[imgv94]

-4.5



Anyone who has followed my plays knows that I've yet to risk more than 4 units on any one game this season but this one is good, REALLY GOOD. You know I'm going to give you guys a writeup when I do a big play.


7* BYU -4.5



These are two teams going into completely different directions. UCLA defeated BYU on Sept 8th but dont let the score fool you. The Bruins won despite being outgained by the Cougars, 435-236. Turnovers killed BYU and keep in mind that the game was in Pasadena.

BYU outgained UCLA almost 200yds in Pasadena WOW

Let's also keep in mind that UCLA had Khalil Bell at the time who was later injured for the season.

BYU has improved since that game winning it's last 10 games all by at least 5 points. BYU has won 21 out of their last 23 games.

Let's look at what these teams did last season in their respective bowls....


UCLA got killed by Florida State 44-27
BYU Killed Oregon 38-8

It's worth mentioning that BYU played in the Las Vegas Bowl last season and it seemed that the entire crowd was rooting for BYU

Here is a quote for the AP if you don't believe me

"Brigham Young quarterback John Beck stood on the podium above a throng of blue-clad fans so dense that the green field was barely visible"

Crowd will be for BYU here..


UCLA has an abysmal offense that won't be able to keep up with BYU and their 13th ranked passing offense led by Max Hall.

QB play is so important in College Football and UCLA simply doesn't have anyone good in that position. The three weeks off is not going to help cause the QBs aren't really that good to begin with.


Let's look at the rankings here for a sec.

Let's start with offense

OFF RUN:
UCLA: 62nd
BYU: 58th

OFF PASS:
UCLA: 99th
BYU: 13th WOW


Now let's look at defense:

DEF RUN:
UCLA: 25th
BYU: 9th

DEF PASS:
UCLA: 71st
BYU: 41st


Looks to me like BYU is better in every category..


UCLA has no coach and the team just wants the season to end. BYU on the other hand finds themselves in a position to win their second straight bowl game after not winning in bowl game since 1996.

I think it's safe to say motivational wise BYU should have the edge. Oh wait let's not forget that BYU lost to UCLA earlier this season.
Can we say REVENGE?


Throughout the years I've done very well on BIG plays. I would be absolutely floored if BYU didn't win this game by DDs. I'm being 100% honest when I say this. It's hard for me not to bet more on this game but I worked hard to make 16 units in the regular season and would go crazy knowing I blew all the money made on one single play.

Hopefully nothing crazy happens here and BYU wins comfortably.


I'd enjoy some feedback on this game, I'd like to see what you guys think of this one..


Thanks for reading this thread and go BYU!!

[tblues2005]

I agree with you BYU could be lock of all the bowl games this year.

[imgv94]

I think it's going to take bad luck and 5 turnovers to lose this one tblues. Easy ones like this are hard to find.

GL bro.

[tblues2005]

Every year I find a bowl game that looks too obvious and I think this one is really obvious that BYU should cover this game unless they really mess up.

[imgv94]

Me too, there is always "ONE GAME" that is easy. Last season it was LSU vs Notre Dame.

I bet every dollar I could muster on that one. I seriously wagered blood money on it.

Will do my best not to wager money I can't afford.

Anything else you like tblues?

[Louisvillekid1]

GL with this one.

[BuddyBear]

I'd be somewhat careful.....UCLA is by far the more talented of the two teams and if their mindset is focused for this game they could easily win it. UCLA already played them this year and won are now catching points. I would consider reading the newspapers from each city to try to figure out how practices are going for both schools and the situation with Karl Dorrell is still unresolved that needs to be examined carefully I would think.

Good luck....

[imgv94]

UCLA igot outgained over 200yds in Pasadena. I had UCLA in that game and should of definitely lost. Max Hall was green he's a redshirt soph and made a few bad errors or BYU probably would of came out of there with a win. Max Hall is a lot more mature now then he was 3 months ago.

That game was in Pasadena and UCLA was a happy somewhat confident team at the time plus they had Bell who has been gone for the season.

Since that game these teams have gone in different directions. BYU is under the radar is a very solid team.

[BuddyBear]

No disagreement here that BYU is a very very good team. Probably the best non BCS school outside of Hawaii I believe.

However, you have to consider, now you are laying points with a MWC team against a Pac-10 team that is far more talented and on a neutral field no less. It's not like you are getting points anymore. True, BYU outgained them in the first game and probably could of or should of won but the fact is they didn't win which also should tell you something. Just like everyone was saying all week last week that Missouri should have beaten OU the first time around b/c they were leading in the 4th quarter. It does not work like that....

I just think this game deserves a little bit more consideration.....

[Louisvillekid1]

Only thing that scares me about this game, is that BYU does not put teams away. They do not blow out teams either. Worried this is going to be a low scoring game, in which one play could decide it. It's a no play for me, but GL

[prickbeater101]

gl imgv...

[imgv94]

Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1

Only thing that scares me about this game, is that BYU does not put teams away. They do not blow out teams either. Worried this is going to be a low scoring game, in which one play could decide it. It's a no play for me, but GL

I feel ya. But During their current 10 game winning streak BYU has won every game by at least five points.

[shrax4]

imgv, rolling with you here. I don't think UCLA is a very good team at all, they fell way below expectations.

[BuddyBear]

Originally Posted by imgv94

I feel ya. But During their current 10 game winning streak BYU has won every game by at least five points.

Okay, I am going to ask the obvious question then: If they've won 10 games in a row by 5 pts or more and they are favored to win this game how is it they only open up -4.5

This reminds me a lot of last year when I bit on the sucker line and took TXAM against CAL In the Holiday Bowl--a bowl game dominated by the dog no less. TXAM had lost 3 games all of last year. They lost to TTECH 27-31, to Oklahoma 16-17 and to Nebraska 27-28. Discrepencies of 4, 1, and 1. TXAM opened up +5 and I said to myself how can that possibly be...this team lost 3 games by a combined 6 points.

Predictably, they lost by 35.

[VolinArizona]

Nice, I've got 3 units on BYU (I've only had 1 play bigger this year, and have 2 other bowl games at 3u).

[imgv94]

[clonecat]

imgv,

What are the feelings around UCLA with Dorrell being axed as far as players are concerned, are they upset he is leaving?

[jackpot269]

imgv, as always thanks for your breakdown on game you and most everyone here does a great job, glad i found this site.Wasnt looking at this game before still may be a pass but im looking . Thanks again to you & all the regulars that post all this great info.Its great to see when someone else is on the other side & tell why they find value there.

[The Seer]

Originally Posted by clonecat

imgv,

What are the feelings around UCLA with Dorrell being axed as far as players are concerned, are they upset he is leaving?

Totally agree here. I think it all hinges on whether Dorrell decides to coach them in the bowl game. If he does, I would run. That kind of emotion can steam roll another team.

[hhsilver]

I was just looking at matchbook where the $3 guy has made just about the only offers on both sides of every bowl game. The only large offer , when I looked , was someone wanting BYU at -4.5.

That's either you, IMGV, or someone who agrees strongly with you.

[imgv94]

Originally Posted by clonecat

imgv,

What are the feelings around UCLA with Dorrell being axed as far as players are concerned, are they upset he is leaving?

Just found out that Dorrell decided not to coach the last game. It's likely that Walker will be coaching.

Some people think it makes a difference, I don't at all. BYU is simply just a much better squad and underrated to boot.

[imgv94]

Originally Posted by jackpot269

imgv, as always thanks for your breakdown on game you and most everyone here does a great job, glad i found this site.Wasnt looking at this game before still may be a pass but im looking . Thanks again to you & all the regulars that post all this great info.Its great to see when someone else is on the other side & tell why they find value there.

Thank you jackpot.. I'm glad I found this site too

[imgv94]

Originally Posted by hhsilver

I was just looking at matchbook where the $3 guy has made just about the only offers on both sides of every bowl game. The only large offer , when I looked , was someone wanting BYU at -4.5.

That's either you, IMGV, or someone who agrees strongly with you.

My bet is already made sir. I don't have much $$ left in my Matchbook account cause I made a withdrawl recently and have been hedging and losing with the Matchbook portion of the hedge/scalp.

[Willie Bee]

Originally Posted by imgv94

It's worth mentioning that BYU played in the Las Vegas Bowl last season and it seemed that the entire crowd was rooting for BYU

Brigham Young has always traveled pretty well. They all show up in town with a $20 bill and the Ten Commandments and won't break either one (rim shot).

[imgv94]

Originally Posted by Willie Bee

Brigham Young has always traveled pretty well. They all show up in town with a $20 bill and the Ten Commandments and won't break either one (rim shot).

Hilarious Willie..

[HAPPY BOY]

really wasn't gonna bet the game but u have raised an eye brow with thw write up. Will look at this game a little closer.

[manny24]

buddy bear's got me believing in the bruins. might gonna grab ucla for a small one. thanks boss.

[pokernut9999]

I agree 100% with this play.

[bradleysnyder]

i do like this play,buttttttttttttttttt lets not forget that last year was DOG CENTRAL for the bowl games.i think like 2 favs won?????something along those lines...............and im talking won as in moneyline,not spread

[imgv94]

Originally Posted by bradleysnyder

i do like this play,buttttttttttttttttt lets not forget that last year was DOG CENTRAL for the bowl games.i think like 2 favs won?????something along those lines...............and im talking won as in moneyline,not spread

Are you sure about that bro? Cause I remember something different.

[taurus]

imgv- did you get this early or did you buy some points?
I've only seen this game at 6.
I too was on UCLA in the earlier game and felt damn fortunate to win.
GL

[mark wahlberg]

im on this play not as strong as you cause ucla has good talent

[TimberG]

BYU threw the 1st game away! now....ucla doesnt have a coach or a fan base thats gona follow them to the game. I agree athleticaly ucla has an edge. however....Byu has 1 of the top young minds in coachin, an unbelievable fan base that will be in full force, the revenge factor to get them pumped for the game and never underestimate the recruiting advantage. nice pic! BYU 4 sho!

[bradleysnyder]

Originally Posted by imgv94

Are you sure about that bro? Cause I remember something different.

well,you want to know how sure i am.................i read an article in LAS VEGAS that said if you could have found someone to take such a parlay(meaning a 10 team)that a $10 bet would have yeild over $50,000 from the college bowl games of last year.i dont have the time to research that out right now,but i know it was insaneeeeeeeeeeee upsets last year...+300 and +400 upsets too,not bullshit +150's.....BIG UPSETS

[VegasDave]

Agree with you 100% as usual imgv... make me look like a follower. BYU rolls here.

ONE tiny thing to consider (though I don't suspect it will matter)... Las Vegas does tend to adopt Los Angeles teams, there is a big difference between a storied franchise like UCLA and a school like Oregon (who's fan base has been growing, but you get what I'm saying). I know plenty of Bruin fans that are excited to make the trip to Sin City and support the team... don't expect a home game here.