[andybord]

I found an interesting Pac 10 totals trend that has netted me some decent coin the past 2 weeks.

In Pac 10 conference games when the total goes up by 1 or more pts from open to close (using 5 Dimes) , the over is 11-4. Not a staggering record by itself BUT, playing the under in all other situations (i.e. the total goes up by 0.5, stays the same, or goes down by any amount) has netted a 13-2 record. 24-6 combined isn't too bad.

I stumbled on this 2 weeks ago and it has gone 7-1 for me in the past 2 weeks. Should've been 8-0, but Washington and UCLA stopped scoring after halftime this week. Jerks.

Of course, now that I posted it here, it will go 1-4 next week.

[bobby heenan]

interesting...keep us updated...got any openening pac-10 totals???

[jds07v]

have you backtested this a previous year or two?

[andybord]

This trend doesn't apply in 2008. The over part went 5-4 while the under part went 19-16-1. May just be a flash in the pan but 30 games is a decent sample.

I find it interesting that last season, 36 of the 45 conference games fit into the "under" part of the scenario (total moves of +0.5, even or below). This season, 15 of the 30 fit this criteria.

[andybord]

As of right now, the plays under this trend would be:

Over (Any total moves up 1 or more pts on 5 dimes : 11-4 this year in Pac 10):
Stanford/USC
Az St/Oregon

Under (All Pac 10 games not fitting into over bucket: 13-2 this year)
Wash St/Ore St (this one has moved up a half pt, so it could end up in the over bucket by game time)
UCLA/Wash St
Az/Cal (this one has moved up a half pt also, so it could end up in the over bucket by game time)


All of these are subject to late total moves, but I'm thinking only the Arizona/Cal and Wash St/Ore St games are at risk of jumping.

I will update around 2:30 when the 1st 2 games go off.....GL all...

[andybord]

2:30 Plays:

Stanford/USC over 57.5 (5 dimes line moved up from 53.5 to 57.5)
Wash/Ore St under 57.5 (5 Dimes line moved up from 57 to 57.5)

Other 3 Pac 10 games to come.....