[beefcake]

Believe it or not,there is good profit to be made on betting on movies,TV,and some of these off the wall bets that are sometimes offered by the books.

Since I dont see much in this sub-forum on it,I think since I'm a niche better alot of the time, and try to find value in anything,Ill start a thread on the subject and post some plays from time to time.IMO movies is where the best value lies.

First posted plays

From Bet Ed: Male to win Survivor(-155) 4.65 units to win 3 units.
Bet Ed:Natalie White to win survivor(+375) 2 units to win 7.5 units..

Maximum bet at bet ed is $100 on entertainment.

I follow survivor alot(Ive applied a few times) and consider myself pretty good on reading whats going on.The old foa foa tribe has taken control of this game and to think that someone from this tribe is not going to win survivor is just not happening.Which gives me Russel H,Mick and Jaison,also to hedge my bet Im taking the only female left from that tribe in Natalie White at +375,she was +800 a few weeks ago,but with these 2 bets still has value.
Of course I have been known to be wrong and I do have bets pending on memebers of Galu (that i made before joing this site)that dont have prayer of winning now.But no way in hell shambo and the little latino hottie monica are winning it,so this way you will get a profit no matter what.
If russell H and natalie make it to the final vote,he will have pissed off alot of members of the Galu tribe and I cant see him getting enough votes,which i would bet Natalie will win,if its Jaison/mick vs natalie,I can see mick/jaison taking it.

Male wins up 1 unit.
Natalie wins up 2.85 units..

[Reload]

Good to have this insight, beefcake. Entertainment bets can definitely be a lot more beatable than sports.

[beefcake]

natalie dropped to +175 at bet ed and male is now -175..the value is now kaput..
Good luck to us!

[beefcake]

Monica and Dave gone...Nice!!

[beefcake]

Shambo gone..We got a 100% cant lose 1 unit profit at worst..

Go nat!

[beefcake]

Avatar props are out on Intertops..and this is what im playing...

80-90 million 1.5 units to win 2.4 units...
over 90 million 1 unit to win 4 units..

[beefcake]

Snowstorm screws the total on Avatar....Possible 15-20 million lost from snow.Had it capped right but Mother Nature Had other ideas..

Natalie wins Survivor!!!

record YTD....1-3 +0.35 units..

[beefcake]

Dont much care for her music.But im going to cover the board with LADY GAGA..

Popularity is sky high and she got locked out of best new artist catagory,

Have a feeling shes going to win 1 of these 3...1 gets us some tidy profit..

Bets from bet ed..

.5 unit Album of the year(The Fame)..Lady GAGA +750..bet ed

.5 unit Song of the year(Poker Face)..LADY GAGA +550..bet ed.

.5 unit Record of the year(Poker Face) LADY GAGA +750..bet ed..



Golden Globes..

Sandra Bullock to win best actress in a drama(The Blindside)..+200(1 unit)..bet ed.

Movie has made a shit ton of money,could be bullocks best role,and the globes and academy love to give out awards to folks that have had a long and stable career and the timing is perfect.Bullock is in her prime and she is due.

The Hurt Locker...Already won some other critics awards and I cant pass up on this price... +350 to win best drama..(1 unit)..bet ed..

[beefcake]

Golden Globes Plays...

Best Drama ..The Hurt Locker...5 dimes....1 unit to win 5.8 units...
Winning alot of awards,this price is too good to pass up.

Best Director...James Cameron ..5 dimes..1 unit to win 4 units..
More of a homer Play on Avatar...its made so much dam $$

Best Actress Drama...Sandra Bullock 2 units to win 4.4 units..5 dimes..
Its Sandras time..this line is dropping EVERYWHERE,get it now,its only going to drop more later in the week.

Best Supporting Actress Drama...Anna Kendrick .5 units to win 3.4 units..5 dimes..
Up in the air is very beloved,she might steal this from Monique.

Best Comedy or Musical ...Nine 2.5 units to win 2 unit..bet ed..IMO the strongest play of the all of em..

Best Drama actor..Jeff Bridges ..1 unit to win 1.75 units...the greek..

Best Animated film...no value on UP..so going with the upset.I think Up is pixars weakest film since aa bugs life...so I smell a longshot..
.5 unit to win 2.1 units on the fantastic Mr fox..5 dimes..

[H-BOMB]

Sandra Bullock is getting the word of mouth which should get her the win

[squallsquall]

Nice thread! Keep it up.

[beefcake]

Well after doing some searching on the net it seems 500 days of summer is getting alot of love and with the golden globes history of upsets I think a .5 unit play on it to cover my butt is in order..

500 days of summer to win best comedy/musical... .5 unit to win 3.5 units...5 dimes

Also adding matt damon to win best actor in comedy or musical for the informant!
.5 unit to win 2 units...5 dimes

Im not betting this due to HUGE juice,but taking christoph Waltz is a gimmie but im not laying -600 to -900!!!

[beefcake]

WAY TO GO JAMES!!!
Fingers crossed on the rest!!

[beefcake]

Profitable night on the globes..

Updated record...5-10..+5.65 units..

Grammy futures pending..

[beefcake]

Adding in addition to Ga Ga on best album of the year...im taking...

Taylor Swift for fearless.. +140 2 units to win 2.8 units..Bet ed
From all the reports Im reading from the net and print media,its taylors to lose and at this price I have to take it,prices at -140- to -105 at other sites..

Also..To win Best new artist...Zac Brown Band.... .5 unit to win 2 units..Bookmaker.
A couple of sites and pundits have picked them...good value IMO...

Good Luck Everyone!

[podunk]

good luck

[beefcake]

winner with zac brown band.. !

[beefcake]

another good night..

YTD Record...7-13...+8.95 units..

[beefcake]

Gotta grab this now...

K.Bigelow...to win best director oscar at Academy Awards...-185..

3.9 units to win 2 units...Bet ed..

[beefcake]

Box office total play..

Dear john ..under 19 million at Intertops
1 unit to win 3.5 units..

Superbowl weekend with avatar factor combined with another chick flick in wide release(when in rome),makes this a value play.Box boxofficeguru and boxofficemojo are predicting under this number,so its worth a stab at this big of a price.

Good Luck!

[Johnny 55]

Nice thread Beefcake-

I have some info from an inside source (I know how lame this sounds) about the results of Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains, not stupid internet rumors, but verifiable hard evidence.

My question is what books have lines on Survivor.

[beefcake]

Johhny,yes you are right about that,and thats the reason that bet ed or anyone else is not offering H vs V odds this time,sucks cause I was about to lay the wood on some of the villians,you know who!!
Guess now I have to wait to may to lay the wood on IRONMAN 2 opening weekend..

Loser on dear john bet..I hate betting these props on intertops,nned to stay away,O/U's is the only way to go,problem is they are few and far between.

YTD 7-14 +7.95 units...

[beefcake]

Time to cover the board with the longshots from american idol...Ive done this in past years and had good success,dont ever believe the hype with the favs this early..

.5 unit on all below...hopefully a good hedge opp later on on 1 or 2 of these...lines from 5 dimes..
Michael Lynche +2800 Lacey Brown +3000 Paige Miles +3000 Alexander Lambert +3500 Lilly Scott +4000 Aaron Kelly +4500 Michelle Delamor +4600 Katelyn Epperly +5000 David Duke +5000 Lee Dewyze +5000 John Park +6000 Joe Munoz +6000

[beefcake]

After the BAFTA'S last night its time to put the bet in on the The Hurt Locker,line up to -115 at 5 dimes and worse on other sites..

2.30 units to win 2 units on the hurt locker to win best picture..

Call me crazy,but I dont think bridges and streep/bullock wil both win..might be worth it for a .5 units on the chick from an education and colin firth..
well see

[kisado]

Does beted even payout? They are a shady company. Back like 2 years ago, I had an associate who would exploit their tennis lines because they would keep 'em on the board. I wouldn't be surprised if they took your money if you lost betting those lines, and then not pay out had you won, citing "the lines were on the board after the match had begun".

[beefcake]

well ive never requested a payout so far,i havea good amount in there and sometime in the next few months i will be getting one.Ill let ya know..

[beefcake]

Well time to make a few more value plays on the oscars now that the dust has settled a bit and the favs have been bet up..
With all the HEAVY HEAVY favs there is going to be an upset thing is i just dont know which one,talk of christopher plummer making a run at bridges and even rumors of an upset of waltz and monique(which I cant see but you never know).But there is some value in these:

1 unit to win 1.75 units...field best original screenplay...5 dimes...
basterds is not a shoo in and the hurt locker has an excellent chance to win this.

1 unit to win 1.9 units...Meryl Streep to win best actress..5 dimes..
Bullock has been getting alot of love,but unlike bridges this race is wide open and their is the chance these 2 split votes and mulligan takes it..streep hasnt won this award in a while even though being nominated TONS,i think represents value.

0.5 units to win 5.5 units..Carey Mulligan to win best actress..5 dimes...Just to cover my other bet..Ya never know..

1.9 units to win 1 unit...A matter of loaf and dead...to win best animated short film..5 dimes..
Hey its Wallace and Gromit...nuff said there...

[aad722]

Awesome thread.

I'm so upset to hear about the Survivor: H vs. V leak! I thankfully don't know what this information is (so no spoiling please!) but I was really looking forward to placing a couple of wagers on Wednesday and then got busy and had to wait, but they were down the next time I checked. It seems like you say Villains would've been a good call though which sucks because I was leaning in that direction...

Any more Idol betting - like Male/Female to be Eliminated each week, beefcake? I'm going to start betting on that today, I think I've got it worked out pretty well so far.

Again, awesome thread... really happy to have found it!

[brumbies]

Hey beef,

do you think it is a good idea to just bet the field for the 6 major categories? I don't think all the favs are winning.

And I think its good value betting $100 each on Avatar(Picture) and James Cameron(Director), one of these two categories or even both will win. I don't believe Hurt Locker will sweep the picture and director categories. I just don't see how, after all both Avatar and Cameron sweep the golden globes & you expect them to go home empty handed at the Oscars?

Here's an interesting trend: Titanic(Cameron's last oscar-nominated film) sweep the Golden Globes in Directing and Picture, and they would go on to sweep the Oscars in the same categories too. Now we have Avatar, who also won Best Picture and Directing in the Globes. Will history repeat itself for Cameron? At plus odds for both categories, I really think its a good bet on Avatar for Best Picture and Cameron for Best Director. I really think Avatar will sweep the two major categories.

What do you think?

[beefcake]

I agree with you brumbies on the avatar angle.value is by far on cameron..+500 for director,I got a great price on bigelow,so im sticking with it..
The price on avatar for best pic has roller coasted,looks like late money on it now from the looks of the other sites.Taking the #1 Box Office flick at + money seems like value to me,but once again im already locked in on hurt locker

GL tonight!

[beefcake]

winner on original screenplay!!

Screw you tarantino!

[theplagy]

lol, i got robbed

[theplagy]

Hurt Locker leading Avatar 3 -1,

you think i have a chance? (Avatar more awards)

[beefcake]

locker will win that bet me thinks!