[pags11]

Hello board,

Here are my plays for the week:

Wisconsin -6.5

Looking for Wisconsin to bounce back this week after their first half performance last week vs. Illinois. I do believe that Wisconsin was looking ahead to this week's game vs. Penn St., and you also have to give Illinois credit as a team that hasn't quit on the season. Wisconsin's defense is as underrated of a unit as there is in the country and I expect them to contain Penn St. RB Tony Hunt. This will mean they will try to have QB Anthony Morelli beat them. I'm not sure that he can. QB John Stocco continues to have a great season and it looks like RB P.J. Hill is a go this week. This should be a battle for about a half, but I see Wisconsin pulling away in the second half here.

Wake Forest +5

This battle is for the ACC Atlantic division lead and I expect a battle in this one. Wake Forest has quietly had themselves one hell of a season. They are led by QB Riley Skinner, who's as efficient of a QB as there is in the country. Wake Forest has really established a balance offense this year and they should be able to move the football this week vs. B.C. Jim Grobe vs. Tom O'Brien is an excellent coaching match-up, in fact, these two teams have been in some battles over the last couple years. QB Ryan should be a go this week but he will be facing a good Wake Forest defense. Both teams will have to play ball control and field position.

Maryland +17

This team continues to get no respect from the public, and maybe that's deserved. However, if they give Clemson a game this week, I think that perception may change. Ralph Friedgen has quietly put together a great season and has done as good as job coaching this year's team as any team he's had. I really like QB Sam Hollenbach and RB Ken Lattimore and Lance Ball. The key for them on offense will be how well their young WR's play. Defensively, Maryland will have their hands full with RB Spiller and Davis. The key is going to be trying to force QB Proctor into some bad decisions. I also think the special teams could play a role here, in favor of Maryland. Maryland will have to withstand a first half onslaught to cover, but I think they can.

Mississippi St. +15

MSU is another team that has really started to play better football, especially offensively. QB Henig has emerged as the QB Croom thought he'd be at the beginning of the season. After playing UGA tough, they took Kentucky to the wire last week. This is a team that hasn't given up yet on the season. They run into a Alabama team that has shown a propensity to play to the level of their competition. RB Darby still doesn't look right and QB Wilson is coming off an ankle injury and I quesiton how mobile he will be in this one. Throw in the fact that Shula's a pretty conservative coach, and I'll take my chances here with MSU.

Vandy +15

Where's the respect for this team? They are better than last year's Jay Cutler led squad. They play solid defense and are very well coached. Most people don't even know who Bobby Johnson is, but he may be as good of a coach as there is in the SEC. I've also really been impressed with QB Chris Nickson as well as WR Earl Bennett. This combo is explosive and should give the Florida defense fits all day. RB Cassen Jackson-Garrison is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and finds the end zone enough to keep the defense from pinning their ears back on Nickson. Florida's offense just doesn't seem to click right now and I'm thinking the Leak/ Tebow experiment could be backfiring right about now. Florida has also shown some holes defensively and seems to be a frequently penalized unit. I expect Vandy to give them a game here.

Tulane +6

Lester Ricard could possibly be the hottest QB in the country right now and I'm not sure anyone has really noticed. That's fine with me, because I've been cashing in on his success lately and plan on doing so again this week. Tulane also has senior RB Matt Forte who's rushed for over 100 in his last three games. Chris Schelfo is an outstanding young coach and seems to have his team prepared each week. If Tulane continues to win, they will soon become bowl eligible. Tulane has a lot to play for still (not to mention Ricard and Forte want to get picked up in the NFL). Tulane also matches up very well with Marshall here. They will have to key on RB Bradshaw for Marshall who's having himself a good year. This could be a shootout with the team who has the ball at the end of the game winning it.

UNC +28

Most people thought last week that UNC would give up on the season once coach John Bunting announced he would step down at the end of the season. Quite the contrary happened, they played their asses off against Wake Forest. This is a young team that has a lot of talent, and hasn't caught many breaks over the last two years with their scheduling. There is also a lot on the line with their players as they have many recruits that they want to come join them still, despite the fact that Bunting won't be back. Notre Dame definitely has the passing game rolling, but I do expect UNC to contain Darius Walker and the Notre Dame running game. The key offensively will be getting consistent QB play from either Cam Sexton or Joe Dailey (who both played very well last week). RB McGill should be good for 100 yards and a couple of TD's in this one and look for WR Jesse Holley to make some plays in the receiving game. This is UNC's bowl game for sure and I expect a good effort.

GLTA

pags11

[bigboydan]

I was liking the under 40 in that wake forest game myself. What do you think of that total in the UNC game pags?

[pags11]

not too sure on the total there dan...but GL with it...

[bigboydan]

I'm not even sure if i'm going to play that total bro. I just would like other peoples opinions on it was all, because it's one i'm strongly considering at this time.

[Razz]

I think that's a nice play dan.

Solid card as always bud. Loving some of those myself. Oh, and impeccable grammar.

[pags11]

thanks in regards to the plays and especially the grammar...I've got a real good guy that proof-reads my write-ups...

[Wassymac]

Always impressive write-ups. I always think I'm done with my card for the week only to add one or two more after reading your plays. It also feels good that I'm not against you on any of them.

Like yourself I played Wisky thinking that PSU will have to move the ball through the air for them to have a chance and I'm banking on Morelli not getting it done @ Camp Randall.

Even with ND finally covering last week I'm still in "Auto Fade ND" mode. A quick glance and you simply notice that they haven't beat anybody by 28. They just haven't been a team that puts lesser opponents away.

I like the two 2 TD+ SEC dogs as well. Bama's biggest W over an SEC team? 3 points. Besides a letdown against S. Carolina this Vandy team has been competitive every week (especially @ home).

I defer to Razz on anything Tulane related. He likes 'em...I play 'em.

You've enticed me into playing Maryland especially now that Dr. Bob has aided in getting them a couple more points. Looks like they've really just had one ugly 1st quarter against WVA but outside of that have been solid.

No play for me on Wake/BC although if I played it thats the side I'd be on.

Best of luck on the weekend

[bigboydan]

Pags, One last game I want to snag your thoughts on please bro.

Arkansas (-2.5) vs South Carolina?

I do see there is quite a bit of value withSouth Carolina in this game. Your thoughts please?

[kdmfox]

I hate to sound like a homie, but BC will be solid this weekend ... Unless of course, they aren't ... hehe

[Hoja Verdes]

As a Bama fan, I'm here to tell you Miss. State +14.5 is one of the best bets I've seen in a while. This game will be decided by no more than 10 points, and it could easily go either way.

[maritime]

Always like your writeups Pags. Have to disagree with you on ND/NC game. I've faded the irish most of the season but actually like them here. They definitely have had trouble covering their hyperinflated lines, and I think most bettors have caught on to this by now. However, I can't ignore the fact that NC's pass defense is miserable allowing opponents to complete 68% (5th worst in Div IA). I worry that Weis allows Brady to take advantage of this here to help his Heisman chances. And once NC is down by 2 scores is forced to pass more themselves which probably means less McGill touches and more mistakes by NC QB's (who have horrible TD:interception ratio). Good luck with the rest.

[goldengoat]

i like the maryland play

like the unc and wisc plays too

others i don't have any info on

[freeneasy]

maryland +17
last 3 games maryland and clemson has played i get
clemson 28.65
maryland 20.05
clemson -8.60

in all games played for each team i get
clemson 30.70
maryland 18.70
clemson -12

clemson seems to be showing a bit of a decline from all games played to last 3 games played

miss st +15
in all games played for alabama and miss st i get
alabama 23.70
miss st 18.35
alabama -5.35. well under -15

last 3 games alabama and miss st has played i get
alabama 27.90
miss st 15.80
alabama -12.10
looks like bama picked it up the last 3 games from -5.35 to -12.10. miss st might be declining a little to much to hold on to that 15 points

vandy +17
in all games fld and vandy has played i get
fld 27.95
vandy 14.45
fld -13.50

in last 3 games fld and vandy has played i get
fld 28.55
vandy 18.35
fld -10.20
vandy picked up their score from 14.45 to 18.35 in th last 3 games while fld picked up their score by .40. both teams show improvement with vandy showing the most. if things stay even then that could mean 7 good points for vandy

unc +25 1/2
in all games played by unc and notre dame i get
nd 33.15
unc 15.40
nd -17.75

in last 3 games played by each team i get
nd 31.20
unc 12
nd -19.20
both teams show a decline in their last 3 games played from all games played and even with both teams declining nd rises from -17.75 to -19.20. still under the spread for nd but i wouldnt be suprised if unc kept going downward and nd improves on that -19.20

[pags11]

guys thanks for all of your thoughts on the games tommorrow...I wish you all luck, even if your not with me on all of them...

[Tricky]

Way to go pags with that Maryland pick! I always put a little on their moneyline so tonight I'm going apesh*t with some of the winnings.

[Razz]

Nice going so far bud.

ROLL TIDE!!!

[Checkerboard]

pags 11, I really liked your Md play, but when I went to put it
down Friday it was at 20 so I waited till game time to see if I could get 3 td's and ended up distracted by chores around the
house and not getting it down. Classic! But, I did get Vandy,
so all is not a loss . . . GL the rest of the way this weekend!

[Illusion]

Originally Posted by Checkerboard

I waited till game time to see if I could get 3 td's and ended up distracted by chores around the
house and not getting it down. Classic!

It's happened to the best of us bud, but sometimes it goes your way. I got distracted once during the baseball season and by not placing my bet ended up saving me some good money because the bet would have lost, lol.

[BuddyBear]

only two more picks to get to 7-0....this could be one of those great days Pags that makes up for some of the past few weeks.

[Checkerboard]

Originally Posted by Illusion

It's happened to the best of us bud, but sometimes it goes your way. I got distracted once during the baseball season and by not placing my bet ended up saving me some good money because the bet would have lost, lol.

Thanks Illusion!

[Checkerboard]

Demon Deacons to go 8-1 ~ Lord willin' and the crick don't ris'! (great 3rd down conversion rate) . . .

[imgv94]

pags make Tulane wake up so you can get your sweep bud!!!

Nice Nice DAY!!! AWESOME JOB BUD!!

[SexyMit]

Looking good man, hope tulane wakes up and you will have the skunk. So how often do you win this many of your pics in a weekend?

[Doc JS]

helluva day, Pags.

Thanks for letting some of us come along for the ride!

Doc JS

[Jimmy The Greek]

You nailed them today!!!

[bigboydan]

Very nice day today Mr.Pags.

[pags11]

thanks a lot guys...I appreciate it...

[primo_skillz]

Very nice pags, keep it up bro!

[pags11]

thanks primo...