South Florida Bulls best of Big East in 2009
The Big East might be among the ruling class when it comes to college basketball, but it is sort of like the red-headed stepchild of NCAA football. The exodus of a few big schools five years ago is partly to blame; being shunned by the BCS doesn't help either. Looking to lead the conference on the gridiron this season, and possibly gain a little national recognition for the group. are Matt Grothe and the South Florida Bulls.
Welcome to the Big East – college football’s doormat.
The NCAA treats the Big East like dirt. There’s no specific tie-in with any of the four major BCS bowls. The No. 2 team in the conference goes on to play in either the Gator Bowl or the Sun Bowl – not the choicest cuts on the menu. And any of the six non-BCS bowls with Big East tie-ins can choose to invite Notre Dame instead.
Blame the 2004-05 exodus of Miami-Florida, Virginia Tech, and Boston College to the ACC, and the arrival of Louisville, USF, and Cincinnati from Conference USA. Blame the brain drain (Rich Rodriguez, Bobby Petrino) in coaching talent. Either way, the Big East only produced one profitable team last year: Rutgers at 7-4-1 ATS.
The money should start flowing in the other direction in 2009. Expectations are very low: Only West Virginia (8.5 wins) has an over/under bigger than eight for this season. That’s a red flag right there. The Sun Belt was the only conference last year that didn’t produce at least a nine-game winner. Somebody has to pick up a W when a Big East team faces a Big East team.
That doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be the Mountaineers getting the duke. Here’s my take on the Big East in 2009, in order of expected finish, including betting odds for the national championship.
1. University of South Florida Bulls (60-1): Of the Big East contenders, the Bulls are the only ones bringing back their big weapons: QB Matt Grothe (18 TDs passing, four TDs rushing, 14 INTs in 2008) and DE George Selvie (5.5 sacks, 43 tackles). The offensive line, however, is a collection of unproven talent that could sabotage USF’s title run.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers (60-1): Although the Mountaineers cannot truly replace QB Pat White, Jarrett Brown (five TDs, four INTs over three seasons of relief) has a good arm and knows the ropes in Morgantown. But West Virginia is also replacing four starters on the offensive line, just like the Bulls.
3. Pittsburgh Panthers (60-1): This is the best defensive team in the Big East and a strong value to go over 7.5 wins after reaching the Sun Bowl last year at 9-4 (6-7 ATS). Losing RB LeSean McCoy (1,488 yards rushing, 4.8 yards per carry) doesn’t help, but running back is a much easier position to fill than quarterback, and Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt is strong at recruiting.
4. Cincinnati Bearcats (125-1): Coach Brian Kelly was rumored to be on his way to fill the coaching vacancies in Tennessee and Washington, but chose to sign an extension with UC instead. He’ll lead the Bearcats on a title defense that will likely fall short, given the loss of 14 starters from last year’s 10-4 (6-7 ATS) team. But an over/under of six wins? That’s a little harsh.
5. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (60-1): This could turn out to be a very bad season for Rutgers. QB Mike Teel (25 TDs 13 INTs), WR Kenny Britt (87 catches) and WR Tiquan Underwood (40 catches) all need to be replaced. A soft non-con schedule with Howard, FIU, Texas Southern and Army might be all that keep the Knights in bowl contention.
6. Connecticut Huskies (150-1): The Huskies have a very good shot at leaping over Rutgers. They have an outstanding defense, and coach Randy Edsall is a master at finding hidden gems to join his program – because top recruits generally give Storrs a pass. Sophomore Jordan Todman should be able to fill much of the hole left by departed RB Donald Brown (2,083 yards, 5.7 yards per carry).
7. Louisville Cardinals (150-1): Louisville has cranked out some very good QBs over the years. But Hunter Cantwell (16 TDs, 16 INTs) is gone, and incumbent Matt Simms decided to transfer instead. The Cards have work to do just to match last year’s 5-7 (4-7 ATS) record.
8. Syracuse Orange (Field, 40-1): New head coach Doug Marrone is starting from scratch with this decimated program. Syracuse has a total of 3.5 wins on the board; only Washington State is in worse shape at three wins. The Orange don’t have a soft non-con schedule (beyond Maine on Sept. 26) to help them get over the hump.
South Florida Bulls best of Big East in 2009
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