[pags11]

Hello forum,

Just trying to keep it rolling this week as I'm starting to get a beat here on the season. I think it's important we really start paying attention to situational handicapping this week and that's what I've tried to focus on in many of my games this week.

Utah -6

Yeah, I know this line has gone up and I guess I like it up to 10. Bottom line, SDSU has no offense, I repeat no offense. I have watched every quarter of both games they've played this year. I thought the freshman Dougey would have done better with 2.5 weeks to prepare last week, but he could only throw a bomb or wide receiver screen. I think he will be facing a defense just as good if not better than Wisconsin's in Utah's. A glaring piece of info. I found out last week is that SDSU has lost 2 WR's, 2 TE's and 1 OL for the season, all of whom were starters in spring capmp. It's very tough to run a west coast offense without those guys. I know that Utah had a rough first game, but they seem to have gotten it rolling. I really like the way QB Ratliff has been playing for them. They are also very deep at RB, which will be key to wearing the SDSU down in the fourth quarter. Liking Utah, especially if you got -7 or less.

UConn +2

I know everyone seemed to like them last week, but I didn't get it. I thought they matched up pretty well with a solid Wake Forest team. This week, however, they get to play an Indiana team with some problems. Hardy, their best receiver (and probably one of the best receivers in the Big 10) has taken a leave of abscense from the team. Also, their coach, Hoeppner, just got done having brain surgery and won't join the team until Monday. Also, Indiana is fresh off a loss to I-AA Southern Illinois where they gave up a ton of rushing yards. That's good for UConn, because that's what they do well. Really like RB Terry Caulley (and yes he's healthy), as well as QB D.J. Hernandez (very mobile). UConn is also very well coached by Randy Edsall. Should be a good match-up here for the Huskies.

B.C. -7

Before all of you say this isn't the same B.C. defense of old, please take a look at their first three opponents. I think Clemson is a great team, BYU's a good team and even Central Michigan is underrated. Combine that with two overtime games and that can distort stats a lot. B.C. is catching an N.C. State team at just the right time. Chuck Amato is on the hot seat, and his team might be better served to play all road games at this point. One interesting stat from last week's game vs. Southern Miss is that Southern Miss didn't punt the entire game! B.C. has a good offense and is led by one of the more underrated coaches in the entire nation in Tom O'Brien. QB Ryan should make good decisions and they have two solid RB's to rely on as well. Really like Gonzalez as a receiving threat and look for KR Smith to make a big play on special teams. Bad spot for NCSU and B.C. will take advantage here.

Nebraska -21 (like it up to 24)

Yeah, that was bullshit that Bill Callahan called such a vanilla game vs. USC last week. I will tell you though, I was very impressed with Nebraska's athletes, especially on defense. Also was very impressed with QB Taylor, when he was allowed to throw. Do you know there have been only two teams to hold USC to less points at home under Pete Carroll's than Nebraska did last week? Bill Callahan has said he has two goals, to win the Big 12 North and win the Big 12 Championship. Troy is playing their third road game in a row this week, after playing Florida St. and Georgia Tech respectively. I think Nebraska is the best of these three teams by far and Callahan has shown to have the killer instinct vs. inferior opponents, especially at home. I don't see him letting up here and Troy has shown they really wear down in the fourth quarter. Look for the Huskers to run it up here.

Bowling Green -7

I know you think I'm crazy for laying points in the MAC. Here me out though, as I've got some good ammunition to back up my analysis. Bowling Green has won 20 of their last 24 home games by an average of over 20 points per game. They have one of the better home field advantages that most people don't know about. They had an off year last year and I still think people have them undervalued. They are playing a Kent St. team that is definitely better than last year, but that's not saying much. Kent has huge problems with their run defense and I have really been impressed with RB/QB Freddie Barnes. QB Anthony Turner has a hurt shoulder and may not play in this one, but I don't think it will matter as Barnes is very capable. If Kent gets down early, they are going to have some problems with only one legitamite receiving threat. I'm a believer that games are played at the tempo of the home team. In this case, Bowling Green is going to want to play a fast paced game and run up the points. I also think Bowling Green really found their offense last week vs. a scrapy FIU team. Laying the TD in this one with Bowling Green.

Wyoming PK

Here's another game I can't figure out. Wyoming has played very well this season, and could very well be 3-0, with tough losses at Virginia and to Boise St. last week. They did hold Boise to 132 yards rushing the entire game and didn't let them score a single point in the second half. I feel they match-up very well with Air Force here, as they have beat them 6 of the last 7 times these two teams have played. The other thing is that is strange is that Air Force has only played one game this entire year. Yeah, they played Tennesse tough and I think their QB Carney is good. I just don't think they have enough to hang with this well-coached (Joe Glenn is great) Wyoming team for four quarters. Plus, Wyoming is a very difficult place to play and Wyoming has a nice home field advantage up there.

Arkansas -2

This has been a game of much debate this week. Yeah, Arkansas got blown out by USC, but they did hang with them for a half and these guys have athletes. They will be starting freshman QB, Mitch Mustain. I must say that I'm impressed with this guy. This will be his third start and the home town loves him. He's got a great backfield behind him, led by outstanding RB Darren McFadden. This guy reminds me of Eric Dickerson when I see him run, with a little more burst. Also like WR Marcus Monk to make a couple of big plays in the air. People are still thinking that Alabama is this great defensive team and they're good, but not anywhere near last year's team. John Parker Wilson will be making the first road start of his career and Fayetville (where the Hogs have won over 70%of the games they've played there) will be rocking. Shula is not a good coach, he had good players last year and will be exposed this year. Houston Nutt isn't the greatest either, but I'd take him over Shula any day of the week. Hogs get it done here.

Remember guys, be smart, handicap well and have a lot of fun doing this!

GLTA

pags11

[bigboydan]

Interesting views on the Wyoming game pags. I too like them over AIR Force myself.


good luck with your plays

[pags11]

I think your selection of Air Force is interesting as well Dan...GL...

[kdmfox]

Gawwwwwd, I love UConn this week also ... The Fox

[crackerjack]

Pags, excellent analysis as usual...

Taking Wyoming is a little scary since AF's only game was coming within one point of knocking off nationally-ranked Tennessee on the road. Plus AF has had an extra week to prepare for this one. I have a slight lean on Wyoming, but I'd rather wait and see if AF is for real or if they just caught Tenn in a sandwich game. AF/Wyoming games are always close, no matter where they play. This will probably be a pass until I can get a better handle on Air Force. (I know the SID there and he told me before the Tenn game that AF was really young and were going to struggle this year. I bet against them, laying three TDs, and you know how that worked out...)

I do like BC...NC State's program is in shambles. And Utah will roll over SDSU -- I have them winning by 2 or 3 TDs minimum.

[clonecat]

Good luck Pags, although from the looks of your picks you shouldn't need much luck, - like the majority of your picks - especially Arkansas and Uconn

[Jay Edgar]

Bravo, Pags. As usual.

I'm not following CFB nearly closely enough to have an opinion, other than this: it would be a wonderful world if every pick-poster had enough drive and smarts to offer just a fraction of this quantity of analysis.

Maybe there ought to be a law . . .

[kdmfox]

pags ... I just got off the phone with my son and he's all over me with Notre Dame (-3) at Mich St. as his best pick of the day ... I just chuckled at that one ... Any quick thoughts?

[chadwick]

Pags, thanks for the great writeups...I always enjoy your insight and picks.

[pags11]

fox,

GL to us with UConn...no real opinion on ND vs. MSU...should be a great game to watch and will probably come down to the fourth quarter...

crackerjack,

I understand your thoughts with Wyoming...I think a lot of the public remembers that game with Tennesse as well...just going with my gut here...

clonecat,

appreciate it bro...

jay edgar,

I appreciate the kind words my friend...GL...

chadwick,

thanks my friend...BOL to you this weekend...

[Aces]

Opposite side of you on the Alabama game. I pounded the money line at +120. Opposite side on Troy as well. GL with your card this week Pags.

[pags11]

Aces,

sorry to hear it...GL to you this week bud...

[LVHerbie]

really like the bowling green play pag... I don't see Kent hanging around in that one... I saw the nebraska -21 line ealier in this week and decided to sleep on it (as I don't like to bet my team) and was pissed to wake up and see it moved up on me... you deffiently got the best of that spread and I agree that I think it is a good play at current price, but I hate playing after losing a couple points so I'm going to stuck on sidelines of that game... good luck with the rest of them too...

[pags11]

LVherbie,

thanks bud...excellent thoughts as well...GL tommorrow...

[Razz]

Good luck pags, you know I LOVE Arkansas this week - hell, they rushed for 257 against a lot better Tide defense in Tuscaloser last year w/o any threat of a passing game. No telling what they do today. Mustain is the real deal, and he will be a star in Fayetteville, and I think this is his coming-out party - I don't know why he didn't start against USC. Great points about Shula and Johnnie Walker Wilson (as we call him because of his DUIs).

[pags11]

razz,

thanks bud...good points about the rushing yardage too...I just think people still think this is the Bama defense of the last couple of years and underestimate the playmakers Arkansas has...I like Mustain a lot as well...GL...

[jaffers]

must be alot of late money coming in on kent today as the closer we get to gametime the more that line shakes down... bowling green -6 now at cris

this from toledo blade:

"The BGSU secondary will be trying to combat Edelman and his biggest target, receiver Najah Pruden (five catches, 145 yards last week) without starting safety P.J. Mahone, who will not play because of a shoulder stinger.

"It's something that happened last week, and we probably should not have played him Saturday night," Brandon said. "We hope it quiets down this week and we get him back for Ohio."

Cornerback Antonio Smith will play but his ankle is still not 100 percent after he sprained it against Wisconsin.

"He can run straight ahead but he has trouble changing direction," Brandon said.

The young secondary already has faced challenges, though, and continues to welcome them.
Kent State broke an 18-year road losing streak at Miami last week and is trying to win in Perry Stadium for the first time since 1972."


this is tough i initially loved bgsu but am not so sure about it anymore... i will try to just not play the game....but if this line keeps going down i might hit up bgsu yet... good luck on your plays

[pags11]

jaffers,

B.G. is having some major breakdowns defensively in the first half...excellent job on the research...

[bigboydan]

pags, let me get your thoughts on this ECU/WV game today. I'm leaning towards ECU in this game.

[Philavanh]

Thanx again for your opinion on the games, like always I like your picks, if ever a doubt in my mind regarding ur picks I don't even play that game.........U da MAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[pags11]

Dan,

sorry I didn't get to this post sooner...would have told you to stay off the game as fading WVU is hazardous to your health...don't know if that would have helped any...

phil,

I do appreciate the kind words bud...didn't have as good of a week as I wanted to, but have to keep working...

[bigboydan]

It's a good thing for me then that you got back to me late, because you might have talked me out of it

[pags11]

gentlmen,

I'm a little dissapointed in my performance today...just thought I'd summarize the day here...

Bowling Green was just a flat out bad call, IMGV and others were completely right that Kent St. was the right side...congrats again to them...I do think I'll stay off MAC games for the time being as they are totally unpredictable...

the Arkansas game...where do I start with that one?...first off I could have had Arkansas pick right when the lines came out at PK...could have also had it at -1, but played it in between at -2...holy shit, what a wacky game...I will not be betting on Arkansas the rest of the year, as Mustain is not near the QB I thought he was...I was very impressed with John Parker Wilson but won't play Alabama as Shula just frustrates me...by far my toughest loss of the season...

B.C...right when they missed the XP, I knew something was up...especially laying 7...they had their chances to increase their lead, but let NCSU hang around and ultimately win...I don't know about you guys, but I root against teams that aren't gonna cover as favs to lose outright...god dang it...

Wyoming was a pretty well handicapped game...the two teams were truly even...ultimately the difference was the fumbled kickoff by Wyoming...not unhappy losing that one, that's just the way it goes...

I've got to tell you guys to stay away from UConn the rest of the season...even though they covered for us, they have major QB issues...good D, but I'm not touching them come big east play...

nailed it with Utah and Nebraska...onto next week...gonna go scower some box scores...

[hawk 5]

if you seen the day i had you'd feel a lot better about yours pags. gl next week.

[pags11]

hawk,

hang in there bud...I thought the linesmakers did a good job this week...just have to move onto next week...

[darkghost]

Looking forward to your write-ups pags. You've garnered my respect just in nailing that Utah game.

[pags11]

thanks darkghost...I thought it was the best play on the board and I'm glad it came through for us...thanks again...

[kalind]

wassup pags? good to see a.

killem this week

[pags11]

kalind,

good to see you too brother...glad you made your way over here...this guy is a good capper...

[kalind]

thnx pags but you are truly an information highway with cfb and i have much respect for ya. best of pickings to u this upcomin week