Dan,
I think Pitt's defensive numbers are a fraud. Shutting down Grambling and EMU means nothing, and while their performance at Michigan State looks good on paper, remember that it WAS vs. a Big Ten team.
Connecticut can run the ball, and I look for the Huskies to take time off the clock here. This line is inflated because of a combination of Pitt looking good at Mich St and U-Conn almost losing to Termple. I just think Connecticut took the Owls lightly though, and probably had at least one eye on this game.