurred.com/realit..._young_viewers) Women are the main viewers though, that's true - but it's normally housewives and mothers in general. It's your average, every day woman, and the average age is around 40! [quote]

Oh crap, I didn't know about younger female viewers are replaced with older female viewers.

Crystal Bowersox might win this on that theory, I should put some money on her.

[GunShard]

Nice insight GunShard, agree with you on some points. Definitely teenage girls are important... but less and less so each year, and honestly, I don't think they were ever the most important category. (Old article but I doubt the trend has changed: http://www.realityblurred.com/realit..._young_viewers) Women are the main viewers though, that's true - but it's normally housewives and mothers in general. It's your average, every day woman, and the average age is around 40!

Oh crap, I didn't know about younger female viewers are replaced with older female viewers.

Crystal Bowersox might win this on that theory, I should put some money on her.

[aad722]

Well, I am having more trouble predicting Idol this year than usual so who knows! I didn't really expect Lilly or Alex to go home at all... and I was even more shocked to see Paige stay!

I still say older female viewers are important though since none of the contestants who left this week would necessarily have been very popular with them (especially Toddrick haha).

[mrmarket]

I don't think bowersox will win this. She is talented but more of a throwback to 60's 70's female rock like joplin and i don't see people voting for that later on as it may be good but not relevant to today.

[WINGZ]

Crystal Bowersox has it hands down.....Mike Lynch very close second.....Come da Finale gimme my props!!!

[GunShard]

I'll just bet on Siobhan, she has the strongest voice and can appeal to the modern audience.

[mrmarket]

She gave a surprising performance tonight. Pretty polarizing to be honest but I didn't expect it to be that good. Tim Urban reggae fiasco = gone.

[Lincoln73]

whoever wins is going has to be acceptble to middle america, that is why Adam Lambert didn't win last year. Bowersox may be the most talented singer but i doubt she wins in the end.

[mrmarket]

Dyed redhead gone. Not that surprising. Was really expecting tim urban gone this week but meh.

[aad722]

No surprise there... Tim Urban gets votes because of his looks. Had the bottom 3 nailed this week but was too scared to bet since it was the first single elimination week. Hope it goes the same next week!

[morocca]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYXq7TM2dto

[andywend]

Nice insight GunShard, agree with you on some points. Definitely teenage girls are important... but less and less so each year, and honestly, I don't think they were ever the most important category

AAD722, teenage girls are by far and away the most important group when it comes to American Idol.

This group propelled Kris Allen to victory last year even though he was probably not in the top 5 in actual talent.

[aad722]

By no means did Kris Allen win because of teenage girls... they helped, yes, and that was what got him into the top 5, and perhaps I could even give you top 3 (but that's more of a stretch). But the winner has always, ALWAYS needed more than the teenage girl vote.

Kelly Clarkson... Justin Guarini arguably had at least some teenage girl vote
Ruben Studdard... Clay Aiken certainly had the teenage girl vote
Fantasia??? I don't think you can tell me she had the biggest percentage of teenage girls voting for her either.
Taylor Hicks?!?! Come on now, do you see a pattern?

Kris Allen may have made it to the top5-3 because of teenage girls (heck, I don't think you can find a season were there was not at least one person who clearly had that advantage in the top 5 or even top 3). But he beat Adam Lambert by having MASS APPEAL. It's called American Idol for a reason, and if you look back at ALL of the previous winners, you will see that your logic doesn't hold water. Kris Allen beat Adam Lambert because Adam would never, ever win enough of the Middle America votes... he's extremely flamboyant and just doesn't have the appeal to a lot of this country as other posters have already noted.

[GunShard]

If Middle America determines most of the votes. It's possible that Crystal Bowersox could win like Carrie Underwood, Taylor Hicks and Kris Allen because they have that appeal to middle america.

But if strong vocals wins American Idol, like Kelly Clarkson, Ruben and Fantasia. Then Siobhan Magnus could win.

Siobhan might be like Adam Lambert, her strange style and appearance are unorthodox. She could be effected.

I noticed contestants with a poker face or barely any personality will get eliminated, Daughtry didn't show that much personality ended in 4th, Bowersox is similiar, she doesn't show much either.

Also, if Katie were to win, she would be the youngest to win American Idol.

[ojs69]

all that have a chance chrystal chrystal and chrystal

[mrmarket]

tim urban gone next week with big stupid grin on his face. Him or high school boy nerd. Bowersox is front runner atm but the quality of the performances has gone up substantially. It should be interesting as we get deeper.

[beefcake]

Got lynche at 28-1 and dewyze at 50-1....No females please!!

[aad722]

And Katie finally had her moment. Glad she stuck around long enough.

[stephtop]

Where is a good place to wager on these type of things