SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks Recommended Books
1. Pinnacle Sports SBR Rating A+ Pinnacle Sports Review
2. The Greek Sports Book SBR Rating A+ The Greek Review
3. BookMaker SBR Rating A+ BookMaker Review
4. BetJamaica SBR Rating A+ BetJamaica Review
5. Legends Sports SBR Rating A+ Legends Review
 
SBR Posters' Poll - September 2009 View Complete Results
1. 5Dimes 253 total points 5Dimes Review
2. Matchbook 252 total points Matchbook Review
3. BetJamaica 194 total points BetJamaica Review
4. Pinnacle Sports 193 total points Pinnacle Sports Review
5. BookMaker 190 total points BookMaker Review
 
 
View New Posts
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 10-07-06, 01:55 AM   #1
Ganchrow
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum.
 
Ganchrow's Avatar
Joined: 08-28-05
Posts: 4,784
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default Estimated NCAA Football ATS and Push Frequencies

For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.

<style> .ats { font-size: 11px; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; }</style><table border=0 cellpadding=2 cellspacing=1> <tr> <td class=ats>Spread</td> <td class=ats>N</td> <td class=ats>Freq.</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>0</td> <td class=ats>248</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>1</td> <td class=ats>657</td> <td class=ats>1.22%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>2</td> <td class=ats>801</td> <td class=ats>1.87%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>3</td> <td class=ats>989</td> <td class=ats>6.67%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>4</td> <td class=ats>1,038</td> <td class=ats>2.99%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>5</td> <td class=ats>1,108</td> <td class=ats>2.08%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>6</td> <td class=ats>1,015</td> <td class=ats>2.76%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>7</td> <td class=ats>955</td> <td class=ats>5.45%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>8</td> <td class=ats>960</td> <td class=ats>1.98%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>9</td> <td class=ats>870</td> <td class=ats>1.26%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>10</td> <td class=ats>693</td> <td class=ats>3.17%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>11</td> <td class=ats>668</td> <td class=ats>2.10%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>12</td> <td class=ats>684</td> <td class=ats>1.61%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>13</td> <td class=ats>624</td> <td class=ats>0.48%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>14</td> <td class=ats>585</td> <td class=ats>4.44%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>15</td> <td class=ats>995</td> <td class=ats>1.01%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>16</td> <td class=ats>957</td> <td class=ats>1.67%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>17</td> <td class=ats>912</td> <td class=ats>5.04%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>18</td> <td class=ats>837</td> <td class=ats>2.99%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>19</td> <td class=ats>736</td> <td class=ats>2.04%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>20</td> <td class=ats>713</td> <td class=ats>2.81%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>21</td> <td class=ats>684</td> <td class=ats>4.68%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>22</td> <td class=ats>624</td> <td class=ats>1.28%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>23</td> <td class=ats>575</td> <td class=ats>2.09%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>24</td> <td class=ats>568</td> <td class=ats>4.40%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>25</td> <td class=ats>515</td> <td class=ats>2.52%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>26</td> <td class=ats>453</td> <td class=ats>1.55%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>27</td> <td class=ats>422</td> <td class=ats>2.84%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>28</td> <td class=ats>389</td> <td class=ats>3.60%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>29</td> <td class=ats>337</td> <td class=ats>1.48%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>30</td> <td class=ats>306</td> <td class=ats>2.29%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>31</td> <td class=ats>281</td> <td class=ats>4.27%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>32</td> <td class=ats>240</td> <td class=ats>2.92%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>33</td> <td class=ats>207</td> <td class=ats>0.00%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>34</td> <td class=ats>180</td> <td class=ats>3.33%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>35</td> <td class=ats>156</td> <td class=ats>1.92%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>36</td> <td class=ats>128</td> <td class=ats>2.34%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>37</td> <td class=ats>112</td> <td class=ats>1.79%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>38</td> <td class=ats>97</td> <td class=ats>8.25%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>39</td> <td class=ats>76</td> <td class=ats>1.32%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>40</td> <td class=ats>64</td> <td class=ats>1.56%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>41</td> <td class=ats>56</td> <td class=ats>3.57%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats>42</td> <td class=ats>46</td> <td class=ats>2.17%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats></td> <td class=ats></td> <td class=ats></td> </tr></table><hr><span style="font-size: 11px;">Methodology:</span>
  • <span style="font-size: 11px;">All NCAA Football available regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from http://winningpoints.com/) with from the 2000 season through September 30<sup><u>th</u></sup> of the 2006 season were analyzed (4,054 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.</span>
  • <span style="font-size: 11px;">The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 4 points (2 points for spreads of 14 or less) of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 17 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 13 and 21.</span>
  • <span style="font-size: 11px;">This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.</span>
Quick reply to this message
Old 10-07-06, 03:16 AM   #2
Ganchrow
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum.
 
Ganchrow's Avatar
Joined: 08-28-05
Posts: 4,784
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default Estimated NCAA Football Over/Under Push Frequencies

For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.

<style> .ganch { font-size: 11px; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; }</style> <table border=0 cellpadding=2 cellspacing=1> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> Total </td> <td align=left class=ganch> &nbsp;&nbsp;N </td> <td align=left class=ganch> Std. Err. </td> <td align=left class=ganch> Freq.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 33 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 65 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.64% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 4.62%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 34 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 114 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.51% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.63%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 35 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 178 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.79% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.12%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 36 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 259 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.77% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.54%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 37 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 353 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.97% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.40%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 38 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 474 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.69% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.32%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 39 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 615 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.46% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.30%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 40 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 747 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.58% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.54%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 41 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 886 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.63% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.61%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 42 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,058 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.46% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.27%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 43 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,213 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.38% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.81%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 44 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,380 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.41% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.32%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 45 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,502 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.47% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.40%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 46 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,587 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.33% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.76%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 47 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,677 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.38% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.50%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 48 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,718 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.38% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.56%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 49 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,723 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.37% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.44%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 50 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,702 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.35% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.17%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 51 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,682 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.43% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.27%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 52 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,609 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.40% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.67%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 53 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,548 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.38% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.26%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 54 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,456 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.37% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.99%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 55 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,346 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.42% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.45%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 56 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,208 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.38% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.74%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 57 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,084 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.36% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.38%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 58 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 913 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.56% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.96%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 59 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 792 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.76% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 4.80%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 60 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 651 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.55% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.00%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 61 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 556 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.69% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.70%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 62 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 452 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.54% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.33%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 63 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 378 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.83% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.65%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 64 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 316 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.63% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.27%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 65 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 265 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.92% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.26%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 66 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 211 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.94% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.90%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 67 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 172 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.82% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.16%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 68 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 140 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.01% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.43%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 69 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 113 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.95% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 4.42%
</td> </tr> </table><hr><span style="font-size: 11px;">Methodology:</span>
  • <span style="font-size: 11px;">All NCAA Football available regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from http://www.covers.com/) from the 1990 season through the 2006 season were analyzed (4,924 games in total) for the frequency of various totals.</span>
  • <span style="font-size: 11px;">The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 3 points of the over/under in question ending with a total equal to that over/unders. For example, the push frequency of an over/under of 42 was determined from all games with a closing over/under between 39 and 45.</span>
  • <span style="font-size: 11px;">This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.</span>
Quick reply to this message
Old 10-07-06, 03:51 AM   #3
Dark Horse
Deus Ex Machina
 
Dark Horse's Avatar
Joined: 12-14-05
Posts: 9,638
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Great stuff, Ganch.

Just checking if 38 with a percentage of 8.25 is correct.

So, if I understand correctly, that means that of the 97 games within 4 pts of 38 (i.e. spreads 34-42), 8.25 percent ended on 38.
Quick reply to this message
Old 10-07-06, 04:12 AM   #4
darkghost
 
darkghost's Avatar
Joined: 09-19-05
Posts: 881
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

That is an unusually high percentage for such a high spread but then again the sample size is still too small.
Quick reply to this message
Old 10-07-06, 08:31 AM   #5
Ganchrow
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum.
 
Ganchrow's Avatar
Joined: 08-28-05
Posts: 4,784
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark Horse
Great stuff, Ganch.

Just checking if 38 with a percentage of 8.25 is correct.

So, if I understand correctly, that means that of the 97 games within 4 pts of 38 (i.e. spreads 34-42), 8.25 percent ended on 38.
Yes that is correct.

But just remember that the sample size for that spread is only 95.
Quick reply to this message
Old 10-13-06, 03:38 AM   #6
LVHerbie
 
LVHerbie's Avatar
Joined: 09-15-05
Posts: 2,008
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

How can you use this data to see the value of buying (or maybe selling, if one is using pinnacle) a half point or more at certain numbers? I'm assuming that this type of data is what sites use to decide what buying and selling of points is worth and I've also assumed that they obviously charge more (or pay less) then the true value... Thanks for good info ganchrow....
Quick reply to this message
Old 10-14-06, 01:07 AM   #7
Ganchrow
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum.
 
Ganchrow's Avatar
Joined: 08-28-05
Posts: 4,784
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by LVHerbie
How can use this data to see the value of buying (or maybe selling, if one is using pinnacle) a half point or more at certain numbers?
The results will be slightly different whether you're moving on to or off of an integer line.

Let's assume you're moving on to an integer line that occurs with probability p, and further assume that you're buying a half point, and that the theoretical hold on the unadorned line is given by H.

If the probability of the buy team winning the bet before the half point was purchased is given by b, then the win probability post-purchase would still be b, the push prob would be p, and the loss prob would be 1-p-b. Hence the relative win prob would be given by b/(1-p), and the fair decimal odds, figuring in a theoretical hold of H, would just be:

(1 - H) × (1 - p)
----------------&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(buying a half point on to an integer)
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbs p;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;b

And using similar logic, in the case of selling a half point on to an integer spread (relative win prob post-purchase of [b-p]/[1-p]), fair decimal odds would be given by:

(1 - H) × (1 -p)
----------------&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(selling a half point on to an integer)
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbs p;&nbsp;b - p

<hr>
Using a specific example:
Purdue -7½ -102
Northwestern +7½ -108
This implies a Purdue ATS win prob of 49.30%, a Northwestern ATS win probability of 50.70%, and a theoretical hold, H, of 2.36%.

So let's first consider buying a half point on Purdue (b=49.30%). From the chart above we see that the spread 7 has an associated probability, p, of 5.45%. Using the buy-on-to-an-integer-formula we find that fair decimal odds (assuming zero book profit other than the original hold) for the purchase of the half point should be: (1-2.36%)*(1-5.45%) / 49.30% ≈ 1.8726, corresponding to US-style odds of about -114.60. Pinnacle is offering the line at -117, implying (if you trust the predictive power of the push frequencies above) that it's charging a player an extra 0.93% worth of hold make the half point purchase.

In the case of the sale of a half point on Northwestern (b = 50.70%) fair decimal odds would be given by (1-2.36%)*(1-5.45%) / (50.70% - 5.45%) ≈ 2.0402, or US-style odds of +104.02. Compare this to Pinnacle's line of +103 on the offered half-point, and you see that you're giving up an extra 0.49% worth of hold to make the sale.
<hr>
Anyway, the logic is nearly identical in the case of buying or selling off of an integer spread and I leave the following as an exercise for the interested reader:

Assuming no change in theoretical hold, and taking the push probabilities above as given, what money line should be associated with a side of Fave -6½ given a market of:
NCAA FB Fave -7 -102
NCAA FB Dog +7 -108
Quick reply to this message
Old 01-04-07, 12:44 AM   #8
Ganchrow
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum.
 
Ganchrow's Avatar
Joined: 08-28-05
Posts: 4,784
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

A number of people have recently been asking me about how to calculate the fair price of buying or selling a half point when moving off an integer spread (the above post only illustrates how to perform the calculation when moving on to an integer spread.) So I thought I'd just fill in the two remaining buy and sell scenarios.

Let's assume you're moving off of an integer line that occurs with probability p, and further assume that you're buying a half point, and that the theoretical hold on the unadorned line is given by H.

If the relative probability of the buy team winning the bet before the half point was purchased is given by b then the absolute win probability<sup>*</sup> would be b x (1-p), and the win probability post-purchase would be b x (1-p) + p, the push prob would be 0, and the loss prob would be 1 - b x (1-p) + p. This means that the fair decimal odds, figuring in a theoretical hold of H, would just be:

<pre> (1 - H)<br>--------------- (buying a half point off an integer)<br> b x (1-p) + p</pre>

Similarly, in the case of selling a half point off of an integer, the win probability post-purchase would be b x (1-p) with a push prob of zero. This means that the fair decimal odds, figuring in a theoretical hold of H, would just be:

<pre> (1 - H)<br>--------------- (selling a half point off an integer)<br> b x (1-p)</pre>
(Note that if we were going to express these two formulas in terms of pre-purchase absolute win probability, b', then the two formulas above would simplify to (1-H) / (b'+p) for buying and (1-H) / b' for selling.)

So now we can answer the question from above:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ganchrow
Assuming no change in theoretical hold, and taking the push probabilities above as given, what money line should be associated with a side of Fave -6½ given a market of:
NCAA FB Fave -7 -102
NCAA FB Dog +7 -108
This is a case of buying a half point off an integer. Based on a market of -7 -102/+7 -108, then as in the previous post above the relative win prob of the favorite, b, would be 49.30% with a theoretical hold, H, of 2.36%. From the chart above we see that the spread 7 has an associated push probability, p, of 5.45%.

Hence, the fair decimal odds after buying a half point from -7 to -6½ would be (1-2.36%) / [49.30% x (1-5.45%) + 5.45%] ≈ 1.8754, or US-style odds of -114.23.

<hr><sup>*</sup>The relative probability of a bet winning refers to the percentage of non-push outcomes where the bet wins. The absolute probability of a bet winning refers to the percentage of all outcomes (including pushes) where the bet wins. (Hence, it should be apparent that in the case of a non-integer spread (where there's no probability of a push) the relative and absolute win probabilities will be equivalent.) This means that for any relative win prob b, and any push prob, p, the absolute win prob is given by b x (1-p).

To give an example:
Team A line +100
Team B line +100
Push Probability 20%

The relative win probability of both Teams A and B would then be 50% and the absolute win probability would be 50% (1-20%) = 40%. In other words, the probability of A winning, conditioned on A & B not pushing, is 50%, while the unconditional probability of A winning is 40%.
Quick reply to this message
Old 04-26-07, 10:19 AM   #9
cincy_1
 
cincy_1's Avatar
Joined: 01-10-06
Posts: 106
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

This is a GREAT thread. Thanks for posting it.
Quick reply to this message
Old 07-31-07, 08:37 PM   #10
linebacker
 
linebacker's Avatar
Joined: 10-24-06
Posts: 122
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

cool
Quick reply to this message
Old 10-02-07, 01:20 PM   #11
strictlywinners
 
strictlywinners's Avatar
Joined: 07-17-07
Posts: 3,247
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

i absolutely love this thread. Im am a math and probablilty junkie.
Quick reply to this message
Old 10-12-07, 01:13 AM   #12
idontlikerocks
 
idontlikerocks's Avatar
Joined: 10-09-07
Posts: 490
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

can u get a larger sample? perhaps from prior year scores.. and can u post the same information on half-time lines please?
Quick reply to this message
Old 10-12-07, 01:18 AM   #13
Ganchrow
Nolite te bastardes carborundorum.
 
Ganchrow's Avatar
Joined: 08-28-05
Posts: 4,784
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by idontlikerocks View Post
can u get a larger sample? perhaps from prior year scores.. and can u post the same information on half-time lines please?
My half-point calculator uses data going back to 1994.

As far as half-time data goes, that may be available in a future version depending upon data availability.
Quick reply to this message
Old 10-25-07, 08:05 AM   #14
louis
 
louis's Avatar
Joined: 09-23-06
Posts: 668
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

This is great stuff. I want to thank Ganchrow for this information. I wonder how much the frequency of the spread varies with the total. For example, with a lower total, taking a middle of the "3" becomes more valuable, especially near the end of the season when the lines are sharp.
Quick reply to this message
Old 05-01-08, 04:49 AM   #15
Debbie3
 
Debbie3's Avatar
Default

This is really great stuff. Love math and do enjoy this thread

___
http://www.kansascitychiefsfans.com/
Quick reply to this message
Old 09-01-08, 08:51 AM   #16
Richkas
Restricted User
 
Richkas's Avatar
Joined: 02-03-08
Posts: 12,406
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

This stuff only matters if your betting everygame.
Quick reply to this message
Old 09-03-08, 12:10 AM   #17
LINE-crush-ER
 
LINE-crush-ER's Avatar
Joined: 01-04-08
Posts: 853
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

I am with you ,
I am glad we have someone to do this for us .
when would have time to call in our bets
what I get out of ths is , the cappers are suppose to push every game ,
they dont , so this is how close they are to being physics , this is how close they are to being near
so basically guys someones going to win the game , just be on the right side
but still glad i dont have to do this

Last edited by LINE-crush-ER; 09-03-08 at 12:14 AM..
Quick reply to this message
Old 09-30-08, 01:26 AM   #18
clowncar
 
clowncar's Avatar
Joined: 09-25-08
Posts: 141
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

I have been sports betting for a long time and I also make my rounds at most of the handicapping sites on the internet.

This is one of the best threads that I have ever seen. The lazy will just disregard it but those interested in actually making money should take notice.

Truly appreciate this.....
Quick reply to this message
Old 10-17-08, 06:57 PM   #19
dabruinwarrior
 
dabruinwarrior's Avatar
Default Middling-when is it mathematically worth it

Hello,

This is the first time I'm posting. I had a question. For both NCAA and NFL, I am playing at a local book that fixes their lines from wed/thurs, however the vig is 20%. Sometimes there is 4.5 to 6.5 pts gaps on both o/u's and pointspreads(difference from a current line to the fixed line). For example, last week on one line I had North Texas at +22.5. On another I had North Texas+17.5 I was looking at the push chart for both NCAA and NFL on both O/U and sports and I was confused on the frequency percentage because the bottom notes that the percentage is taken from a range of 2 or 3 pts. I was wondering if anyone out there knew when it is mathematically feasible to middle between a fixed line with 20% vig and moving (current line like pinnacle) with a vig of 5%.

Thank you.
Quick reply to this message
Old 11-01-08, 09:14 PM   #20
notset
 
notset's Avatar
Default

Ganch thx for this theard, will be bookmark it...
Quick reply to this message
Old 08-27-09, 04:11 PM   #21
Perfect Haze
 
Perfect Haze's Avatar
Joined: 06-22-09
Posts: 69
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

I'll bookmark it too, thanks for the info
__________________
Soldiers still die no matter war was advised... Me
Quick reply to this message
Old 09-01-09, 10:54 AM   #22
BigdaddyQH
 
BigdaddyQH's Avatar
Joined: 07-13-09
Posts: 1,803
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dabruinwarrior View Post
Hello,

This is the first time I'm posting. I had a question. For both NCAA and NFL, I am playing at a local book that fixes their lines from wed/thurs, however the vig is 20%. Sometimes there is 4.5 to 6.5 pts gaps on both o/u's and pointspreads(difference from a current line to the fixed line). For example, last week on one line I had North Texas at +22.5. On another I had North Texas+17.5 I was looking at the push chart for both NCAA and NFL on both O/U and sports and I was confused on the frequency percentage because the bottom notes that the percentage is taken from a range of 2 or 3 pts. I was wondering if anyone out there knew when it is mathematically feasible to middle between a fixed line with 20% vig and moving (current line like pinnacle) with a vig of 5%.

Thank you.
If your book is "fixing" the lines, he is playing "lead" lines, which means he is wagering on the first lines that come out in Vegas. Those lines are not opened to the public. Then they set their lines. So not only are you paying an extra 10% vig (enough to cost you just about any chance of being profitable), you stand a 50% chance of getting a bad line. Sp he may get, say Alabama at -4 against Va. Tech. Now he sets his lines depending on who he took. If he took 'Bama and gave the 4, he will jack the line to 7, so he can get a 3 point break from his 'Bama players. If the Vegas line climbs,he can play a middle. Worst case senario, his players are paying an extra 10% just to wager the game.
Quick reply to this message
Old 09-01-09, 11:22 AM   #23
samhupman
 
samhupman's Avatar
Smile

Thanks for the info
Quick reply to this message
Old 09-03-09, 10:29 AM   #24
ankh4all2
 
ankh4all2's Avatar
Joined: 07-11-09
Posts: 121
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Ganch,
Is your half point calculator updated through the most recent seasons?

Thanks in advance!!
Quick reply to this message
Old 09-05-09, 10:42 AM   #25
dcbt
 
dcbt's Avatar
Joined: 04-04-08
Posts: 172
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

This is a really nice tool. I've never done a lot of college football betting, so to start doing so I've been collecting data this summer, and I sat down to run some calcs for half point values, but then thought, "This sounds familiar, I bet someone, probably Ganchrow, has done this already, no need to reinvent the wheel."
Quick reply to this message
Old 09-11-09, 07:38 AM   #26
patswin
 
patswin's Avatar
Joined: 09-05-06
Posts: 476
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Ganchrow any way to expand this tool for 3pts each way rather than the 2 currently?
Love it, use it every day
Quick reply to this message
Old 10-02-09, 12:26 AM   #27
RickySteve
A Doll's House
 
RickySteve's Avatar
Joined: 01-31-06
Posts: 2,454
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

Interesting formatting choice.
Quick reply to this message
Old 11-17-09, 12:46 AM   #28
TUDINH
 
TUDINH's Avatar
Joined: 10-31-08
Posts: 100
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

omg wat it is ...................................
Quick reply to this message
Old 11-19-09, 12:31 AM   #29
LINE-crush-ER
 
LINE-crush-ER's Avatar
Joined: 01-04-08
Posts: 853
 
Message Me
Challenge Me
Default

time tester
Quick reply to this message
 


SBR Featured Videos

Thread Tools
Display Modes



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:28 PM.


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33