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81st Annual Academy Awards
I was 5 for 5 last year in the Top 5 categories:
1. Best Actor - Sean Penn +132
2. Best Actress - Kate Winslet -135
3. Best Director - Gus Van Sant +1619
4. Best Picture - Milk +1321
5. Best Supporting Actress - Penelope Cruz -168
I think "Slumdog Millionaire" is grossly overrated but I won't be surprised if it wins Best Picture and/or Best Director.
its tough for me to pick anything since i live in a city that doesnt get most of the limited screen movies. Slumdog just came in last week. i do plan on seeing the wrestler though
I already cleaned up with a clean sweep on the Golden Globes a few weeks ago. All the value is gone.
GL to you.
I'm giving two thumbs up to the flick I saw yesterday while the rest of the world was watching the Super Bowl. Ok, while all but the five of us in the theatre were watching the Super Bowl. Frost/Nixon was absolutely great. If you're the type who can't get into a movie without a lot of special effects, what I like to call the Oooh! Something shiny! crowd, don't go see it. If you are going expecting to see a lot of Watergate rehashed, don't go see it. If you like a solid storyline, great acting and directing, then do go see it if you haven't already.
Originally Posted by Willie Bee
I completely agree Mr. Bee, much better than I expected. Langella isn't exactly a dead on mimic of Nixon, but as the movie progressed I became more and more impressed with his performance. Sleeper possibilites for Best Picture, Best Actor (Langella) or Best Director (Opie Cunningham Howard) IMO.
Looks like OP got Kate Winslet at a good time. Much better lines available on Sean Penn now though. And Gus Van Sant has moved to +6500 at Pinnacle.
I will jump in with:
Mickey Rourke (Best Actor) -176
Kate Winslet (Best Actress) -249
David Fincher (Best Director) +807
Penelope Cruz (Supporting Actress) -172
SBR Founder Join Date: 7/21/2005
I kind of like this approach:
http://nymag.com/movies/features/54335/
Last edited by Dark Horse; 02-19-09 at 02:44 AM.
SBR Founder Join Date: 12/14/2005
Value with Taraji P. Henson
I would take 'Field v Hathaway' for best actress -1175
And put the winnings on Taraji P. Henson for best supporting actress +1100
Last edited by Dark Horse; 02-19-09 at 02:57 AM.
SBR Founder Join Date: 12/14/2005
I saw The Wrestler last night finally. My God what a performance by Rourke. Nobody is stealing this award from him. One of the best I've seen.
Yes perhaps. They discussed the advantage factor of being from a Best Picture nominated film but they didn't (in this case) talk about the factor of previous nominees who have been shut out so far, have their chances increase. That would be Cruz (although only one nom I believe).
Plus her previous Razzie nomination may work in her favor.
SBR Founder Join Date: 7/21/2005
This is pretty interesting betting stuff. How many times has an actor or movie outside of the favored two won an award? Looks like a lot of free fade money to me.
SBR Founder Join Date: 12/14/2005
That Nate Silver article may help explain the big moves over the last couple of days for Langella, Tomei, Hathaway (odds changes reflecting chances of winning down considerably) and Henson up.
Is this guy the Dr. Bob of non-sport events or something?
Not often at all. Alan Arkin was a significant dog for Supporting Actor for Little Miss Sunshine a few years back. But in general, the main Oscars have been a chalk-sniffers paradise.
For a long time, my biggest straight gambling win of all time - on anything - was Charlize Theron for Monster. She won all the pre-Oscar awards that year and everyone knew she would win and she opened at like -250 and went to -a billion. I layed down a bundle when the line came out - and didn't even bother to hedge when the line moved so far. And she won.
And I am one of the most cautious about chalk players around. But the Oscars are different (at least they have been. It should be pointed out that the historical sample size is not huge.)
But yep, I am laying some chalk again this year.
SBR Founder Join Date: 7/21/2005
And by the way, what's with Hugh Jackman hosting?
Hugh Jackman? WTF?
I understand having a comic. Makes perfect sense. I could maybe understand having a great actor who had won a few Oscars.
But Hugh Jackman? Like I'm sure he's got someone writing jokes for him and all that but where does anyone even get the idea of asking Hugh Jackman, nevermind having a bunch of people actually agree on it?
Hugh Jackman?
SBR Founder Join Date: 7/21/2005
I'll give you another huge dog that won, last year Tilda Swinton won Best Supporting Actress, she was more than 20-1 all throughout the time between nomination to the ceremony, I watched her number drift up at Matchbook to about 8-1 right before the award was announced. As Tony Reali would say - Inside Information!
Hugh Jackman is there for the ladies, no doubt.
Slumdog Millionaire will win Best Picture. I'm positive of it. If I had $9k lying around, I'd put it all on Slumdog.
i just threw 5 bucks on each of these.
Frank Langella +1000 B.Actor
Melissa Leo +2500 B. Actress , I know Kate Winslet will probably win, but i've read and heard that this Melissa lady's performance was great.
Frost/Nixon +2000 B.Pic , ain't seen it, but have heard it is great.
Ron Howard +2000 B. Dir., because of how much i have heard about Frost/Nixon being good, i see value in picking Howard, Langella, and the movie, if at least one wins, i turn a small profit.
Michael Shannon +1500, ain't seen the movie, but heard he was great in it, and i'm not so sure Heath will win, actors from big budget blockbusters and from comic book stories at that, don't get respect. Yes I know there is the whole sentimental thing about him passing away, but i like the value.
Viola Davis +450. again , ain't seen it, but have read and heard she was great, seen her on a few talk shows, so her reps much be pushing for her. Don't think Cruz gets it, small roll, not much screen time, plus Woody's movies haven't been the talk they were since the 70's and 80's.
as long as i hit one of the first 5, i'll turn a profit, even if all i hit is the last, i will only be out 7.50.
I like the chances of something from Frost/Nixon winning. My luck it will be editing or cinematography or Make-up or some odd category that no one gives a shit about.
Really? Hugh Jackman is handsome or something? I wouldn't have guessed. Just looks like some guy to me.
If I go really large on anything, it will be Penelope Cruz. She has actually dipped to -150 as of this moment.
SBR Founder Join Date: 7/21/2005
It was really great. If I didn't have money against her, I would love if she won. I have a soft spot for her going back to my love of her TV show Homicide which is one of the all-time greats.
But she probably has about as much chance as Richard Jenkins for Best Actor. None.
SBR Founder Join Date: 7/21/2005
Yes **...I have the ambiguous ability know good looking men, and Hugh Jackman is up there. Oh, and he's there to promote his upcoming Wolverine movie too lol.
I wish you guys were paying this much attn when the Globes were happening. I cashed good on those.
Hoping to go see The Reader tomorrow. Love Winslet.
Now that I think about it, Jackman was People's Sexiest man, wasn't he?
And I think my reaction was the same: Really? Hugh Jackman?
It's not even that I don't think he's handsome/sexy/whatever. It just surprises me that he is well-known enough. What are his big roles? Leopold from Kate and Leopold?
I guess the Wolverine thing goes further than I would have guessed.
Well good for him anyway. I hope he does a good job.
I want to bet large on Kate Winslet but I am just slightly thrown off by the fact that many people consider it to be a supporting role. But that didn't stop them from giving it to Nicole Kidman for The Hours a few years back. Plus Winslet has the "due" factor in spades.
SBR Founder Join Date: 7/21/2005
I'm biased with Winslet. I even have a full body pillow that I sleep with at night that I named Kate Winslet.
Don't judge me.
Oh, and Jackman's upcoming Wolverine movie, I'm predicting will be bigger box office-wise, than any Spider Mans or Iron Man. yup.
I had a chance to see a bunch of these movies, some thoughts.
Vicki Christina Barcelona is about as crappy a movie as you could possibly sit through, the only positive thing it has going is Scarlett Johansson's kick ass gorgeousness.
As for Penelope Cruz, her part was played as well as she could expect to play it, but it came about as easy as possible for her, playing a hot-blooded Spanish woman who's character speaks choppy English and breaks into fierce hyper-fast Spanish throughout the movie. I doubt the character was a real stretch for her.
Doubt. Why 4 Oscar noms from this movie is beyond me. Meryl Streep was convincing early in the movie, faded towards the end IMO. Viola Davis had about 5 minutes of face time in this movie. How that got her a Supporting Actress nom is very questionable. Also, she hasn't budged from about 5-1 odds since the nominations came out. Her presence as a nominee and odds are wacky. Amy Adams was sweet and adequate, but not a memorable performance for me though. Philip Seymore Hoffman has no chance against Ledger, but he was pretty good.
Kate Winslet. Saw both Revolutionary Road and The Reader. I don't think either of her characters smiled even once in either movie. Reader was a pretty average performance in my opinion. But she does have on screen charisma.
Seeing some Winslet and Tomei t&a was OK, not worth the price of the tickets alone, though.
Rourke, Penn, and Langella should share the Oscar. All 3 were kick butt performances. Even Pitt wasn't too bad.
Saw all 5 nominated movies. Sat attentively through all of them, they were all pretty good, but none of them were the type of movies I ever need to see again. If Slumdog wins, so be it, my preference was Frost/Nixon, but I don't expect many to share that opinion.
Best longshots - Langella, Hathaway
Strangest odds - Viola Davis consistently at 4 or 5-1
Least likely favorite to win - Cruz
Cruz gets under one's skin like John Leguizamo. Just hard to sit thru.
Good write-up Art.
Out of all of that, I think my first and foremost comment is, yeah, Marisa Tomei still has some pretty little hootables, that's for sure.
I agree with your thinking about Viola Davis however must point to the case of Judy Dench winning for about 5 minutes of face time in Shakespeare in Love. Although that had the additional factor of Dench being somewhat shafted the previous year, which isn't the case with Viola Davis.
Who knows?
A lot of your comments seem to be more about judging the value of the actual movies and performances rather than the psychology of the voters and the politics. At least so it seems to me. IMO the Oscars have a rather poor record of rewarding the actually deserving so I try not to let merit factor into my bets too much.
SBR Founder Join Date: 7/21/2005
So there's a letter containing a list circulating around the net which lists the supposed Academy Award "winners"
Slumdog Millionaire
Kate Winslet
Mickey Rourke
Amy Adams
Heath Ledger
The Academy insists the letter is a complete fraud, that no such letter could ever exist with the listed winners and the Academy president's signature. The Academy continues saying that all the votes have not been tabulated yet, and when they are that only 2 people in the world know who the winners are (neither of them are the Academy's president), and they work at the accounting firm that the Academy uses (Price Waterhouse, I think).
Nevertheless, this probably explains Amy Adams odds plunging the last day or so.
I think this link shows the story
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/play...45143&src=news
Last edited by Art Vandeleigh; 02-22-09 at 05:58 AM.
Saw The Reader yesterday. Almost fell asleep 4 times. The parts that were supposed to be moving, didn't really move me.
Maybe I'm just dead inside.
I have decided not to try any grand bets on this. I am letting my 4 wagers stand at 1 unit each. May god bless each and every one of them. I know everyone was waiting on the edge of their seats for this announcement so there it is.
Still seems wrong to me that Rocknrolla isn't nominated though.
My only other comment at this point, relating to my earlier questioning of Hugh Jackman as host. I had a date last night and at one point said to my lady-friend something like, "So Hugh Jackman is hosting the Oscars, eh?"
Her response: "Yeah, who is that?"
SBR Founder Join Date: 7/21/2005
That was actually a really good movie.
Well looking at the odds, there really is no point in betting anything today. I was looking at all the favorites just a few days ago and was going to lay some on Rourke at -150. He is currently at -1000.
The only favorite that isn't at an astronomical number is Cruz at -180. And Adams is at +100.Maybe the letter is true!
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