notre dame vs GT - what's with the line movement?

maritime · 08-29-2007, 01:34 AM

I read in previous post from BuddyBear that line opened at ND - 9.

Now all the way down to -2.5 which is pretty significant movement away from a very public team. Obviously seems like "sharp" money on GT pushing the line.

I'm wondering why you guys think this line has moved so much? Could it be because Clausen had surgery & may not be ready yet? If it truly opened at -9, I can't say that I've ever seen movement against ND at home like this before. Thoughts?

BuddyBear · 08-29-2007, 03:21 AM

Well the -9 was the LVSC opening line. Not sure what it opened up offshore but i know not that high. Lot of people are betting on GT as more a play against Notre Dame. Outside of Florida, Notre Dame has the least number of returning starters. There QB situation does not appeared to be settled and at any rate, whoever they select, will have had no experience. Couple that with the drastic losses from an average defense last year and a young offense with no proven playmakers you can see why many are backing Georgia Tech.

GT features a very tenacious defense who return almost everyone if memory serves me correct. They also are breaking in a new QB Taylor Bennet but he did play in their bowl game last year and performed very well. In fact, many GT boosters have been critical this offseason of Chan Gailey for not having played Bennet more over a mediocre Reggie Ball. Remember, GT's strength has been their defense while their offense has been very average under Gailey.

There has been money showing the past few days on Notre Dame which to me is mostly likely sharps buying back trying to middle this game.

I have a slight lean toward ND simply because this is a very difficult situation for a new QB to be making his first start in and I expect ND to be very focused trying to win this game b/c they play Michigan and Penn State the following weeks which will undoubtedly be losses. But that's it....it's tough to make a case for ND on offense and their defense is inferior to that of GT.

Good luck Maritime.

LT Profits · 08-29-2007, 08:32 AM

Buddy Bear, since I love you, will you book my play on Georgia Tech +9?

But seriously, CRIS, Pinnacle and Greek ALL opened this game at Notre Dame -3, and I have never even seen a 3.5 anywhere! Just check out sbrlines.

seaborneq · 08-29-2007, 01:19 PM

The line has never been above 3. 9 was a misprint.

austintx05 · 08-29-2007, 01:36 PM

ND is the play

BuddyBear · 08-29-2007, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LT Profits

Buddy Bear, since I love you, will you book my play on Georgia Tech +9?

But seriously, CRIS, Pinnacle and Greek ALL opened this game at Notre Dame -3, and I have never even seen a 3.5 anywhere! Just check out sbrlines.

I am telling you guys it opened up ND -9 according to LVSC. Ask Pags.....also, I sent that radio link to Austin where they talk about this game being opened up at ND -9.

I'll bump up that thread in a second and you guys can hear it for yourselves....

ShamsWoof10 · 08-29-2007, 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by austintx05

ND is the play

ND f*ckin' blows that's why it moved down... I never believed lines makers (on most games) knows the better team from a hole in the ground and this is a clear example... they blew with Quinn and now they are really gonna suck... The most over rated team in the history of sports... I hate hearing about those suck as*es so much... GT is a lock here...

If ND doesn't play such as cup cake schedule the cover on the toilet seat would have been lifted and they would show how over rated they were... This year a less then strong schedule will not make any difference as they might go below .500 Charlie/Quinn's best game was a lose...

maritime · 08-29-2007, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShamsWoof10

ND f*ckin' blows that's why it moved down... I never believed lines makers (on most games) knows the better team from a hole in the ground and this is a clear example... they blew with Quinn and now they are really gonna suck... The most over rated team in the history of sports... I hate hearing about those suck as*es so much... GT is a lock here...

If ND doesn't play such as cup cake schedule the cover on the toilet seat would have been lifted and they would show how over rated they were... This year a less then strong schedule will not make any difference as they might go below .500 Charlie/Quinn's best game was a lose...

You, sir, clearly don't like ND, and quite honestly are missing the point of this thread. They very well may suck, as you say, this season. But what most of us are interested in is handicapping the game and making money if we decide to bet it. Leave your emotion "at the door." Also, your use of the work "lock" probably makes most of want to take ND, nothing's a lock.

This line did not move 6.5 points (crossing two significant numbers of 7 and 3) because "ND blows." ND is a very popular public team opening the season at home which makes movement like this very surprising and clearly signifies so called "sharp" action.

Thanks for you input BuddyBear. I'm still trying to figure this one out. It seems like there is some disagreement as to what the line started at. Did the line in LV come out a great deal earlier than the line offshore? Perhaps by the time it did, it had already moved, which explains why most, including myself, can't find it as starting at any higher than -3.

pags11 · 08-29-2007, 07:15 PM

Golden Nugget in Vegas opened it 9.5 in July...

Skankdog · 08-29-2007, 07:16 PM

The Under is the play here, I think it was 45.5
GT has a great defense returning this year.

maritime · 08-29-2007, 07:49 PM

Thanks pags, sounds like BB is right on, also confirmed by link to radio show he posted. I see line down to -2 now. There may be value in ND now. I can see the public betting this back up to 3 as gametime approaches.

pags11 · 08-29-2007, 08:37 PM

slight lean to ND for me, but again not playing this one...

Wheell · 08-30-2007, 12:08 AM

I am on GT outright, ND looks to be physically overmatched against GT's offense. I can't doubt Weis and his coaching skills but he has had little time to get whomever his starting qb is up to speed.

Razz · 08-30-2007, 12:18 AM

I really like Notre Dame in this situation from a technical standpoint. However, ND does have questions, and I think GT is more ready at this point in the season, so the Irish will be only a small play for me.

One thing about this game I keep hearing is that Georgia Tech gained a lot by losing Ball. Let's be honest, as good as Taylor Bennett may or may not be, he still couldn't win the starting job from Ball for two full seasons. And I'm actually expecting ND's defense to be markedly improved this season. Remember, as bad as ND's defense was last year, GT scored 10 points against them. At home. With Calvin Johnson.

Wassymac · 08-30-2007, 12:40 AM

I fully expected to play GT in this one closer to +7 but now that the rest of the free world is on them I added ND at -2.

pags11 · 08-30-2007, 02:14 AM

wassymac,

good to see you around here bud...

BuddyBear · 08-30-2007, 02:39 AM

Thanks fellows....i am glad I was able to get verification on the opening line for the GT/ND game. There is a lot of concern on both sides of the ball for ND this year with so many starters from last year's team gone.....even with an average defense like last year's team you still have experience.

Even so, I think this is one of those games where the situation may dictate the play. To me, the game presents a very difficut challenge for GT's rookie qb. You are asking a kid a lot to go into South Bend and pull a victory in his first career road start.

Slight lean toward ND...

Can't wait to watch this game though.....never been a big ND fan but I love the history and tradition and loyalty of Notre Dame football.