[EBone]

Thoughts? Opinions? Do you care?


I've always thought that Bauer was pretty good coach down there. I've often wondered why some team has not come down to Hattiesburg and snatched this dude.

Personally, I think this is going to be a "no-play" for me but if I had to take a side and total, I'd go:

Southern Miss -16
OVER 49

I would anticipate some jitters out of Arkansas State with this being their first bowl and would think they'd have to play catch-up in the 2nd Half. I like the OVER better than the side because the So Miss defense leaves a lot to be desired. Arkansas State actually has a bit of a yards per game advantage but they certainly played a weaker schedule than Southern Miss did. But I think Bauer has proved that, in the past, he can get his team motivated to play even if it is a crappy bowl like the New Orleans-Lafayette bowl. I think he slapped North Texas around last year in this same bowl game. My 2 cents......


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[onlòóker]

Well Im not sure I will bet that game or not. But my work is holding a Bowl contest that they talked me into playing. In that I took the points, the sheet was printed when the line was at 17.5, and I like having the hook on 17 with Arkansas St. But I did rank it only 1 on my sheet, Im not completely sure on this game. So it wont hurt to bad if I lose it.

There are about 100 or so people in this contest and for $20, it could bring over $800 for first. The top 5 get paid and so does last. Plus Im using SBRforum.com for my name on the contest, so everyone that plays will see that and hopefully visit us here. $20 for advertisement I feel is a bargin, and if I win some money, thats them paying me to advertise.

[bigboydan]

i actually like Arkansas State +16 in this game myself.

[misteve]

Well, I think the play here is OVER 49
S. Miss will rack up the points, and Ark. St. will score enough on a soft S. Miss defense to add to the over.

[isetcap]

Misteve has me sold. How much do I owe you?

[EBone]

I'm kinda leaning toward this OVER as well. The defenses just look too weak here.


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[Razz]

The problem with over is that any Arkansas St. points should be the result of long drives. They have nice running backs, but they aren't going to be breaking big plays.

[misteve]

Arkansas backers are coming out of the woodwork today. I'm seeing some places just giving Arkansas 15 points now.
The o/u seems to be hovering between 49 and 50.
Will be interesting to see what happens the rest of the day.

If this keeps up, I think an OUTSTANDING play would be S. Miss. -7-5 ( or better) at the HALF. Wait and it might get better as Ark. support continues. I'd pound that if I were you.

[misteve]

Originally Posted by Razz

The problem with over is that any Arkansas St. points should be the result of long drives. They have nice running backs, but they aren't going to be breaking big plays.

I agree, Razz. Plus, the Ark offensive line is hurting, so I'm counting on S. Miss to put up major points tonight.

[misteve]

I'm waiting this one out and if I can get S. Miss. -14 or better, I'm all over it.
OVER is still my play for sure.

[Illusion]

That's good advertising looker, good luck in that contest.

[onlòóker]

Check the line movement out on the NO Bowl:

Stardust:

12/05 15:08 ET - So. Miss. -17.0
12/14 13:19 ET - So. Miss. -17.0 (49.5o/u)
12/20 12:04 ET - So. Miss. -16.0 (49.5o/u)
12/20 16:14 ET - So. Miss. -15.5 (49.5o/u)

Station Casinos:

12/05 16:33 ET - So. Miss. -17.5
12/07 10:05 ET - So. Miss. -17.0
12/10 18:32 ET - So. Miss. -17.0 (51o/u)
12/14 13:05 ET - So. Miss. -17.0 (50.5o/u)
12/14 19:04 ET - So. Miss. -17.0 (49o/u)
12/19 14:22 ET - So. Miss. -16.5 (49o/u)
12/19 20:09 ET - So. Miss. -16.5 (48.5o/u)
12/20 11:47 ET - So. Miss. -16.0 (48.5o/u)
12/20 13:02 ET - So. Miss. -15.5 (48.5o/u)
12/20 13:11 ET - So. Miss. -15.5 (49.5o/u)
12/20 13:29 ET - So. Miss. -15.5 (50o/u)
12/20 15:57 ET - So. Miss. -15.5 (50.5o/u)
12/20 17:24 ET - So. Miss. -15.0 (50.5o/u)

Pinnacle:

12/05 11:37 ET - So. Miss. XX XX
12/05 15:22 ET - So. Miss. -17 -102 (52o/u)
12/05 15:48 ET - So. Miss. -17 -109 (51o/u)
12/05 16:03 ET - So. Miss. -17 -112 (51o/u)
12/05 17:50 ET - So. Miss. -17 -110 (51o/u)
12/05 18:28 ET - So. Miss. -17 -108 (51o/u)
12/09 12:19 ET - So. Miss. -17 (51o/u)
12/12 18:49 ET - So. Miss. -17 -111 (51o/u)
12/14 11:02 ET - So. Miss. -17 -111 (50o/u)
12/14 12:33 ET - So. Miss. -17 -111 (49o/u)
12/15 13:17 ET - So. Miss. -17 -108 (49o/u)
12/17 10:53 ET - So. Miss. -17 +101 (49o/u)
12/19 18:46 ET - So. Miss. -17 +104 (49o/u)
12/19 19:23 ET - So. Miss. -15.5 -106 (49o/u)
12/19 19:38 ET - So. Miss. -16 +100 (49o/u)
12/20 09:52 ET - So. Miss. -16 +100 (48.5o/u)
12/20 10:17 ET - So. Miss. -16 +100 (49o/u)
12/20 11:35 ET - So. Miss. -16 -103 (49o/u)
12/20 11:52 ET - So. Miss. -16 +103 (49o/u)
12/20 12:04 ET - So. Miss. -15.5 -101 (49o/u)
12/20 14:34 ET - So. Miss. -15.5 +101 (49o/u)
12/20 15:54 ET - So. Miss. -15.5 -102 (49o/u)
12/20 16:59 ET - So. Miss. -15.5 (49o/u)
12/20 17:23 ET - So. Miss. -15.5 -107 (49o/u)
12/20 17:59 ET - So. Miss. -15.5 -106 (49o/u)

[EBone]

Onlooker,

According to SBRLines, Olympic, CRIS and Bet Jamaica all have So. Miss @ -14.5 -110. I guess it doesn't take an onslaught of money to move this line from 16 to 14.5 in one day but I'm holding out hope for -14. If I see that, I'm going on So. Miss.


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[onlòóker]

I think the value with Ark. St. is gone. Its starting to sway toward So.Miss. now. Maybe wait out and see if you can get 13.5.

[isetcap]

i think value left ark at 15.5 so if you want to be on the spread i wouldn't wait for the 14 to hit So Miss.

best value is still over 49

[renatus]

Originally Posted by isetcap

i think value left ark at 15.5 so if you want to be on the spread i wouldn't wait for the 14 to hit So Miss.

best value is still over 49

well they better start scoring points--

[misteve]

Originally Posted by isetcap

Misteve has me sold. How much do I owe you?

Well...let's see...how 'bout some Johnny Walker, Black Label...yeah, that will do!
Glad you tailed isetcap and hope you won some $$$$$

[misteve]

Originally Posted by misteve

Well, I think the play here is OVER 49
S. Miss will rack up the points, and Ark. St. will score enough on a soft S. Miss defense to add to the over.

Well I never said it wouldn't be close!! That safety sealed the deal.

[isetcap]

I was counting my money once the ball sailed over the punter's head. A toast goes out to misteve for producing the goods on this one. Tomorrow I'll try to take the lead and I am leaning towards the OU once again...

MISTEVE KEEPS HIS PEOPLE PAID!

Renatus, I know you were planning some dastardly post after the first quarter went scoreless. I've got my eye on you. Sneaky little monkey...

[EBone]

Officially, I did nothing on this game (total or side). I got spooked.


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