Aces.....I like Texas Tech as well and I especially like the over....for what it is worth, here's what Dr. Bob has to say about the game:
The offensive machine that is Texas Tech will continue to roll up yards and points despite the loss of the top two receivers and 4 starting linemen from last year’s squad. The Red Raiders return a starting quarterback for the first time since 2002 and Graham Harrell is more talented than the past quarterbacks that have run coach Mike Leach’s system. Harrell averaged 7.0 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback and his improvement will be negated somewhat by an inexperienced offensive line that is likely to allow more sacks than last year’s ultra-experienced front wall that allowed only 2.9% sacks. The rushing numbers - when the do decide to run the ball – probably won’t be quite as good either, but Tech always has a high average because teams just aren’t looking for the run. Overall, the Red Raiders were 1.3 yards per play better than average last season and they should be just as good this year despite the line. The Texas Tech defense returns just 5 starters and is particularly inexperienced up front, so expect that unit to be more forgiving this season after rating at 0.5 yppl better than average last season (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). Texas Tech probably won’t be quite as good as they were last season, but they’ll still be a good team that could creep into the top 25.
SMU has risen from the ashes in recent seasons, going from 0-12 in 2003, to 3-8, to 5-6, and to 6-6 last year. Mustangs’ fans will be happy to know that the evolution is continuing at least one more season. Quarterback Justin Willis came in as a freshman last season and played like a veteran in completing 67.4% of his passes for 26 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions and he’ll be even better in his sophomore season, especially given that he’ll likely have more time to throw behind a line with 4 returning starters. Willis didn’t take many chances, as he mostly threw short range passes, and his passing numbers were actually below average for the season because of all the sacks he took (28 sacks on 298 pass plays). Willis averaged 6.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback, but I expect Willis to be average this season in compensated yards per pass play given that he’s likely to improve and take less sacks. The rushing attack should also be better with a better line and with DeMyron Martin back healthy after struggling last year with injuries. Martin ran for 854 yards at 4.6 ypr as a freshman in 2005, but managed just 369 yards at 4.0 ypr last year. James Mapps looked good as his backup (4.7 ypr) and Cedrick Dorsey is not a bad option either if Martin can’t carry the load. SMU was 0.3 yards per rushing play worse than average last season, but that facet of the attack should also be average this year. SMU was average defensively last season, but they will probably slip a bit without star MLB Reggie Carrington, who quit the team during the summer. The defensive front is the weakness and the only returning starter on the line, Cory Muse (7 sacks last year), is doubtful for this game. The secondary looks better, but there won’t be much pass rush as long as Muse is out. One area where SMU is not average is in special teams, as kicker/punter Thomas Morstead is a star punter and not a bad place kicker. SMU should challenge in a weak Conference USA this season.
My ratings favor Texas Tech by only 8 ½ points in this game, which gives us no value playing either side.
Any thoughts on what he has to say? I think the over is a good play in this game....Texas Tech will air it out for a lot of points but did they lose to many starters from last year to shut down SMU from scoring a lot as well? Aprreciate your thoughts and GL on your picks
ACES Monday Picks 11-4 YTD $$$
Linear Mode
