[nep1293]

I've been working on a system which I call "The Chart" that i will be using this year for both NFL and NCAA. I used it for most of last year and it had great results for me.

The system is based on opening lines and tendencies in those games. Example: in last years NFL games road teams who were receiving exactly 3 points were 23-6 ATS. I started playing those teams about halfway through the season and won a lot of games. I have data from the last 5 seasons with last years games each being worth 1.0 points, 2005 being worth 0.8, 2004 - 0.6, 2003 - 0.4, and 2002 - 0.2. After doing a lot of math I came up with the numbers I'll be using this year. The numbers will change slightly each week as I put in the newest games.

A few notes...
--The system takes a few weeks to really get going, probably based on the lines not being as accurate as the teams are different every year. It usually starts to pick up in weeks 4-5
--The system is designed to play a lot of games, if you pick and choose games your win % could vary. I like to put smaller amounts on 20 or so games so this works for me, it's probably not for everybody though.
--The system isn't designed to win every game, it is really designed to minimize losses and win over the long haul. Over the last 5 years, there were over 1500 recommended games for NCAA FB, the record of those games ATS was 887-639 for a winning percentage of 58.13%.
--The amount bet should be the same on every game, if the bet sizes vary the system wouldn't be as reliable.
----------------------------------------------------------
Any game with an asterisk (*) isn't as strong as the % indicates due to lack of data. Some games only have 10 games of data to work with so they aren't as reliable as games with 100 games of data behind them.

-No neutral site games will be picked

-Each 1/2 point the line moves, corresponds to 0.50%. If the line moves in the recommended teams favor add 0.50% and if it moves against it, move it down 0.50%.

-I don't recommend playing any of the teams that have a % lower than 55%.

[nep1293]

Here are the week 1 picks, lines are from this morning

Miami (OH) @ Ball St (-6) -------------58.07%
Buffalo (+32.5) @ Rutgers-------------60.91%
LSU (-18) @ Mississippi St-------------57.68%
Kent St (+3.5) @ Iowa St-------------61.58%
UNLV (-7) @ Utah St------------------52.99%
Utah @ Oregon St (-7) ---------------57.57%
Tulsa @ Louisiana-Monroe (+4)--------57.89%
Navy @ Temple (+21) ----------------55.38%
Washington @ Syracuse (+3) ---------50.85%
W Michigan @ West Virginia (-24) -----62.99%
East Carolina @ Virginia Tech (-24.5)--50.55%
Marshall (+18) @ Miami (FL)-----------55.91%
UAB @ Michigan St (-19.5) -----------52.06%
Connecticut (-4.5) @ Duke-----------62.32%
Virginia (-4.5) @ Wyoming------------51.37%
Nevada (+20.5) @ Nebraska----------58.41%
Mississippi @ Memphis (+2.5)---------52.28%
Houston @ Oregon (-14) -------------63.70%
Washington St @ Wisconsin (-14.5)---52.66%
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame (-2.5)----51.78%
UCLA (-16.5) @ Stanford-------------58.68%
Wake Forest @ Boston College (-6)---58.57%
Arizona @ BYU (-5)------------------53.48%***updated
Army @ Akron (-5) ------------------52.98%***updated
UCF (+9) @ NC St-------------------51.57%
Baylor @ TCU (-20.5)----------------59.39%
Oklahoma St @ Georgia (-6.5)--------52.91%
Central Michigan @ Kansas (-7.5)-----58.54%
Eastern Michigan @ Pittsburgh (-19.5)-59.89%
Purdue (-6.5) @ Toledo---------------54.85%
Kansas St @ Auburn (-13.5)----------55.88%
Bowling Green (+14.5) @ Minnesota---53.53%
Tennessee (+6) @ California----------50.85%
New Mexico @ UTEP (+3)------------53.38%
San Jose St (+14.5) @ Arizona St----54.03%
*Idaho (+45) @ USC-----------------61.87%
*Florida Int'l (+38) @ Penn St--------63.81%
Arkansas St @ Texas (-39)-----------59.86%
*North Texas (+40) @ Oklahoma------53.29%
La-Lafayette @ South Carolina (-30)--59.96%
Troy (+23.5) @ Arkansas-------------56.42%
MTSU @ Florida Atlantic (-2.5)--------51.16%
Texas Tech (-8.5) @ SMU------------50.71%
Florida St @ Clemson (+3.5)----------53.88%

[BuddyBear]

Very interesting, but can you explain your methodology a little bit more . I am a bit confused as to how you arrive at the percentages.

For instance a game I am interested in is Navy/Temple. I like Temple +21 in this game and have already played it. However, the line opened 21 and has stayed that way. So since there are no line moves in that game what is the basis of the percentage.

Thanks...

[nep1293]

The part about the line moves is for future line moves. So if the game went to 21.5 Temple would receive a boost to 55.88%, if it went down to 20.5 it would be 54.88%. It's not an exact science but it's helpful when the line moves a few points.

For the Temple game, I looked at all the lines of Home Team +21 for the last 5 years. I also look at Home Team +20 and Home Team +22 to make sure there are no wild fluctuations.
21 also includes 21.5, 20 includes 20.5 etc...

Home Team +21 has been 10-7 in the last 5 years for a winning percentage of 58.82%. In the weighted part of my system the record i'm using is 4.4-4.6 for a win % of 48.89%. Last year +21 was 0-2 so that made it a little lopsided. When the percentages between those 2 records are more than 2% off I add them together to get the final %. So Temple ended up with a record of 14.4-11.6 for the the final # of 55.38%. So basically if the game was played 100 times, Temple should cover 55 of them leading to a slight advantage and worth a play.


The worst this system has done was in 2003. The final record was 174-139, 55.59%. There is probably a 1 or 2 percent margin of error because I had to go back and dig up some of the old lines. Last year there was no margin of error and it went 180-138, 56.60%. NFL was fantastic last year, 169-88, 65.76%. I was going 9-5 almost every week

[pags11]

GL with this system nep...

[pokernut9999]

so you take your picks by a certain % number?

[nep1293]

Originally Posted by pags11

GL with this system nep...

Thanks

Originally Posted by pokernut9999

so you take your picks by a certain % number?

Yeah, the higher the % the safer the play according to the chart. I try to play the teams that are 57% and up. 55 % is really the lowest that I could go and still have them fit the system.

I'll still take a few games that don't fit, but I'm not going to take a team that is too much lower than 50%.

I've always been pretty good at picking games ever since I was a kid and last year, when I started using this, I was humbled by how much my knowledge didn't seem to work and how much this system did. I gradually started to trust it over the season when each week it would outperform me in picking winners. So this year I'm just going to let it rip and see what happens.

[pokernut9999]

Thanks a lot. Will these numbers you have change any before next week?

[BuddyBear]

So if I understand correctly then the mere fact that Temple is +21, without any line movement, means they will cover this number about 55.48% of the time?

[nep1293]

Originally Posted by pokernut9999

Thanks a lot. Will these numbers you have change any before next week?

The percents for those lines will be the same, when the line moves you can adjust the percents accordingly for the "push factor". I use 0.50% for every 1/2 point to make it a fairly simple process.

But do keep in mind that Week 1 has been historically less accurate than the entire season.

Originally Posted by BuddyBear

So if I understand correctly then the mere fact that Temple is +21, without any line movement, means they will cover this number about 55.48% of the time?

Yes, that is basically it. Certain opening lines seem to have tendencies that play out more than other lines.

Home teams that opened as a PICK have been 41-26 in the last 5 years. Home teams that open as 20-23 pt favorites have gone 99-70. I have every point broken down and just play the percentages. 3.5 and 7.5 have their own section but the rest of the 0.5 points go with their #. So 4.5 is the same as 4 for the purposes of the chart. I also have them broken down for Money Lines and 6 Pt Teasers.

[pokernut9999]

hope you post this every week, would like to follow. I am a firm believer in those stats.

Years ago 5 pt favorites historically were bad bets. You have a record last 5 years on that, would be curious if it still holds true.

[hhsilver]

Originally Posted by nep1293

-No neutral site games will be picked

-Each 1/2 point the line moves, corresponds to 0.50%. If the line moves in the recommended teams favor add 0.50% and if it moves against it, move it down 0.50%.

1. Iowa vs N Illinois is at a neutral site - you may want to remove this game.

2. Question: What "opening line" do you use and when do you get it?

3. In the chart you gave the %'s as of the current line. Let's look at one game. I think Tex Tech opened at 10 and is now 8.5. you give the % as 50.71. Am I correct that TX T at 10 started with a % of 49.21 because of the line move. Now, suppose TX T opened at 8.5. What % would your chart start with? I guess what I am asking is : does a team have a different % depending on a move to a number vs opening at that number and staying there?

[nep1293]

Originally Posted by pokernut9999

hope you post this every week, would like to follow. I am a firm believer in those stats.

Years ago 5 pt favorites historically were bad bets. You have a record last 5 years on that, would be curious if it still holds true.

I'll post these every week, I'm going to do NFL too. I am targeting 58% for the season, but I truly believe that in a worst case scenario I will break even.

I have Home team +5 as being a very solid bet, 59.39%... Road team +5 is 47.02 %.....and I actually found an error on my table in that section so I'll have to fix a few games.

Originally Posted by hhsilver

1. Iowa vs N Illinois is at a neutral site - you may want to remove this game.

2. Question: What "opening line" do you use and when do you get it?

3. In the chart you gave the %'s as of the current line. Let's look at one game. I think Tex Tech opened at 10 and is now 8.5. you give the % as 50.71. Am I correct that TX T at 10 started with a % of 49.21 because of the line move. Now, suppose TX T opened at 8.5. What % would your chart start with? I guess what I am asking is : does a team have a different % depending on a move to a number vs opening at that number and staying there?

1.Thanks for the heads up on the Iowa game, i'll remove it


2. I used the pinnacle line last year and will use that again this year, Last year I got it Sunday night. SBR Lines shows the opening line with the others so it is much easier now than it used to be. for a few of the previous years I had to hunt down the openers at a few casinos and a few offshore books and I did the best I could with them (which accounts for thhe slight margin of error for those years).

3. You have the Texas Tech/SMU game correct. I had the opener at SMU +9.5 and SMU was 50.29%, at 8.5 it becomes SMU 49.29% and Tech 50.71%.

If Tech opened at 8.5 it would be Tech 51.49% SMU 48.51%

[nep1293]

These are the official picks for today. For the purposes of the system I wll only post the plays that were at or above the 55% plateau and have enough historical data to qualify. I'll keep track of the W/L records all year.

Miami @ Ball St (-6)
Buffalo (+32) @ Rutgers
Tulsa @ Louisiana-Monroe (+3)
LSU (-17.5) @ Mississippi St
Kent (+3) @ Iowa St
Utah @ Oregon St (-6.5)

[pokernut9999]

I am going to follow, hope your system works LOL