[BuddyBear]

Been a tough stretch lately. Get off to a good start, looks like a big weekend, then the teams I am backing in the evening fade. Can't win them all. As the season winds down there are just a few more opportunities for a big payout. This week I am going to make my biggest bet ever on a team. Little nervous because it is a bit out of character but last year made what was then my biggest play and it cashed easily (Louisville +1 against WVU) I may even add more but am very confident about the situation right now and expect them to win outright.


YTD 50-44

370 Michigan +4.5 & +4 (Biggest play ever, 15 units)
371 Miami (FL) +17
380 Washington State -2 & -3
388 Minnesota +14
397 UL-Monroe +25


Analysis upon request. Good luck to every this weekend!

[Louisvillekid1]

gl, what makes you so confident about michigan?

[Cougar Bait]

Yeah, I'd like to know also since I don't think they'll win the battle up front. They give up close to 60 yds. more on the ground per game than Ohio State. Also, Henne and Hart not 100% looks troubling. Interested to hear your side though and GL!

[bmac]

GL BB..... I hope Mich cashes for you. I won't be on it but I will be rooting for them.

[BuddyBear]

Thanks guys...

The way I see it:

1) Michigan has a very strong homefield (41-7 SU the last 8 years). They are almost never a home dog but when they are they've played very well going 3-1 ATS like the last 10 years or something. So Michigan seems to play well in this role. Compound that with several major revenge angles I think the situation becomes ever stronger to back Michigan.

2) 4 points is a lot of points. You look at the last 5 years of the series in the 4 games OSU has won, they won by 5, 16, 4, and 3. The implication here is that these games are relatively close. The 16 pt loss was something of an anomaly in this series and it was in Columbus. OSU's wins in Michigan have been by 4 and I don't have the score for '01 but it was a single digit game I believe. Maybe 8 or something like that....that was Tressel's first year and Michigan played pathetic that day and really were caught off guard. So I am counting on the fact that a close game, either way, helps me.

3) Teams that lose their first game of the season 10 games + into the season are major fades the following week. If there is one trend/system that is time-tested it is this one. If you played this from now till the rest of time you would be gold. A perfect example was Boston College and ASU last week both teams burned money for their backers. I am not saying it always wins, obviously it does not, but it is going to win you more than it is going to lose you.

4) I fully expected Henne and Hart to play. And if they do, they have a major advantage at the QB and RB position. Carr has been very conservative with these two. He did not play them vs. Minnesota nor against Wisconsin and they've basically played one game the last month (against MSU). They should be surprisingly rested for this game at this stage of the year. Hart was basically begging to play last week.

5) Michigan loss at UW was meaningless. Anyone who watched the game saw that Michigan could have cared less to play that game knowing it meant nothing and instead opted to rest their key players. On the other hand, OSU had their hands full with Illinois and lost outright, and badly at that. The Illini dominated that game and the score wasn't even as close at it made it seem. Even though both lost, the loss at home against Illinois was shocking. I have serious reservations about how OSU is going to respond off that loss. True a BCS berth is still at stake but they were playing for an undefeated season and a trip to the National Championship game...all out the window now. I feel their psyche is very fragile right now.

6) Seniors have never beat OSU. All things being equal, Michigan seniors still have a chance to fulfill many of thier goals. Yes losses to App state and Oregon made a national title game out of the question but they can still win a Big Ten title, beat OSU, and still win a BCS bowl game...3 things they have never done. I expect them to be very focused for this game.

7) Lloyd Carr's last game? Not sure, but this is a coach who is a good motivator and his players like him a ton. They've defended him all year and no doubt want to win this game for him as much as anyone else. I really think this speculation serves only to strengthen Michigan rather than serve as a distraction. I think the players rally around Carr and have a great performence.

8) Intangibles: Well, if Mich can't beat OSU this year they probably never will. The situation, i believe, is ripe for an upset. I just got a report last night from Ann Arbor that the atmosphere is electric and players are highly focused on winning this game. Being at home, with revenge, and having your senior class never have beaten OSU should motivate players enough to have a great performences. I am going to take my chances with Michigan this week.

I could be totally wrong, it won't be the first or last time, but this is the way I see this game playing out.

Good luck fellows....

[BravoWhiskey]

Good luck Buddy, you've got some stones. I just don't trust Michigan if Henne and Hart aren't 100%. I think Tressel just has Lloyd Carr's number.

[taurus]

Good luck with your play, Buddy.
I don't disagree with your selection, but I do quarrel with the potential impact on your bankroll.

[The Seer]

Buddy, we are thinking along the same lines on this game. I do believe that of the loses each team suffered last week, it was more damaging to Ohio State. Their national championship dreams just went down the drain again after being close 2 years in a row. Michigan's goals haven't changed since the 3rd game of the season. It's too hard for OSU to be let down so bad and then have to turn around and get back up for a game of this magnitude. Go Michigan!

[BuddyBear]

Thanks fellows. I know it's a lot of units but I am comfortable with doing it. It will be a shame if I lose but those are the risks you have to take when you bet on sports I feel Michigan should be very very competitive and should win this game outright.

Good luck to all.....

[austintx05]

I love it buddy, that UM train has been on its way for about 6 weeks now...good luck....

[pags11]

buddy,

you have some big brass balls and I respect that...don't you just love college football compared to college hoops (screw those end games!)...BOL to you tomorrow my friend...

[manny24]

i don't trust the wolverines either but going to pull for your cover 2morrow buddy. good luck boss!

[rjt721]

Completely agree with your assessment of the OSU/UM game. I'm not sure why many feel OSU is far superior to UM to the point that the Buckeyes being a 4-point road favorite is justified. Pretty ridiculous, really. Maybe Henne and Hart's status plays into the line being what it is, but make no mistake - both will play. Henne has some discomfort in his shoulder, but it doesn't affect his performance. He's played through the pain all year and has actually been at his best in recent weeks. Similarly, Hart will also start. His status being defined as "questionable" is absurd - he's playing. Hart was available to play last week, and if the game had any meaning he would have. People betting OSU primarily because of the injury status of Henne and Hart are making a mistake.

I think the efects of OSU losing last week are a bit overstated. While having their title national championship chances thwarted is disappointing, playing for the outright Big 11 title and a spot in the Rose Bowl, while at the same time preventing your bitter rival from achieving the same goal, is more than enough to play for. Had the Illinois loss come at any other time than the week preceding the UM game it likely would be a factor, but I fully anticipate OSU being ready to play.

The truth is, UM matches up well with OSU. While statistically OSU possesses one of the best defenses in the country, a similarly great Buckeyes' defense got torched for 39 points last year by a UM offense that returns virtually all key offensive members (only Breaston is gone). OSU lost much of its offense and Boeckman isn't the running threat of Troy Smith. Beanie Wells is very good, but without the playmakers all over the field last year's OSU team had, he will be the primary focus of a UM run defense that's shown steady improvement throughout the season.

Add in all the situational aspects - Henne, Hart, Long, Crable & co. last chance to beat OSU, the fact this game has been the one and only focus of the players from the second week of the season, and the near certainty that this is Lloyd Carr's last regular season game - something the players are fully aware of - and all signs point to an outright UM win.

I also agree with your Wazzou play.

Good luck this week BB.

[Willie Bee]

Best of luck this weekend, Buddy, especially with your Michigan plays over Ohowihateohio State

[imgv94]

I'll be rooting for you buddy. I kind of like OSU in this one but the line is too high.

Michigan is such a hard team to figure out and Tressel has something up his sleeve. 4 points isn't really that much when you think about it.

GL though

[louisvillekid]

don't agree or disagree with your plays, i just don't have a good feel about any of those, seems like a coin toss for most of them. i'm personally not on any of those games. but GL BB.